Point wise are the Bengals good enough to go deep in the postseason?

[BengalChris]

In the past three years victors of NFL playoff games, including SBs, have scored an average of 29.85 points per playoff game. Losers have scored an average of 19.3 points per playoff game. I computed these numbers by simply averaging the winning and losing scores of each playoff game for the last 3 years.

When we get to the SB, these numbers go up. The victor has scored an average of 35 points (this number is somewhat bloated by the Seattle blow out of Denver) and the loser 21 points (somewhat lowered by the 8 points Denver scored against Seattle). But overall SB scores are higher than other playoff games (at least for the last 3 years it has).


One point that doesn't have its own stat is the winner doesn't make major mistakes, while the loser generally does. Last year it was the play call to pass and the subsequent INT that killed Seattle on the last play. The year before it was the first play of the game where the OC hiked the ball over Manning's head giving Seattle a free TD. There were other mistakes in these games, but these two mistakes stood out as the biggest blunders.

Simply put, teams which can put up these points and give up this few points are going win most postseason games.


To score 30 points in a game, on average, requires 4 TDs and 1 FG or 3TDs and 3FGs or some combination approximate to that. That's 1TD per quarter, plus a bit. Or 5TDs if you are talking a SB win.

Is our offense good enough to do this against a team also good enough to be in the playoffs?


To give up 20 or fewer points requires the defense surrender only 2TDs and 2 FGs or 1 TD and 4 FGs or maybe 3TDs max. This is really giving up 10 points per half.

Is our defense good enough to do this against a team which is also good enough to be in the playoffs?

Are the Bengals good enough to not make any major mistakes in a playoff game?

[BengalChris]

As the roster is, I said no to the first two and yes to the 3rd on going a game without a major mistake.

To meet these point targets, it would be against top teams and I just don't see yet.

Any team that can meet these point targets generally against top competition should be a contender for the SB. I'd rather be thinking about what it takes to win a SB than thinking about what it takes to just make the playoffs. A different mindset.

[CornerBlitz]

I would say our offense is very talented and capable of scoring that many points with the exception of 1 position.

We haven't scored more than 10 points in any of the previous 4 playoff games so it's hard to predict a jump of averaging 30.

[BengalChris]

(07-09-2015, 01:12 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: I would say our offense is very talented and capable of scoring that many points with the exception of 1 position.

We haven't scored more than 10 points in any of the previous 4 playoff games so it's hard to predict a jump of averaging 30.

I hear ya. But if we want to win a SB, those are the numbers the team needs to be looking at.

Winning consistently against the best teams is a lot different than winning against the losers. But I don't think Mikey B can see that far. I'm on a beat up on Mikey bender today. Things are so much better for him now that he's not the complete laugh stock of all of professional sports and he seems quite comfortable with the way things are.

Even if a team could put up those numbers, on average, they wouldn't go to a SB each year, but they would actually be in the hunt like NE, GB, Denver, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Baltimore and Indy.

Losing in the wildcard round would warrant an overhaul where top teams are concerned. Denver loses in opening round and the head coach gets a pink slip. In San Fran they don't make the playoffs and the coach is sent back to the college ranks and the roster has been gutted. Teams from 2 of the last 3 SBs.

I'd love for the Bengals to get into that state of mind.

[Utts]

(07-09-2015, 01:12 AM)CornerBlitz Wrote: I would say our offense is very talented and capable of scoring that many points with the exception of 1 position.

We haven't scored more than 10 points in any of the previous 4 playoff games so it's hard to predict a jump of averaging 30.

On paper I see the potential for this, but I can't help feeling like Andy will be the hinderance. Also need to see what MLJ and Eifert are capable of over the course of an entire season.

[wolfkaosaun]

They did go an entire game without a major mistake, the Colts game.

They had one turnover, but that was in the 4th quarter when it was 10-26 with less than 3 minutes to go.

No one on offense was able to step up to get separation. Seriously. Sanu was the only receiver to catch a pass that game. Hewitt and Burkhead had as many receptions as Sanu too. They literally had no one to throw to.

Vontae Davis on Sanu? That's not fair.

Zero separation, defenders were always on the ball. Dalton had to put it in places no one else could get it. Colts had 9 passes defended.

So it's not just "don't make the mistake". Someone has to "make a play".

[BengalChris]

(07-09-2015, 03:58 AM)wolfkaosaun Wrote: They did go an entire game without a major mistake, the Colts game.

They had one turnover, but that was in the 4th quarter when it was 10-26 with less than 3 minutes to go.

No one on offense was able to step up to get separation. Seriously. Sanu was the only receiver to catch a pass that game. Hewitt and Burkhead had as many receptions as Sanu too. They literally had no one to throw to.

Vontae Davis on Sanu? That's not fair.

Zero separation, defenders were always on the ball. Dalton had to put it in places no one else could get it. Colts had 9 passes defended.

So it's not just "don't make the mistake". Someone has to "make a play".

If you want to go deep in the playoffs, you have to be able to do all three. Then you can be relatively certain that you will do well.

[fredtoast]

(07-09-2015, 04:46 AM)BengalChris Wrote: If you want to go deep in the playoffs, you have to be able to do all three.

Not true.

Just last year the Patriots won the SB despite giving up over 20 points in 2 of their 3 postseason games.

In 7 of the 11 postseason games last year the winning team scored fewer than 30 points, and in 5 of the 11 postseason games the winner gave up 20 points or more.