What Bets Should I Put On The Bengals?

[J24]

(06-25-2015, 08:28 AM)djs7685 Wrote: These are the homer bets that I mentioned not making earlier.

Brad, any personal issues aside, please don't make stupid bets lol it's so frustrating to see people constantly lose due to really, really bad bets.

Not talking about winning the division BTW, that's entirely possible. I wouldn't take it personally, but it would at least be reasonable. #1 defense is flat out dumb

 From 2011-2013 we were a  top 10 defense. 2011 7th, 2012 6th, and in 2013 we were 3rd.  Yes we were 20th in overall defense last season but we also had things working against us. #1 adjusting to a new defensive coordinator, #2 losing the heart and soul of the defense in Vontaz, #3 Losing Michael Johnson in free agency, and #4 Geno was not his all pro self last year. Even with those things working against us we were still top 10 in every pass defense category last season except for total passing yards and sacks. Our run defense struggled last season but keep in mind we were 31st in rush defense prior to the return of Rey M and after is return we jumped 11 spots to 20th.
This upcoming season we will be in our second year with Guenther, Vontaz will probably be back and starting at some point during the season plus we have better depth at that position with Hawk and Dawson there, Michael Johnson rejoined our team this off season, and most importantly Geno according to off season reports looks like his old self. If Geno regains his old form then that by itself  puts us back as a  top 10 defenses. Also keep in mind the last time Geno, Dunlap, Johnson, and Gilberry all finished the season healthy together our team had over 51 sacks in that season.
I am not saying flat out that this defense will finish the season #1 overall but I certainly think they can regain being a top 10 defense at the very least and very easily could be a top 5 defense if both Geno and Vontaz are themselves once again. I am not even sure if Vegas does bets like this but if they do I imagine the odds of them being #1 are relatively low & you probably could put a tiny sum of money on them and get a big sum of money in return if they do become the #1 defense. Which in actuality makes this a pretty good bet.
   

[djs7685]

(06-30-2015, 03:07 AM)J24 Wrote:  From 2011-2013 we were a  top 10 defense. 2011 7th, 2012 6th, and in 2013 we were 3rd.  Yes we were 20th in overall defense last season but we also had things working against us. #1 adjusting to a new defensive coordinator, #2 losing the heart and soul of the defense in Vontaz, #3 Losing Michael Johnson in free agency, and #4 Geno was not his all pro self last year. Even with those things working against us we were still top 10 in every pass defense category last season except for total passing yards and sacks. Our run defense struggled last season but keep in mind we were 31st in rush defense prior to the return of Rey M and after is return we jumped 11 spots to 20th.
This upcoming season we will be in our second year with Guenther, Vontaz will probably be back and starting at some point during the season plus we have better depth at that position with Hawk and Dawson there, Michael Johnson rejoined our team this off season, and most importantly Geno according to off season reports looks like his old self. If Geno regains his old form then that by itself  puts us back as a  top 10 defenses. Also keep in mind the last time Geno, Dunlap, Johnson, and Gilberry all finished the season healthy together our team had over 51 sacks in that season.
I am not saying flat out that this defense will finish the season #1 overall but I certainly think they can regain being a top 10 defense at the very least and very easily could be a top 5 defense if both Geno and Vontaz are themselves once again. I am not even sure if Vegas does bets like this but if they do I imagine the odds of them being #1 are relatively low & you probably could put a tiny sum of money on them and get a big sum of money in return if they do become the #1 defense. Which in actuality makes this a pretty good bet.
   

Do you know how gambling works?

No, this isn't a good bet. Please stop.

Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely to happen? No. Is it a "smart bet" or a "good bet" in any capacity? Not unless you like throwing money out a window with disposable income. Stop saying it's a good bet, it's not.

To be honest, props and futures are rarely "good bets" in general.

[J24]

(06-30-2015, 08:52 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Do you know how gambling works?

No, this isn't a good bet. Please stop.

Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely to happen? No. Is it a "smart bet" or a "good bet" in any capacity? Not unless you like throwing money out a window with disposable income. Stop saying it's a good bet, it's not.

To be honest, props and futures are rarely "good bets" in general.

Do you understand how odds work?

[djs7685]

(06-30-2015, 11:33 AM)J24 Wrote: Do you understand how odds work?

Absolutely. I actually gamble on sports quite often.

It's very obvious that you don't. So please stop telling people what a "good bet" is.

This isn't just about an opinion on a message board, this is something that can actually affect people's real wallets. Someone that's interested in possibly getting into gambling may read a post like yours and fall for the trap that it's a "good bet", but it's not in reality. Stop it. You have NO idea what you're talking about when it comes to this subject.

[Tim_B]

(06-30-2015, 12:28 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Absolutely. I actually gamble on sports quite often.

It's very obvious that you don't. So please stop telling people what a "good bet" is.

This isn't just about an opinion on a message board, this is something that can actually affect people's real wallets. Someone that's interested in possibly getting into gambling may read a post like yours and fall for the trap that it's a "good bet", but it's not in reality. Stop it. You have NO idea what you're talking about when it comes to this subject.

If you're betting against the house there is no such thing as a good bet.

[BFritz21]

(06-30-2015, 01:05 PM)Tim_B Wrote: If you're betting against the house there is no such thing as a good bet.

In Roulette there is.........  put one bet on one twelve and another bet on a different twelve, and then you're basically guaranteed to win two-to-one, unless by some rare chance it hits zero or double zero, but it's a pretty good bet.

[lostpoet2]

I like the following:

Bengals over 8.5 wins, maybe Colts over 11 and Texans over 8.5 wins due to easy schedules, maybe Jets under 7.5 and Chargers under 8 wins

Bengals and Steelers each at +220 to win the AFCN (works as long as Ravens don't win the division)

Falcons and Panthers each at +200 to win the NFCS (a bet against the Saints and Buccaneers)

TJ Yeldon at 12/1 for offensive ROY-he should easily win the starting job, and the Jags don't have much else on offense.

Don't try to be a hero with parlays.

[fredtoast]

(06-30-2015, 01:44 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: In Roulette there is.........  put one bet on one twelve and another bet on a different twelve, and then you're basically guaranteed to win two-to-one, unless by some rare chance it hits zero or double zero, but it's a pretty good bet.

There are three groups of 12 not 2, so you there are 14 ways you lose (zero, double zero, and the third group of twelve).

Since the house only pays 2-to-1 on a 3-to-1 bet on the groups of 12 you actually have better odds playing a single number. The payout in that case (35 to 1) is actually much closer to the odds (37 to 1)