Coronavirus Information...who do you trust?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 01:42 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I already feel bad enough. Stop making it worse. 

Just imagine an $8M dollar work mistake. Talk about your uncomfortable conversations. You totally F’ed up that decimal point.

[Belsnickel]

(09-16-2020, 01:47 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Just imagine an $8M dollar work mistake. Talk about your uncomfortable conversations. You totally F’ed up that decimal point.

Yeah, it's always interesting when those sorts of things happen. We're currently compiling financial statements at my job and usually there is at least one of those sorts of arithmetic mistakes made. But since there are like three levels of review they are always caught.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 01:41 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: My mother was a math professor and the number of times I've had to help her with math on the fly is hilarious.

My wife is an accountant. Probably just tired of dealing with numbers. And the meeting! And the pre-meetings to talk about what they’re going to talk about during the meeting. Jesus! At one point I thought I might like to be a board member of an organization. Then I sat through a school board meeting. Jesus Christ! If you eliminated everyone thanking everyone for coming the meeting would be half as long. One member read a damn poem I once heard on chilldren’s television network. Then they all talked about the emails they got from parents and one even bragged upon checking his emails in real time during the meeting. It took 90 minutes just to get to the damn vote which was the whole reason for me watching the meeting. It was worse than watching paint dry. That ended any idea I ever wanted to be a board member for anything.

[Belsnickel]

(09-16-2020, 01:57 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: My wife is an accountant. Probably just tired of dealing with numbers. And the meeting! And the pre-meetings to talk about what they’re going to talk about during the meeting. Jesus! At one point I thought I might like to be a board member of an organization. Then I sat through a school board meeting. Jesus Christ! If you eliminated everyone thanking everyone for coming the meeting would be half as long. One member read a damn poem I once heard on chilldren’s television network. Then they all talked about the emails they got from parents and one even bragged upon checking his emails in real time during the meeting. It took 90 minutes just to get to the damn vote which was the whole reason for me watching the meeting. It was worse than watching paint dry. That ended any idea I ever wanted to be a board member for anything.

I'm an accountant, I chair my city's Board of Zoning Appeals, I chair a board for a local non-profit, and I'm on the district committee for my local Scouting district. Believe me when I say I know what you're talking about.

[*PhilHos*]

(09-16-2020, 01:47 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Just imagine an $8M dollar work mistake. Talk about your uncomfortable conversations. You totally F’ed up that decimal point.

That actually happened to a former coworker of mine.

She wrote a cashier's check for a customer that was supposed to be for $8,000. she messed up the decimal point and wrote it for $800,000. 

Like I said, she's a FORMER coworker of mine.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 11:55 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Ok, so, let's pause for a moment and look at your numbers.

First, mortality rate is based off of the number infected, not the entire population. So 200k/6.61M is 3% mortality rate overall. I'm not sure why people have been continually trying to do that math differently, but it's getting old.

Then, your last figure of the infected population is just wrong. 6.61M/325M is 2% of the population, not 0.018%.

I like my numbers better.  :)

6,610,000 million / 325,000,000 is .02033

And I stand by what I said, the numbers don't come anywhere remotely close to lock down and destroy the economy plus all the ancillary harm that no one want to talk about.  I also have not seen any hard evidence that shows lock downs help.  I am not trying to argue, nor do I want to.  I understand it's not popular, but it does not necessarily mean it's wrong.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 10:16 AM)Nately120 Wrote: Opening fully with no masks and protecting the at risk the best we can seems like a conflicting statement.

No it's not.  At risk should wear masks and limit their contact the best they can.  For nursing homes they should take all necessary precautions.  That's a super simple list, but you get the idea.

[Belsnickel]

(09-16-2020, 02:04 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I like my numbers better.  :)

6,610,000 million / 325,000,000 is .02033

Which is 2%...

(09-16-2020, 02:04 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: And I stand by what I said, the numbers don't come anywhere remotely close to lock down and destroy the economy plus all the ancillary harm that no one want to talk about.  I also have not seen any hard evidence that shows lock downs help.  I am not trying to argue, nor do I want to.  I understand it's not popular, but it does not necessarily mean it's wrong.

The problem is that you could never truly establish a causal link, but correlative evidence does exist. We see cases drop when closures happen and rise when restrictions are lifted. Cases in my city skyrocketed with the university being back in session. Once the students were removed from the classrooms and things closed back down, we saw a decline in cases. The correlative evidence is there.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 02:04 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I like my numbers better.  :)

6,610,000 million / 325,000,000 is .02033

And I stand by what I said, the numbers don't come anywhere remotely close to lock down and destroy the economy plus all the ancillary harm that no one want to talk about.  I also have not seen any hard evidence that shows lock downs help.  I am not trying to argue, nor do I want to.  I understand it's not popular, but it does not necessarily mean it's wrong.

1+1=3. I know it’s not popular. But, that does not necessarily mean it’s wrong.

[*Nately120*]

(09-16-2020, 02:07 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: No it's not.  At risk should wear masks and limit their contact the best they can.  For nursing homes they should take all necessary precautions.  That's a super simple list, but you get the idea.

I maintain that saying we should limit the risk to the at risk the "best we can" involves wearing masks.  It doesn't make sense to say we should do our best and then suggest we do stuff that directly conflicts that.  It's like saying we should get drunk and then drive as safely as possible.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 02:07 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: No it's not.  At risk should wear masks and limit their contact the best they can.  For nursing homes they should take all necessary precautions.  That's a super simple list, but you get the idea.

The mask and face coverings recommended by the CDC keep your germs to yourself. They do not protect the wearer from getting sick. You work at a hospital and don’t understand that after 9 months?! You don’t know why some people wear procedure masks and others wear N95 masks? At a hospital? Really?

Suggestion those at increased risk of death should wear masks to prevent them from getting infected because you don’t wear a mask is completely asinine unless those masks are N95 masks. And we would need enough of those for 60% of the population. We don’t have enough.

You don’t even know the basics.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 12:47 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: It may not be popular, but my opinion is 1+1=3. Just my opinion. Don’t have any evidence to back it up. Don’t hammer me on it. I’m just being honest.

Opinions aren’t created equal. There are informed opinions. There are uninformed opinions.


You already question the numbers, even suggesting hospitals are committing insurance fraud. Do the numbers even matter?


With all due respect, this pandemic is due to a novel virus which means every human is susceptible or at risk of becoming infected. Unless they have already been infected and developed immunity. Immunity which has yet to be determined if it is transient or permanent.

Then there is the population at increased risk for death

You’re wrong. Not an opinion. It’s a fact.


As Matt has already pointed out, this isn’t how it is calculated. Again, there are informed opinions and then there are uninformed opinions and the two aren’t equal.


How did those nursing homes get infected if they’re isolated from the general population?
 

Again, not even how this is calculated. If this was Thanksgiving, you would be sent back to the kids table.


I put the statistic in the original Covid thread which has been archived, but something like 60% of the nation across all age groups has at least one comorbidity placing them at increased risks of death due to infection from Covid 19 to include kids and young adults. I’m not looking it up, but that’s where you can find it to check my memory.


Not a single one of your calculations are correct. Now you have proven you have an informed opinion based upon misinformation. If your opinion is based upon misinformation then it is invalid.


Again, it’s a novel virus that no one has immunity to and 60% of the nation has at least one comorbidity placing them at increased risk of death due to Covid 19. These are facts, not opinion.


That’s known cases. What about the unknown cases due to a lack of testing? What about the CDC changing the testing protocol as recently as this month to further reduce testing for political purposes?


Everyone of your numbers is wrong. Every. Single. One.  

It would be like me giving one of your kids liver or kidney failure because I calculated the dose of their medicine incorrectly.

I respect your right to voice your opinion. But, let’s not confuse that with respect for the actual opinion based upon misinformation and faulty calculations giving erroneous results which ultimately = BS.

And you can’t make public health decisions based upon BS when “death is on the line.”

I appreciate your response and read the whole thing.  I don't have time to go point by point.

One thing I will comment on is the nursing home deaths.  You asked how those nursing homes got infected if they were isolated?  You are apparently not familiar with our awesome Governor Cuomo, plus multiple other states who FORCED nursing homes to bring back Covid positive patients.  And at least in NY, Trump brought a Naval ship in and constructed extra beds when we thought the Hospitals were going to get overwhelmed and instead of using those resources for the infected nursing home patients that were infected, Cuomo made the nursing homes take back the infected patients.  Cuomo even praised Trump early on for everything he did for NY.

Lets assume all my numbers are wrong.

Can we at least agree there are approx 325,000,000 people in the US, there are as of today 6.61M cases and 197,00 deaths over a 7 month period?

And can we agree that 40+% of all Covid deaths are from nursing homes?

And can we also agree the high risk population is Elderly, Elderly with comorbitities and anyone with comorbitities?

If we can agree on those readily available facts, how can you look at those numbers and think we should be locked down (causing huge problems, maybe worse than Covid itself), destroying our economy, canceling sports for kids, destroying peoples livelihoods and keeping kids out of school?

I'm sorry, that is completely irrational to me.  Open fully, wear a mask if it makes you feel better and get on with life.  Not directed at you personally.


EDIT****  I will add this, if 60% of all people have comorbitities and are truly at risk, then why is such a small amount of people effected out of the 6.61M?  Once you subtract elderly and elderly with comorbitities I believe you at far less than 100,000.  Again, showing the risk is minimal, especially when compared to the entire population of 325,000,000.

[Belsnickel]

(09-16-2020, 02:26 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: EDIT****  I will add this, if 60% of all people have comorbitities and are truly at risk, then why is such a small amount of people effected out of the 6.61M?  Once you subtract elderly and elderly with comorbitities I believe you at far less than 100,000.  Again, showing the risk is minimal.

This is one of those things about it being a new virus that makes it so uncertain. One theory that some epidemiologists have put forth is that probably close to half of the population has some degree of immunity that lessens the impact. The common cold is not one virus, but many that produce similar symptoms. That's why there will never be a cure for it. Anyway, a handful of the viruses that produce the disease we know as the common cold are in the coronavirus family. Because of this, if you have had one of those viruses then your immune system can more easily identify the SARS-CoV-2 virus which leads to a lower impact illness or an asymptomatic one.

We also have to stop only looking at the deaths. People, young and healthy people, are having serious damage done to their bodies as a result of this disease. It is impacting their cardiovascular and respiratory systems in ways that may be permanent and irreparable.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 02:26 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I appreciate your response and read the whole thing.  I don't have time to go point by point.

One thing I will comment on is the nursing home deaths.  You asked how those nursing homes got infected if they were isolated?  You are apparently not familiar with our awesome Governor Cuomo, plus multiple other states who FORCED nursing homes to bring back Covid positive patients.  And at least in NY, Trump brought a Naval ship in and constructed extra beds when we thought the Hospitals were going to get overwhelmed and instead of using those resources for the infected nursing home patients that were infected, Cuomo made the nursing homes take back the infected patients.  Cuomo even praised Trump early on for everything he did for NY.

Lets assume all my numbers are wrong.

Can we at least agree there are approx 325,000,000 people in the US, there are as of today 6.61M cases and 197,00 deaths over a 7 month period?

And can we agree that 40+% of all Covid deaths are from nursing homes?

And can we also agree the high risk population is Elderly, Elderly with comorbitities and anyone with comorbitities?

If we can agree on those readily available facts, how can you look at those numbers and think we should be locked down (causing huge problems, maybe worse than Covid itself), destroying our economy, canceling sports for kids, destroying peoples livelihoods and keeping kids out of school?

I'm sorry, that is completely irrational to me.  Open fully, wear a mask if it makes you feel better and get on with life.  Not directed at you personally.


EDIT****  I will add this, if 60% of all people have comorbitities and are truly at risk, then why is such a small amount of people effected out of the 6.61M?  Once you subtract elderly and elderly with comorbitities I believe you at far less than 100,000.  Again, showing the risk is minimal, especially when compared to the entire population of 325,000,000.

I will address specific points later.

Meanwhile, tell me what Covid 19 precautions your hospital has implemented to protect their patients and staff from Covid 19 then explain why they’re wrong and you’re right. “It’s just my opinion” is not an explanation.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 02:35 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: I will address specific points later.

Meanwhile, tell me what Covid 19 precautions your hospital has implemented to protect their patients and staff from Covid 19 then explain why they’re wrong and you’re right. “It’s just my opinion” is not an explanation.

Hey, Please re-read my post because I made a couple minor edits and at the end it was not directed at you personally and I typed that, but for some reason only the 2 "<<" showed up.

Oh, that is easy.  We are a healthcare facility.  We wear masks, wash our hands, sanitize, etc.  Being a Hospital we have a lot of sick and elderly that come through our doors, obviously, lol.  That would fall under "protect the at risk population".  I'm talking about schools, sports, playgrounds, businesses, theaters, entertainment, etc.

If you are an at risk person you probably want to wear a mask, and stay away from as many people as you can.  Shutting down our entire Country and economy for 200,000 deaths out of 325M people over 7 months; no freakin' way!  Far much more harm than Covid itself.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 02:47 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Hey, Please re-read my post because I made a couple minor edits and at the end it was not directed at you personally and I typed that, but for some reason only the 2 "<<" showed up.

Oh, that is easy.  We are a healthcare facility.  We wear masks, wash our hands, sanitize, etc.  Being a Hospital we have a lot of sick and elderly that come through our doors, obviously, lol.  That would fall under "protect the at risk population".  I'm talking about schools, sports, playgrounds, businesses, theaters, entertainment, etc.

What kind of mask do you wear and why do you wear them?

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 02:50 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: What kind of mask do you wear and why do you wear them?

I get it, i'm going to say "to prevent the spread of Covid" and you are going to say "gotcha"!     The masks I have to wear (I don't go into the actual OR rooms while patients are there) are just the standard white/blue cloth type masks you see everywhere.  We don't wear them in our office, only out in the open Hospital areas.

But what I meant about "no masks" was a mask mandate.  If someone feels, as you do, that masks are a good thing, then by all means wear a mask everywhere and social distance.  So I still believe open fully, no masks (unless you want to) and get back to normal life.

[Belsnickel]

(09-16-2020, 03:19 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: But what I meant about "no masks" was a mask mandate.  If someone feels, as you do, that masks are a good thing, then by all means wear a mask everywhere and social distance.  So I still believe open fully, no masks (unless you want to) and get back to normal life.

This goes back to way in which these masks work, though. If the cloth masks or the standard procedure masks we all know so well were intended to protect the wearer from others, then what you say makes sense. However, those masks are for preventing the wearer from spreading their droplets to other people. Not wearing a masks puts others at risk more than it puts the wearer at risk which is why mandates are important.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 01:09 PM)PhilHos Wrote: While his numbers may be wrong, I don't think they are going to change his opinion. 

My response to him would be to point out that the numbers that we do have now are where they are largely due to masking up and social distancing. Sure, not everyone is doing their part but most are. If we were somehow to go back the last few months and have no one wear a mask nor social distance, the numbers are going to be worse than what they are now, most likely far worse. 

The mortality rate may or may not change dramatically, but the total number of people infected will surely rise as well as the total number of people who died. 3% of 6 million may "only" be 200k, but 3% of 300 million is 9 million and while I think 200k is an unacceptable number, I would think that even Mickeypoo would find 9 million dead to certainly be too many.

Of course I would agree that 9M is too many, but we are at 200K and no one can prove with any type of hard evidence that continued lock downs will result in a drastic decrease of cases or deaths.  I should also state, because I didn't think to, that I was for the lock downs in the beginning and think they were a good idea.  At this point I think we need to be fully open.  I also consider the ancillary harm from the lock downs vs Covid itself.

[*bfine32*]

(09-16-2020, 11:55 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Ok, so, let's pause for a moment and look at your numbers.

First, mortality rate is based off of the number infected, not the entire population. So 200k/6.61M is 3% mortality rate overall. I'm not sure why people have been continually trying to do that math differently, but it's getting old.

Then, your last figure of the infected population is just wrong. 6.61M/325M is 2% of the population, not 0.018%.

What if we don't know the true number infected? Wouldn't it be more conclusive to use a known number such as total population?

Not an attempt to mitigate the deaths just something that stuck my QA nerve.