Not to discredit our drafting team

[Au165]

Wow, it's that easy? Wonder why all of the historically bad drafting teams never thought of that?

[CJD]

(05-05-2016, 09:19 AM)Au165 Wrote: Wow, it's that easy? Wonder why all of the historically bad drafting teams never thought of that?

Because they don't know they're bad drafting teams.

They think they have the inside info that other teams don't.

[Au165]

(05-05-2016, 09:21 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Because they don't know they're bad drafting teams.

They think they have the inside info that other teams don't.

They know they are bad drafting teams, in fact the Giants owner publicly stated they have been a bad drafting team, yet they took Eli Apple at 10. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have whiffed horribly at times, in fact they routinely only get 5 or 6 picks right in their mock drafts. If they were really as good as people think they are they would be GM's....but they aren't. The reality is the analysts don't know as much as they think they do. We took Billings in the 4th obviously they were much higher on him then any NFL team was. If we were just taking best available then we should have taken him in the 2nd and the 3rd. Remember when he proclaimed he'd see everyone at Det WR Mike Williams Hall of Fame ceremony?

It really does come across as ignorant that you think it is so easy. If it was that easy, everyone would do it.

[OrlandoBengal]

(05-04-2016, 12:15 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Idk. The Ravens have an all-time winning % (.542) that's the same as Marvin's win % (.543). Before last year, they hadn't had a losing season since 2007. They've won 15 playoff games, which is 3 times as many as the Bengals have won in 48 seasons. In addition to their 2 championships, they have 9 other winning seasons and 8 more playoff appearances. 

So basically I think it's a bit much to say they've had crap teams outside of their championships. I don't think the Bengals have reached the point where we can thumb our noses at the Ravens or Ozzie. I'd trade our success for theirs without thinking twice, even after they had one bad season.

Now if we're talking about 2015 and odds of success in 2016, I like our team better than the Ravens...right now.

Exactly.  And that one terrible season was when they had like 20 players go on IR.  I think they get a pass for last year.

[Shake n Blake]

(05-05-2016, 11:33 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: Exactly.  And that one terrible season was when they had like 20 players go on IR.  I think they get a pass for last year.

Actually I wouldn't go that far. I do think the Ravens are trending down thanks to some bad recent drafts and losing some old cogs like Rice, Boldin, Lewis, Reed, Pitta, Ngata, etc etc. While I think it's ridiculous to say that the Ravens have been garbage outside of the 2 championships, I'm not impressed with their current roster.

That's not to say that Ozzie is a bad GM (everyone has some poor drafts) and I wouldn't totally count out the Ravens this year either, as I think they have a decent QB and a really good HC. That roster needs some rebuilding though. I just think it's silly for a Bengals fan to thumb their nose at a GM with 2 titles and a decade of dominance on his resume.

Even though I think the Ravens look like a 7-9 team on paper, I don't think they'll be down for long. 

[Hammerstripes]

(05-05-2016, 09:46 AM)Au165 Wrote: They know they are bad drafting teams, in fact the Giants owner publicly stated they have been a bad drafting team, yet they took Eli Apple at 10. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have whiffed horribly at times, in fact they routinely only get 5 or 6 picks right in their mock drafts. If they were really as good as people think they are they would be GM's....but they aren't. The reality is the analysts don't know as much as they think they do. We took Billings in the 4th obviously they were much higher on him then any NFL team was. If we were just taking best available then we should have taken him in the 2nd and the 3rd. Remember when he proclaimed he'd see everyone at Det WR Mike Williams Hall of Fame ceremony?

It really does come across as ignorant that you think it is so easy. If it was that easy, everyone would do it.

Getting picks correct in a mock draft isn't the sign of a good gm.  The reason people - even the best - only get 5 or 6 correct is because they can't forecast trades or the 1 surprise pick that has a ripple effect on everyone else's first rounder.

It would be interesting to see how a team did if they took Kiper's BPA in every round.  It would be an interesting turnout.

[Au165]

(05-05-2016, 12:11 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Getting picks correct in a mock draft isn't the sign of a good gm.  The reason people - even the best - only get 5 or 6 correct is because they can't forecast trades or the 1 surprise pick that has a ripple effect on everyone else's first rounder.

It would be interesting to see how a team did if they took Kiper's BPA in every round.  It would be an interesting turnout.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/

Little old but still proves the point.

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-05-2016, 12:07 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Actually I wouldn't go that far. I do think the Ravens are trending down thanks to some bad recent drafts and losing some old cogs like Rice, Boldin, Lewis, Reed, Pitta, Ngata, etc etc. While I think it's ridiculous to say that the Ravens have been garbage outside of the 2 championships, I'm not impressed with their current roster.

That's not to say that Ozzie is a bad GM (everyone has some poor drafts) and I wouldn't totally count out the Ravens this year either, as I think they have a decent QB and a really good HC. That roster needs some rebuilding though. I just think it's silly for a Bengals fan to thumb their nose at a GM with 2 titles and a decade of dominance on his resume.

Even though I think the Ravens look like a 7-9 team on paper, I don't think they'll be down for long. 

He technically wasn't GM until the 2002 season, so you could say the first title wasn't really his  (he was a front office executive just not the GM). I suppose you could say he and Marvin Lewis share that title.

I believe Ozzie is very good at bringing in quality free agents (mason, boldin, steve smith) and retaining their star players, but just looking at their roster right now, I'm not sure how a top notch GM could allow a team to fall into this hole. Their roster is depleted at almost every position (no one on that team scares me anymore), and you have to believe its because they decided to pay Flacco the big bucks.. fwiw the Ravens had some really great 1st round picks from 2002 - 2009 (Reed, Suggs, Flacco, Oher, Ngata etc) but the last 3 drafts (Matt Elam, C.J. Mosely and Breshard Perriman) haven't really lived up to expectations yet. They always say this is a "what have you done for me lately" league, and they havent been as good at drafting the last few years.

Anyways, saying they had "mostly crap seasons" was a bit of a stretch, but hey, they are a rival, so I probably brain washed myself into thinking that just because. The only times I watch them is when we play them, and we have their number, so that probably also aids my perception of them.

 

[CJD]

(05-05-2016, 09:46 AM)Au165 Wrote: They know they are bad drafting teams, in fact the Giants owner publicly stated they have been a bad drafting team, yet they took Eli Apple at 10. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have whiffed horribly at times, in fact they routinely only get 5 or 6 picks right in their mock drafts. If they were really as good as people think they are they would be GM's....but they aren't. The reality is the analysts don't know as much as they think they do. We took Billings in the 4th obviously they were much higher on him then any NFL team was. If we were just taking best available then we should have taken him in the 2nd and the 3rd. Remember when he proclaimed he'd see everyone at Det WR Mike Williams Hall of Fame ceremony?

It really does come across as ignorant that you think it is so easy. If it was that easy, everyone would do it.

I never said drafting was easy...but appreciate the words being put in my mouth.

I merely said that, "if our best picks were just us picking what the media pundits had coined as the best players at the time of our pick.....couldn't you or I theoretically draft just as well as the Bengals?"



I'm pointing out the curiosity behind us being acclaimed as great drafters when the picks that define us as great drafters are the picks that make the pundits go wild.


Our drafts have gotten a lot of acclaim, but are never really re-visited a few years later. Devon Still was met with rave reviews because he was projected as a first rounder.


Then he became a bust.


The concept of draft grades is so bizarre to me because the only people who get good grades are the teams that draft players that the media pundits already think are great.


It would be different if a team's draft made people go back and watch film to try to justify why a team would draft a relative unknown in the 2nd or 3rd round. Instead, they just assign it a "millen" grade and move on.


And then the next year, they follow the same formula.


I love the way we draft because it creates optimism. We drafted guys we know. We recognize their names and have watched their highlight films. But if so much fan fare is going to occur directly after the draft, why is there never any real coverage of how the draft turned out.


Sure, they do an article 3 or 4 years out calling for a redraft of the first round, but it's never heavily publicized and it's usually a one off article.


I hear it a lot when looking at the Baltimore Ravens. In Ozzie we trust and all that shit. He has a great draft every year.


Then, his team does not perform. Here are some of his amazing picks that have not really worked out:




Timmy Jernigan
Matt Elam

Arthur Brown
Courtney Upshaw
Bernard Pierce
Jimmy Smith
Torrey Smirth
Tanden Doss
Sergio Kindle
Terrence Cody
Arthur Jones
Michael Oher
Tavares Gooden


All of these players were considered steals at their respective draft positions. The pundits had them rated high and they fell for whatever reason. And all of them had middling careers or worse.

They never once examined why they fell, they just gave them A+ grades for having the foresight to draft the player that everyone in America was watching fall in the draft.

And the Bengals have done similar things as well.

My question is should we be excited about a draft filled with "steals" when, in reality, they were just very publicly known players that any one of us could have chosen?

[Shake n Blake]

(05-05-2016, 02:16 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: 1. He technically wasn't GM until the 2002 season, so you could say the first title wasn't really his  (he was a front office executive just not the GM). I suppose you could say he and Marvin Lewis share that title.

I believe Ozzie is very good at bringing in quality free agents (mason, boldin, steve smith) and retaining their star players, but just looking at their roster right now, I'm not sure how a top notch GM could allow a team to fall into this hole. Their roster is depleted at almost every position (no one on that team scares me anymore), 2. and you have to believe its because they decided to pay Flacco the big bucks.. fwiw the Ravens had some really great 1st round picks from 2002 - 2009 (Reed, Suggs, Flacco, Oher, Ngata etc) but the last 3 drafts (Matt Elam, C.J. Mosely and Breshard Perriman) haven't really lived up to expectations yet. They always say this is a "what have you done for me lately" league, and they havent been as good at drafting the last few years.

Anyways, saying they had "mostly crap seasons" was a bit of a stretch, but hey, they are a rival, so I probably brain washed myself into thinking that just because. 3. The only times I watch them is when we play them, and we have their number, so that probably also aids my perception of them.

1. Well I'm going to believe that Ozzie was the brains even back then because it makes sense and it helps my case.  

2. I've always said that the Ravens were put into a pickle with Flacco. How many times does a young QB win SB MVP in a contract year? Talk about jackpot. What were the Ravens going to do? Tell their fans they let their young SB QB go over a few million bucks? I'm sure that would've gone over well. But yeah, the Flacco contract has hurt them somewhat and I can't blame Ozzie for that.

I look at the Ravens like this. They're going through a transitional phase like we did in 2010. Will they rebound in a year or two? Who knows? I'd gladly trade places with them seeing how their fans can always look back on fond memories of titles in 2000 and 2012. Plus - if I'm betting - I think the Ravens will be competitive again with 1-3 seasons. As we've seen with Atkins/Dunlap/Green/Dalton, it only takes hitting on a few draft picks. They already have a decent QB, so we'll see.

3. Yes we do own them, thank goodness. Unfortunately I feel like the Steelers are to us what we are to the Ravens. Then Steelers/Ravens games are always competitive. Such a weird division.

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-05-2016, 08:04 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: 1. Well I'm going to believe that Ozzie was the brains even back then because it makes sense and it helps my case.  

2. I've always said that the Ravens were put into a pickle with Flacco. How many times does a young QB win SB MVP in a contract year? Talk about jackpot. What were the Ravens going to do? Tell their fans they let their young SB QB go over a few million bucks? I'm sure that would've gone over well. But yeah, the Flacco contract has hurt them somewhat and I can't blame Ozzie for that.

I look at the Ravens like this. They're going through a transitional phase like we did in 2010. Will they rebound in a year or two? Who knows? I'd gladly trade places with them seeing how their fans can always look back on fond memories of titles in 2000 and 2012. Plus - if I'm betting - I think the Ravens will be competitive again with 1-3 seasons. As we've seen with Atkins/Dunlap/Green/Dalton, it only takes hitting on a few draft picks. They already have a decent QB, so we'll see.

3. Yes we do own them, thank goodness. Unfortunately I feel like the Steelers are to us what we are to the Ravens. Then Steelers/Ravens games are always competitive. Such a weird division.

2. Ya, you're right, not much they could do after that amazing Flacco playoff run. Then again, coaches like BB don't give a **** about what fans think. Example being they traded Chandler Jones to the Cardinals this offseason, I don't think the fans were too pleased (But I get it, QB is a much different beast and much harder to cut ties with).

tbh I think the ravens need a good running game again. When I think of their superbowls I think of Jamaal Lewis and Ray Rice churning out short yardage situations and keeping their D off the field. Until they fix their running problems, Flacco will struggle and the defense in turn will struggle. I was surprised when they didn't go for a RB in round 2 this year.

[Shake n Blake]

(05-05-2016, 08:16 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: tbh I think the ravens need a good running game again. When I think of their superbowls I think of Jamaal Lewis and Ray Rice churning out short yardage situations and keeping their D off the field. Until they fix their running problems, Flacco will struggle and the defense in turn will struggle. I was surprised when they didn't go for a RB in round 2 this year.

No doubt. They always won with running and defense. That philosophy seemed to change after Flacco got his big contract and Rice knocked out his GF. In Flacco's first 5 seasons, he averaged 31.1 attempts per game. In 3 seasons since the SB and the contract, he's averaged 37.6 attempts. That's a huge jump.

Fwiw, even though they didn't go after a RB as early as I thought they would, they did double dip with Dixon in the 4th and Reynolds in the 6th. 

[SunsetBengal]

(05-05-2016, 08:35 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: No doubt. They always won with running and defense. That philosophy seemed to change after Flacco got his big contract and Rice knocked out his GF. In Flacco's first 5 seasons, he averaged 31.1 attempts per game. In 3 seasons since the SB and the contract, he's averaged 37.6 attempts. That's a huge jump.

Fwiw, even though they didn't go after a RB as early as I thought they would, they did double dip with Dixon in the 4th and Reynolds in the 6th. 

I would say that the running game issues have more to do with the decline of their OL, than it does with backfield personnel.  If they fix the OL problems, and they did draft the OT that they claim to have had highest on their board...  It could mean trouble for the rest of the division.  Baltimore lost a lot of games last year, by a few points, games that they were used to winning by a few points.  It would likely be a mistake to take them lightly, coming off of a rare bad season.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-04-2016, 12:15 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Idk. The Ravens have an all-time winning % (.542) that's the same as Marvin's win % (.543). Before last year, they hadn't had a losing season since 2007. They've won 15 playoff games, which is 3 times as many as the Bengals have won in 48 seasons. In addition to their 2 championships, they have 9 other winning seasons and 8 more playoff appearances. 

So basically I think it's a bit much to say they've had crap teams outside of their championships. I don't think the Bengals have reached the point where we can thumb our noses at the Ravens or Ozzie. I'd trade our success for theirs without thinking twice, even after they had one bad season.

Now if we're talking about 2015 and odds of success in 2016, I like our team better than the Ravens...right now.

The same people who are giving the Ravens crap for one bad season are likely the same people who excuse Marvin Lews' bajillion years of Bengals coaching with 0 playoff wins because he's taken them to the playoffs 5 years in a row........ ignoring the fact that recently the Ravens had won a playoff game in 5 straight years, including playing in 2 AFC Championship games and winning a SB.

F the Ravens, but you can't deny that they have had a LOT of success in their short history.

[Hammerstripes]

(05-05-2016, 01:30 PM)Au165 Wrote: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/

Little old but still proves the point.

Yes and no.  That just shows a ranking of his "big board."  It would be interesting to see how teams stacked their boards in comparison to his.

As Jimmy Johnson used to say - my grandma can draft the first round - it's the rest that sets you apart.  Almost every "guru" has roughly 25 of the same players in their top 32.  

[EatonFan]

(05-04-2016, 08:31 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: And I will say that this is a bit of a devil's advocate position, because I love the way our team drafts, but I find it funny that we get "holy shit" reviews from the rest of the NFL for drafting players that those same commentators (Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, etc) had high on their boards.

For example, I was watching the draft on ESPN (don't have NFL Network or I would not be watching it on ESPN) and it seemed like, for each of our picks, we selected one of the top 5 guys in Mel Kiper's "Best Available players" that kept scrolling on the bottom.

It happened for Tyler Boyd, Andrew Billings, Christian Westerman and maybe even William Jackson III.

Hell, Andrew Billings was on Mel's best available board for like 2 and a half rounds by that point.

I loved the draft and I look forward to seeing how the other picks, such as Nick Vigil and Cody Core, work out. But if our best picks were just us picking what the media pundits had coined as the best players at the time of our pick.....couldn't you or I theoretically draft just as well as the Bengals?

If Billings was BPA available for like 2 1/2 rounds then if we were to draft we would have selected him instead of who the Bengals did for two rounds before taking Billings.

[fredtoast]

(05-05-2016, 02:51 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The concept of draft grades is so bizarre to me because the only people who get good grades are the teams that draft players that the media pundits already think are great.

I agree withthis point.

[TKUHL]

I've always thought it was funny when Mel would talk guys up and have them "best of the rest" players but, when a team picks them he goes ooh I think its a bit of a reach." Who the hell is Mel Kiper". I think it was Indy's GM that said that years ago during the draft. Pretty funny.

[jfkbengals]

(05-09-2016, 08:10 PM)TKUHL Wrote: I've always thought it was funny when Mel would talk guys up and have them "best of the rest" players but, when a team picks them he goes ooh I think its a bit of a reach." Who the hell is Mel Kiper". I think it was Indy's GM that said that years ago during the draft. Pretty funny.

It was our own Bill Tobin, who was the Colts GM at the time.


For those who don't know the story, they drafted Marshall Faulk instead of Trent Dilfer, and Kiper said that's why they stunk.

Tobin fired back live with that gem.

[TKUHL]

(05-09-2016, 09:04 PM)jfkbengals Wrote: It was our own Bill Tobin, who was the Colts GM at the time.


For those who don't know the story, they drafted Marshall Faulk instead of Trent Dilfer, and Kiper said that's why they stunk.

Tobin fired back live with that gem.

Your right. Good Job.