So, people who love Vigil hate Billings, right?

[Essex Johnson]

(05-24-2016, 09:46 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I've been reading a lot about Nick Vigil. He was hyped a lot when we first drafted him and he's now being mentioned in Bengals articles and being complimented by Vontaze Burfict here:
http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/OTAs-a-GO/fbc61349-df13-4c2f-8d47-c9fca3b8d42c

And before I start, yes, the title is a little...intentionally eye catching?

I dunno. the point of the title is to compare the pre-draft ratings and the fanbase's perceptions of a player based on where they are drafted.

We have, on one hand, a guy who, according to the draft pundits, was a first round pick, guaranteed to be gone by the 2nd round. He is big, strong, fast, stout at defensive tackle. Almost the perfect nose tackle, but is a few inches too short and is a little too young and raw. Atkins proved that height doesn't have to hold a DT back and being young is rarely a bad thing, so it stands to reason that Billings could be equally successful in his role.

On the other hand, we have a player who was considered a fringe prospect by most draft pundits. While he has good instincts (something that can't be measured at a combine or pro day), he is considered to be too small, not athletic enough and generally, a mediocre LB prospect in Nick Vigil.

When Billings was drafted, the entire fan base celebrated (I truly believe every single person who calls themselves a Bengals fan loved that pick). We got a 1st or 2nd round pick in the 4th! Steal of the draft. Call it in guys, cuz we won this one! The pundits are completely right and this guy is going to be a star. The 31 teams that passed on him don't know what they're doing. Haha!

When Vigil was drafted, initially, there was a bit of confusion (mainly because Billings was still on the board at this point and people didn't get it.). Some negativity here and there, but many people were optimistic. When a report came out that Green Bay was planning on taking him with their pick coming up in the third round, people still questioned the pick here and there.

As the days went on, there were some outlets that called Vigil our best pick and others that called him a bad reach. Generally speaking, and with the assistance of players and coaches like Burfict comparing him to Luke K, the overall opinion of him in the fanbase became one unified voice. We got ANOTHER steal. The pundits don't know what they were talking about. Green Bay was going to draft him and they know what they're doing! This guy is going to be an amazing linebacker for us and all the draft pundits don't know what they're talking about!


My question is...which is it? Do you trust the draft pundits or don't you? If you do, you'd logically love the Billings pick and hate the Vigil pick. If you don't, you'd likely question why Billings dropped and you'd probably form your own opinion on Vigil, which may be a positive one (as it seems to be in the fanbase currently.)

Or, as we are all biased, is it just...we're gonna love every pick because the Bengals made them? We'll cherry pick the good and ignore the bad with just about everything the team does because we all, at our core, are hopeless optimists who want to believe we got the steal that no one else saw.

In my experience, the pundits are generally correct more often than the Bengals. Meaning, our late round picks that the pundits had rated high (such as Marvin Jones, George Iloka, AJ McCarron, Mohamed Sanu, Clint Boling, Vontaze Burfict etc) that slipped for no reason, generally, turn out better than the head scratching 'perceived reaches' that the Bengals quickly celebrate as steals (Margus Hunt, Will Clarke, Dontay Moch, Jerome Simpson, Kenny Irons etc).

If this trend continues, that means Billings will end up being a great player and Vigil will fizzle. That's not to say this formula is guaranteed. There have been 'perceived reaches' that worked out. I can't think of any, but I'm sure there are some. Likewise, there are highly rated players who dropped that haven't worked out as well (Devon Still, Orsen Charles, Brandon Ghee) but those are much more rare than the successes.

I like Vigil and I hope he plays well. We have taken productive college players that, theoretically, didn't project to the NFL well before and they have worked out. Geno Atkins fits that description pretty well, as does Andy Dalton and AJ McCarron.

But I'm getting a little confused with the amount of double speak going on in the fan base. If you trust the pundits on Billings (he'll be good), don't trust them on Vigil (he'll also be good) and love both picks, that just seems like homer-ism to me.

you seem to be taking this to an extreme position of all pundits hated the pick.. I listened and watch several pundits that liked the pick or would ok with it and I listened to some who thought it was a round reach...

I did not see or hear the polar opposite aspect of these two picks that you seem to have laid out by the pundits

[BURROWorBUST]

(05-24-2016, 09:59 AM)Au165 Wrote: You can like them both without it being homerisim. I personally like Billings even if he is only a 2 down DT because the game is going to more sub packages anyways so guys across the board are playing less and less. If all he does is stonewall runners every time he is in then he was well worth the 4th we spent and much more. If over time he can pass the rusher at least at an average competency then that's a bonus.

As for Vigil, I think being in an NFL weight program will help him add the needed weigh. The staff likes him a lot because he basically knows our scheme already. I think one of our issues with LB's over the years has been their inability to learn our scheme. With this kid already ahead of the curve there I think it will help him contribute early. Normally they act like these LB's are going to take a year or two, but they have said from day 1 he could see some playing time quickly. It doesn't hurt that Burffict loves the kid.

I don't worry about the pundits all that much because they are in a profession with 0 accountability for talking out of their ass. They say whatever they want, but no one checks them for the fact that they are wrong more often than right.

Vigil is the same size as Keuchely. He's big enough, but I agree that we needs to get stronger in order to excel at this level. The scary thing about Vigil is he's also as fast as Keuchely, and has similar instincts. If he becomes what they think he can become, he's going to be quite a player. I hope he stays healthy. 

[CJD]

(05-25-2016, 12:56 AM)Shady Wrote: Vigil is the same size as Keuchely. He's big enough, but I agree that we needs to get stronger in order to excel at this level. The scary thing about Vigil is he's also as fast as Keuchely, and has similar instincts. If he becomes what they think he can become, he's going to be quite a player. I hope he stays healthy. 

I feel like if this were true, and they were as close in skill and attributes as you are positing, he wouldn't have lasted until the third round, nor would he have been projected as a 4th to 5th rounder.

I hope Vigil becomes a contributor on this team, but expecting him to become Kuechly is just putting way too much expectation on the kid, in my opinion.

[CJD]

(05-24-2016, 10:49 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: This is a very good thread CJD, but i am a homer on this one.

Billings was the player i wanted in the first, but we got WJ3 who i was very happy with, Boyd came in the 2nd who i thought
was the 2nd best Slot receiver in this draft behind Sterling Shephard but Boyd has better hands. Then came Nick Vigil who i
thought was a head scratcher at the time for sure.

With more looking up Vigil i saw a very smart LB'er who can cover very well and has lots of rare talents. I like the pick.

In the end we got Andrew Billings and that is all i really care about. But it makes the Vigil pick much better no question.

Honestly, i would probably be hating the Vigil pick right now if we didn't get Billings and Westerman though, honestly.

Yea, if we missed out on Billings in the 4th round, I'm pretty sure the whole fan base would despise Nick Vigil haha.

[*SHRacerX*]

I confess that after being very happy with the selections of WJIII and Boyd (although my guy was Sterling Shepard, I like Boyd) that I was very disappointed in the selection of Vigil.

Here's why: You don't typically use picks 1-3 on guys that won't be starters. Otherwise, your starters will all come from the later rounds. There are only so many Geno Atkins out there. The selection of Vigil, not the player, but the position of LB was a real head-scratcher for me. The Bengals are in nickel roughly 66% of the time. Two LBs. Those two LBs are going to be a combination of Burfict and Dansby, Burfict and Rey, Burfict and Maualuga, and while Burfict is out, you will see more of Dansby. They also have another third round selection from last year, Paul Dawson, that you would like to see get more opportunities. Marquis Flowers has athleticism and is supposedly on the best coverage guys, but he has trouble staying healthy.

The bottom line is that for Vigil to get in on 33% of the snaps, you will have to remove one of the following: Burfict, Dansby, Maualuga, Rey, or Dawson... That is not many snaps.

Then I started to think about if Burfict was lost for an entire season, be it injury or suspension. Then the selection makes a bit more sense. I would still love to see more of PJ Dawson and Flowers won't likely make the team without an injury. And guys like Maualuga, Rey, and the FA Dansby aren't the youngest guys out there. A future starting tandem of Burfict and Vigil in nickel might be a solid corps, and maybe even Dawson and Vigil. In the rare base, Vigil is probably the best option at MLB if Maualuga is out or when he retires. Dansby could fill in there this year, but down the road, Vigil is probably there in base.

I viewed the fourth rounder Billings as a rotational player that will spell Peko on up to 50% of the plays when he gets his endurance up and understands his role. I think he will be an immediate impact on pass rushing situations. That is what had me so excited. To hear that he isn't going to necessarily blow by people but he has enough speed to get a guy moving and then just mow him back to the QB. We haven't really had a rotational DT like that to put next to Geno. There is no way Billings will be double teamed with Geno out there. You can imagine the pocket folding right in the face of opposing QBs and it just makes me grin ear-to-ear. That is why I wanted Billings over the LB position. The fact that we got both might just have been luck, but I will take it.

[Atomic Orange]

"Then I started to think about if Burfict was lost for an entire season, be it injury or suspension. Then the selection makes a bit more sense."

My guess is that's why they got him

[RunKijanaRun]

There's no reason for mutual exclusivity here.

I loved the Billings pick and hated the Vigil pick.

But that's because I think Billings is going to be an excellent player and Vigil appears to me to have the career trajectory of a scout team player. I would love to be wrong about him. But the point remains...seems a little silly to draw these seemingly pointless lines of bifurcation in the sand.

[Mike M (the other one)]

I liked both picks.
Billings is a victim of a very deep DT class in this draft, but I love that he fell to the 4th and we still managed to get him.

Virgil was a sneak pick, but I liked it shortly after we picked him and I read up on him. He's one of those LB's we've been wanting for a while now (speed to cover the TE).

Yes I was shocked in the 3rd, because I figured Billings would be the pick, but very happy he was still there in the 4th.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-25-2016, 07:48 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Yea, if we missed out on Billings in the 4th round, I'm pretty sure the whole fan base would despise Nick Vigil haha.

Yeah, me included. But the Billings pick makes it a solid one.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-24-2016, 09:59 AM)Au165 Wrote: You can like them both without it being homerisim. I personally like Billings even if he is only a 2 down DT because the game is going to more sub packages anyways so guys across the board are playing less and less. If all he does is stonewall runners every time he is in then he was well worth the 4th we spent and much more. If over time he can pass the rusher at least at an average competency then that's a bonus.

As for Vigil, I think being in an NFL weight program will help him add the needed weigh. The staff likes him a lot because he basically knows our scheme already. I think one of our issues with LB's over the years has been their inability to learn our scheme. With this kid already ahead of the curve there I think it will help him contribute early. Normally they act like these LB's are going to take a year or two, but they have said from day 1 he could see some playing time quickly. It doesn't hurt that Burffict loves the kid.

I don't worry about the pundits all that much because they are in a profession with 0 accountability for talking out of their ass. They say whatever they want, but no one checks them for the fact that they are wrong more often than right.

(05-24-2016, 10:09 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: I have to scratch my head when I see people comparing him to Kuechly.  Those are very big comparisons, especially for a guy who is smaller, not supposed to be overly strong, and was projected between rounds 3-5.  I hope I'm wrong, but figure this is one of the annual instances of the boards picking a player and saying he is the next great one at his position (half the board had Margus Hunt pegged as the next J.J. Watt).

I heard that Vigil weighs more than Kuechly he is just shorter.

[grampahol]

Wait, pundits were telling us we were all gonna DIE on "Y2K" and the only way to survive was to rush out and buy all the bottled water you could get your hands on.
I didn't buy any and I'm still alive.
Oh, and Jeb! was the sure fire republican candidate who was going to be the savoir of the republican party.
I also didn't vote for Jeb!

[WrongVerb]

I liked Vigil enough that I would mock him to the Bengals in the 4th or 5th round. Billings never made it even to the third round that I can remember. Not that it matters because I think the pundits are full of crap and in the end nobody who isn't deep inside teams' draft rooms has any clue on these players.

That said, I don't care. I hope Vigil and Billings both become life-long Bengals, all-pros, and bring the team a Super Bowl victory.

[Bengal Dude]

I was more surprised than anything when we took Vigil. I knew very little about the guy. I hope he succeeds, but my expectations are also tempered. We just don't have a lot of luck when it comes to drafting LBs.

Also, there was a scout that said that an ideal draft lands you 3 great players. Anything more is a bonus. So I've been trying to contain my excitement towards the whole rookie class.

[Air Force 1]

No..Simply put I like both of them

[jj22]

I wasn't sold on the Vigil pick because the FO does so well with late round/UDFA Lb's I never thought LB was an option in the 3rd. Thought we had more pressing needs (Center, FS -this was before we re-signed Williams-, dt, de).

[Thundercloud]

First let me answer the question. I think the so-called pundits are right more than they're wrong. They just miss once in awhile, and we like to call them on it.

As to the picks, I would have been fine with Billings in the first, especially with all those receivers gone, so I was just happy to get him under any circumstances.

Vigil sort of gave me a WTF moment since I didn't know anything about him, but after reading our coaches comments after some of the on field activities, I'm thinking that they seem very happy with him. It would be a nice steal if he comes on strong. I've always wanted us to spend some higher picks on linebackers.

[Brownshoe]

(05-31-2016, 04:55 PM)Thundercloud Wrote: First let me answer the question.  I think the so-called pundits are right more than they're wrong. They just miss once in awhile, and we like to call them on it.

As to the picks, I would have been fine with Billings in the first, especially with all those receivers gone, so I was just happy to get him under any circumstances.

Vigil sort of gave me a WTF moment since I didn't know anything about him, but after reading our coaches comments after some of the on field activities, I'm thinking that they seem very happy with him. It would be a nice steal if he comes on strong.  I've always wanted us to spend some higher picks on linebackers.

No their not.

[grampahol]

Pundits are full of themselves. If you think they're usually right then you probably believe that the Bengals will finish last in the division every year and Pittsburgh deserves to win the super bowl every year.
They've seldom right and worse, seldom called to task for being wrong most of the time. They get a bigger break than the weather forcasters.