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AU165 Full First Round Mock with Analysis
#1
I was going to go two rounds, but decided 3400 words for round 1 was enough for now. I may jump into round 2 later depending on how I'm feeling.

1. Arizona Cardinals- Edge Nick Bosa OSU- The longer the Cardinals hold on to Rosen the less likely I think they move him. I truly believe they'd like to take Murray here, but I'm not sure GM Steve Keim can handle another top 10 QB pick that could potentially not work out. The safe pick here is Bosa and I think that is what the Cardinals do. Adding Bosa gives the defense the pass rusher they need and with some of the projected weapons still available in the 2nd I think they still add some elite talent to help Rosen out.


2. San Francisco 49ers- DL Quinnen Williams Alabama- I don't believe the 49'ers will make this pick here as GM John Lynch likes to move back when possible. I will go ahead and give them Williams here as I'm not mocking trades, but I don't think they keep this pick. The 49ers have really struggled to find quality interior D linemen over the last couple years. Solomon Thomas has not panned out and that is a bit of a problem. With their move to a one gap 4-3 Williams makes a lot of sense to step in and be the 3 technique that can provide the interior pass rush they desperately have been searching for.

3. New York Jets- Edge Josh Allen Kentucky- In my mind the Jets need a tackle more than they need edge help, but with no franchise tackle worth the 3rd overall pick I think they take Allen. This is another place where they would love to trade back and if Murray doesn't go to the Cardinals look for the Redskins or possibly even the Lions to attempt to come up to this position to snag their QB. In terms of Allen, what is there to say? He has flashed the ability to do it all from playing the run, to rushing the passer, and he can even hold up in coverage. Allen has the potential to take what could be a sneaky good defense next year and push it over the top.

4. Oakland Raiders- QB Dwayne Haskins OSU- I know you think I am crazy but hear me out. There is nothing John Gruden values more from his QB than the ability to work the whiteboard. If there is one thing all analyst agree on is Haskins is almost savant like in his play recall and ability to diagram plays. While I think Gruden swoons over Murray, it’s Haskins who captures his devotion in the end. Many will point to Carr and his $25 Million a year contract but in reality, they can move on from him next year for a $5 Million cap hit pretty easily. With Haskins only having one year of starting experience the redshirt approach makes a lot of sense here.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- DL Ed Oliver Houston- Many are putting a LB here, and that makes a lot of sense, however the staff there has hinted that they'd like a "versatile" defense. With McCoy by most reports on the outs they will need to find an interior pass rusher for their line. While they spent a top 10 pick last year on Vita Vea I think they are still in search of another piece. Ed Oliver gives them a versatile wrecking ball that can play all up and down the line and is athletic enough to even stand up at times. Testing at a ridiculous level the tape at times doesn't always match, but when it does it is something to behold.

6. New York Giants-Edge Montez Sweat Mississippi State- With Haskins gone I think QB is off the board here at 6. The O line got some love via trade with the addition of Kevin Zeitler and another tackle would be nice, but I think value is on the defensive side. I could see someone like Devin White here as they have a wasteland in terms of talent in the middle of this defense, however I think they go for a pass rusher. Sweat is a freak athlete but some people are going to question the production. On the surface the numbers look good but as you dive deeper a lot of the production came on the softer side of their schedule. I think he has a chance to be the pass rusher they need, especially with Vernon gone, but there is bust potential here. Ideally, I think they'd love for Allan to land here, but to be fair most teams would love a crack at Allan.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars- OT Jawaan Taylor Florida- The Jaguars as of today have now met with Taylor twice and I think their love affair makes it to the altar. With newly appointed "franchise" QB Nick Foles in place the focus now turns to helping him be successful. Foles really shined when he had time to throw and that is something the Jaguars won't be providing him without some serious investment here in the draft. The easiest way may be to get HB Leonard Fournette going in the run game, that is something Taylor can help with. Taylor is a somewhat late riser who shined in the running game last season and is a capable pass blocker. If the idea will be to get Fournette going and let Foles work off play action Taylor will go a long way in making teams respect the running game.

8. Detroit Lions- QB Kylar Murray Oklahoma- This one may come as a shock to people, but I think it makes sense. Head coach Matt Patricia comes from New England where they aren't opposed to going against conventional wisdom. While the height issues and other less serious concerns surround Murray Patricia saw firsthand the underdog story of Brady play out and I think the idea of a QB with a chip on his shoulder will excite him. Speaking of excitement, the city of Detroit needs something to get excited about and Kylar Murray will bring that in spades. Stafford's cap number makes him unmovable this year, however his $26 million cap hit next year makes it a little more palatable in today’s NFL and there will be teams open to taking it on.

9. Buffalo Bills- DL Dexter Lawrence Clemson- Dexter Lawrence has kind of become the forgotten man amongst a lot of people. Throughout the year the 340-pound nose tackle was a top run defender but also was able to push the pocket and disrupt the passing game of Clemson’s opponents. The Star Lotulelei experiment in Buffalo has fizzled out and with long time stalwart Kyle Williams gone Lawrence can step in and shore up the inside of the Bills D line.

10. Denver Broncos- LB Devin White LSU- Many people think Elway will chase a QB here, but I don’t think he does it again if for nothing more he can’t handle anymore ridicule for missing on them. White is arguably a top 5 talent in the draft, but finds himself just making it inside the top 10 but landing in a pretty good situation. The Broncos have the pass rush, but with veteran Brandon Marshall departing in FA the Broncos will need to shore up the middle of the linebacker group and they get the best man for the job here with White.

11. Cincinnati Bengals- LB Devin Bush Michigan- The Bengals have a tough decision here as Jonah Williams is on the board and could really help out a bad O line, however with a historically bad LB group last year, and with the departure of longtime headache Vontaze Burfict, the Bengals find their new age replacement. Bush has been a slow climber in the pre-draft process but much of that was due to fighting through historical measurement issues (Height of only 5’11). When you turn on the tape though you have a guy who has two very special skill sets, one being he can run and cover but two he can blitz from off the ball and did so at a rate better than almost anyone else in the country. The added bonus here is that Bush is only 20 currently, which would keep with the offseason youth movement in Cincy.

12. Green Bay Packers- TE T.J. Hockenson Iowa- Again Williams is on the board and again a team begrudgingly passes. Hockenson is a top-flight prospect from what has now become TE U. As Aaron Rodgers ages the window to win seems to be now and Hockenson provides Rodgers with a pass catcher who can add some more longevity to his career. Rodgers has made his career through busted plays and creating time but as he has aged this is becoming less and less effective. Hockenson will be the check down option he never really had at TE but will also provide a valuable run blocking asset to a running game that needs to be better for the Packers to win.

13. Miami Dolphins- OT Jonah Williams Alabama- Finally Williams hears his name called as the Dolphins plan for the future. Williams contrary to some trains of thought can play tackle in the NFL. Evidence of arm length and effectiveness as a tackle is sketchy at best and when you watch how he handled some of the best rushers in the nation you should rest easy with this pick. The Dolphins appear to be looking out a few years for their QB of the future so it makes sense to attempt to solidify the line before he arrives.


14. Atlanta Falcons- Edge Brian Burns Florida State- Atlanta could go a lot of ways here and it was difficult not to send Greedy Williams to the Falcons but I think in the end Quinn recognizes the value of pass rush and so Burns is the pick. Burns was credited with 69 pressures last season per PFF, the most of any power 5 player in the country. With Vic Beasley looking the like a bust it makes sense for the Falcons to swing again for a home run pass rusher.  

15. Washington Redskins- QB Drew Locke Missouri- While I am not allowing trades in this mock the rumor is the Redskins are interested in moving up for a QB. It all works out though for them in this scenario as Drew Lock falls to them at 15. Lock is visiting the Redskins this week and I think they will figure out the same thing the tape says, like most guys in this draft he may need a year or two to refine his tools but the talent is there. The Redskins made a move this offseason to bring in Case Keenum who can act as a stop gap for a season, or less if Lock is ready, as they look at life after Alex Smith.

16. Carolina Panthers- Edge Rashan Gary Michigan- Gary is an it of an enigma. I have heard some teams love him and some teams don’t even think he is a 1st round talent. The issue is his production just hasn’t matched what you’d expect from a guy as athletically gifted as the former #1 overall HS recruit. The Panthers need something though in terms of pass rush and at 16 I think it is worth the gamble for a guy with such high upside. If the edge isn’t the way to go with him he does have additional upside as an inside pass rusher in sub packages.  

17. New York Giants (via Browns)-OT Cody Ford Oklahoma- Ford is another guy people question if he is a tackle or guard at the next level, but I think his athleticism will allow him to be a very good tackle early in his career. This move basically completes the offensive line overhaul the Giants set out on over the last two years and should give star HB Saquan Barkley the best chance to succeed and in turn buy another year or two out of Eli Manning, who it appears the Giants are set on keeping around.

18. Minnesota Vikings-OT Andre Dillard Washington State- The Vikings invested a lot of money last season into Kirk Cousins and now it is time to invest some resources in keeping him upright. While the Vikings are upset Ford next off the board just one pick before they settle on possibly the best pass protecting tackle in this draft. Dillard is quick and athletic, but some questions remain about his ability to anchor the point of attack in the running game. If he can be serviceable in the run game this pick should yield big results for the passing attack.

19. Tennessee Titans- WR DK Metcalf Ole Miss- The Titans have struggled to find production from their WR’s for a while now. With a continued commitment to QB Marcus Mariota it means they need to continue to surround him with talent and Metcalf is possibly the most explosive WR in this class. A pairing of Corey Davis and Metcalf may provide the weapons to Tennessee to open up the box and let the underrated Derrick Henry continue on his break out season last year.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers- CB Byron Murphy Washington- The first CP comes off the board all the way at 20 to the Steelers and it isn’t who most would guess in Murphy. While the Steeelers have acknowledged the need to play more man in recent years they are still a zone team and Murphy is the best zone corner in this draft with the added bonuses of positive ball skills and a solid run defense. In the post Artie Burns era Murphy will give Steelers fans something to smile about.  


21. Seattle Seahawks- S Nasir Adderley Delaware- Earl Thomas isn’t walking through those doors which means it is time for Seattle to move forward from the Legion of Boom era. While the names change the scheme will remain the same which means Seattle will need a safety who can cover large areas in their single high defense. Adderley isn’t Earl Thomas, at least yet, but is impressive range and ability to play man should make him an instant starter in Seattle.

22. Baltimore Ravens- HB Josh Jacobs Alabama- Many expect the Ravens to go WR here, but I think they double down on the running attack and take the best back in the draft in Jacobs. While used sparingly at times in Alabama Jacobs showed late in the season and into the playoffs, he was an elite threat when given the ball. With Baltimore looking to continue the development of Lamar Jackson having a back who can carry a heavy workload will be paramount to their success.

23. Houston Texans- OC Garrett Bradburry NC State- This to me is a pick based on need but also value as I view Bradburry as one of the safest picks in the draft. You should be able to plug him in day 1 and have a 10-15 year starter at Center. Watson is the face of the Houston organization but he takes far too many hits for anyone’s liking and shoring up the center of the line alleviates the toughest kind of pressure for a QB to handle, the pressure right in his face up the middle.

24. Oakland Raiders (via Bears)- Edge Clelin Ferrell Clemson- The Raiders get their QB of the future early and come back around with the pick they acquired trading Khalil Mack to take what they hope will be his replacement in Ferrell. Many people will have Ferrell much higher, but I am a little but lower on him than most. I think he was a bit of a product of some really good interior rushers giving him very favorable one on one matchups, either way though at 24 this is a good value for Oakland.

25. Philadelphia Eagles-S Jonathan Abrams Mississippi State - Before recently the easy move here would have been HB, but with the recent trade for Jordan Howard that goes out the window. There aren’t a ton of holes on this team and so you have to project out a bit in terms of where they may come up. To me safety looks to be a place where they could plan for the future and Abrams offers a lot especially in the short run. Early on Abrams can find playing time in three safety sets as a nickel defender who can help with the loss of LB Jordan Hicks and provide a run stopping presence who can still cover in passing situations.

26. Indianapolis Colts- WR A.J. Brown Ole Miss- While the Colts signed big bodied catcher Devin Funchess for an unusually large contract, don’t let that fool you as they are still in search for more weapons for Andrew Luck. The other Brown (Marquise) is still on the board however the Colts look to the more complete Brown to pair with TY Hilton. Brown is an all-around WR who can play out of any position. He offers explosive plays that should force defenses to give TY Hilton less double and improved production.

27. Oakland Raiders (via Cowboys)- CB Greedy Williams LSU- Once believed to be a top 10 pick Williams finds himself all the way down at 27 and Gruden could not be happier. Williams is an athletic man corner whose athleticism allows him to make up for technical flaws. Oakland knows they need to be better in the secondary as former, and while they resigned Daryl Worley I think they’d still go for value here and look to improve.

28. Los Angeles Chargers- OG Chris Lindstrom Boston College- The Chargers have to find a way to keep Rivers upright and it makes sense to start on the inside of their line that has struggled to pass protect. While they have devoted resources to it in the last few years they haven’t yielded much in terms of results. Lindstrom is an instant upgrade to the Chargers line and should give them an anchor inside for the foreseeable future.

29. Kansas City Chiefs- WR Marquise Brown Oklahoma- This all comes down to what do we know about WR Tyreek Hill before draft night. You can’t simply replace Tyreek Hill; however, Brown is the closest thing in this draft in terms of explosiveness and potential impact on the way a defense plays a team. The Chiefs are so dependent on that gamer breaking ability that if Brown is an option at 29, they could consider adding Brown even if Hill is out of stormy waters.

30. Green Bay Packers (via Saints)- S Darnell Savage Maryland- Savage is one of the lesser known potential round 1 safety prospects, but some have said he could actually be the first safety off the board based on some rumors coming out now. PFF gave him an 86.0 grade last season and as a four-year starter he has the experience to step in early and contribute. While the Packers added Amos in the off season, opposite Josh Jones hasn’t inspired a lot of confidence in his ability to play across from him. Savage could be a nice upgrade to the backend of the Green Bay secondary.

31. Los Angeles Rams- OT/OG Dalton Risner Kansas State- While Andrew Whitworth’s return for this season is a big boost the Rams parted ways with guard Rodger Saffold this off season. Dalton Risner actually gives the Rams some options here as he can start out inside at guard and potentially move outside down the road (can actually play anywhere on the line) in a post Whitworth era. The reality though is Risner could be gone way before 31, but if he is here Risner could find himself as the future anchor of the Rams offensive line.

32. New England Patriots- DL Jeffery Simmons Mississippi State- I very easily could see the Patriots trading this pick to someone who wants Daniel Jones with the 5th year option, but again no trades in this mock. This is a classic value play by the Patriots and coach Bill Belichick. While interior D line is a need, I think this team has more of a need at edge rusher. With that said Simmons is a top 10 talent who because of injury and a prior off field incident will find himself sliding down the draft.
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#2
Really appreciate all the thought and hard work that went into this Au. Hope we either take Jonah Williams or Cody Ford though if this is the way it falls or trade back. I like Bush but we need a great tackler if we are going to take a Linebacker at 11 and Bush has had some problems in this department. Wouldn't hate this though.

Great work man.
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#3
(04-03-2019, 02:53 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Really appreciate all the thought and hard work that went into this Au. Hope we either take Jonah Williams or Cody Ford though if this is the way it falls or trade back. I like Bush but we need a great tackler if we are going to take a Linebacker at 11 and Bush has had some problems in this department. Wouldn't hate this though.

Great work man.

This is what I think happens, not what I want to happen (although I like Bush). I think the Bengals view LB as the immediate need and tackle as something they have more wiggle room on. While Hart didn't single handily derail the offense last year the LB group did derail any hope of a decent defense. Using this mock options in the 2nd/3rd at RT are still Sharping, Little, McGary, and Howard. I feel like any of those guys could play Rt at an above Bobby Hart level year one with good upside in year two.
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#4
(04-03-2019, 03:00 PM)Au165 Wrote: This is what I think happens, not what I want to happen (although I like Bush). I think the Bengals view LB as the immediate need and tackle as something they have more wiggle room on. While Hart didn't single handily derail the offense last year the LB group did derail any hope of a decent defense. Using this mock options in the 2nd/3rd at RT are still Sharping, Little, McGary, and Howard. I feel like any of those guys could play Rt at an above Bobby Hart level year one with good upside in year two.

Could happen, getting one of those OT's in the 2nd or 3rd sure would make me feel much better, i like Bush too. Just hope Tem can coach up his tackling cause we need a LB that can shut down those dump offs teams were using on us all of last year. I love Bush's athleticism and he is a great blitzer as you state and he is good in coverage.
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#5
(04-03-2019, 03:11 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Could happen, getting one of those OT's in the 2nd or 3rd sure would make me feel much better, i like Bush too. Just hope Tem can coach up his tackling cause we need a LB that can shut down those dump offs teams were using on us all of last year. I love Bush's athleticism and he is a great blitzer as you state and he is good in coverage.

At just 20 years old there is a lot of upside there. 
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#6
I agree with alot of the picks.

I'm not a fan of Dexter Lawrence in the top 10 even though I get why he could end up in buffalo. I also see Noah Fant climbing into the bottom of the first.
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#7
(04-03-2019, 03:26 PM)Synric Wrote: I agree with alot of the picks.

I'm not a fan of Dexter Lawrence in the top 10 even though I get why he could end up in buffalo. I also see Noah Fant climbing into the bottom of the first.

Lawrence was tough for me. 33 pressures a season, a top run stuffer, and agile as heck for 340 pounds. I think some people will love him and some people won't touch him. Buffalo just made a lot of sense because they basically wanted Star to be that guy once upon a time. I could see the Patriots going with him easily at 32 but that was just a value play. Other place I'd look is Oakland at 27 as he seems like a nice comparison to the recently departed Cook.
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#8
(04-03-2019, 03:26 PM)Synric Wrote: I agree with alot of the picks.

I'm not a fan of Dexter Lawrence in the top 10 even though I get why he could end up in buffalo. I also see Noah Fant climbing into the bottom of the first.

I agree and speaking of Clemson DT's, where is Wilkins? Loved that guy at Clemson.
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#9
(04-03-2019, 03:32 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I agree and speaking of Clemson DT's, where is Wilkins? Loved that guy at Clemson.

Problem was without doing trades I had a hard time finding a spot in the 1st which I know sounds crazy haha. After a certain point you start seeing teams not really with needs for him. I had considered him at 26 to the Colts but in the end decided they would get Luck a weapon. My other option was at 15 to the Falcons as a potential Jarrett replacement but they really need edge help. If all is okay with Hill 29 to the Chiefs is also in play.

This class is just so darn deep on the D line. I don't think he makes it out of the 1st, but I feel like he will be taken by a team that slides back to the late teens in some sort of run up for a QB. 
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#10
(04-03-2019, 03:35 PM)Au165 Wrote: Problem was without doing trades I had a hard time finding a spot in the 1st which I know sounds crazy haha. After a certain point you start seeing teams not really with needs for him. I had considered him at 26 to the Colts but in the end decided they would get Luck a weapon. My other option was at 15 to the Falcons as a potential Jarrett replacement but they really need edge help. If all is okay with Hill 29 to the Chiefs is also in play.

This class is just so darn deep on the D line. I don't think he makes it out of the 1st, but I feel like he will be taken by a team that slides back to the late teens in some sort of run up for a QB. 

Wild the way the draft can go that is for sure.

Hell i might take Wilkins at 11, well i would of if we already had gotten a good LB in FA.
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#11
(04-03-2019, 03:31 PM)Au165 Wrote: Lawrence was tough for me. 33 pressures a season, a top run stuffer, and agile as heck for 340 pounds. I think some people will love him and some people won't touch him. Buffalo just made a lot of sense because they basically wanted Star to be that guy once upon a time. I could see the Patriots going with him easily at 32 but that was just a value play. Other place I'd look is Oakland at 27 as he seems like a nice comparison to the recently departed Cook.

It's a shame Jeffery Simmons tore his ACL. He was the do it all interior defense linemen that would gave been that top 10 guy. Even on a line with Montez Sweat Simmons is noticeably explosive. I would have loved to take him at 11 to pair with Geno inside.
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#12
Thanks AU165, very good mock! I find myself also coming to believe that we go Bush in RD1. I'm not exactly 100% behind that, but won't throw in the towel. I have been thinking about my mock also and had Bush in RD1 and in RD2 Howard. Do you think it would be a reach for him in Rd2? My thinking is he can redshirt and come in from time to time and sub out Hart. Rd3 I'm kind of stuck but I will dig up somebody!
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#13
(04-03-2019, 04:26 PM)sandwedge Wrote: Thanks AU165, very good mock! I find myself also coming to believe that we go Bush in RD1. I'm not exactly 100% behind that, but won't throw in the towel. I have been thinking about my mock also and had Bush in RD1 and in RD2 Howard. Do you think it would be a reach for him in Rd2? My thinking is he can redshirt and come in from time to time and sub out Hart. Rd3 I'm kind of stuck but I will dig up somebody!

I like Howard in the late 2nd or early 3rd. I'd go with a McGary or a Little over him in the 2nd. 
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#14
(04-03-2019, 03:57 PM)Synric Wrote: It's a shame Jeffery Simmons tore his ACL. He was the do it all interior defense linemen that would gave been that top 10 guy. Even on a line with Montez Sweat Simmons is noticeably explosive. I would have loved to take him at 11 to pair with Geno inside.

Didn't know Simmons tore his ACL, that he was falling cause of the vid of him stomping a girl in High School.

Who knows how far he could fall with a torn ACL also.

Great talent though that is for sure, still wouldn't mind picking him up if he falls to the 3rd.
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#15
(04-03-2019, 04:31 PM)Au165 Wrote: I like Howard in the late 2nd or early 3rd. I'd go with a McGary or a Little over him in the 2nd. 

Sharping should be in this discussion also.
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#16
(04-03-2019, 04:36 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Sharping should be in this discussion also.

Yea I have him more in that Howard range, but he is also a viable day 2 option. 
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#17
(04-03-2019, 04:44 PM)Au165 Wrote: Yea I have him more in that Howard range, but he is also a viable day 2 option. 

Off topic but Yodny Cajuste is in for a big fall because hes having a hamstring surgery that will keep him out a few months. Between this surgery, the ankle that kept him out of the off season testing, the two knee injuries early in his college career, and finally the system that was holding both him and Andre Dillard back...I could see Cajuste in the 6th round
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#18
(04-03-2019, 05:04 PM)Synric Wrote: Off topic but Yodny Cajuste is in for a big fall because hes having a hamstring surgery that will keep him out a few months. Between this surgery, the ankle that kept him out of the off season testing, the two knee injuries early in his college career, and finally the system that was holding both him and Andre Dillard back...I could see Cajuste in the 6th round

Take him, got 3 picks there...
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#19
Wilkins is going to be a beast DT in the NFL. You may be right about Bush but I don't like it. I also would be shocked if the Bengals passed on Williams if he is there given the need for OT and injuries of Glenn.

My favorite would still be Hockenson. I know people think there are good TE later and there are some good ones. But if not White or Oliver at 11, then Wilkins or Hockenson please.

Bush may be a stud. I watched Big football and he is good. I just don't know. I could live with the pick but it would not make my day.
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#20
(04-03-2019, 05:31 PM)psychdoctor Wrote: Wilkins is going to be a beast DT in the NFL. You may be right about Bush but I don't like it. I also would be shocked if the Bengals passed on Williams if he is there given the need for OT and injuries of Glenn.

My favorite would still be Hockenson. I know people think there are good TE later and there are some good ones. But if not White or Oliver at 11, then Wilkins or Hockenson please.

Bush may be a stud. I watched Big football and he is good. I just don't know. I could live with the pick but it would not make my day.

As I mentioned, I just don’t think the Bengals think O line is as season killing as the LB hope right now. Even with Bobby Hart starting last year we had a good offense before injuries took us out. The linebacker group was bad at coverage from week 1 onward.

Hockenson is a stud but I’m not sure I see it with them paying Uzomah and bringing Eiffert back.
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