Coronavirus Information...who do you trust?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 04:11 PM)bfine32 Wrote: What if we don't know the true number infected? Wouldn't it be more conclusive to use a known number such as total population?

Not an attempt to mitigate the deaths just something that stuck my QA nerve.

Let’s look at the mortality of lung cancer caused by decades of smoking. If the mortality is based upon the total population it would include non-smokers who get lung cancer less often than smokers. That would artificially decrease the mortality rate in smokers.

Or how about prostate cancer. If we used total population to determine the mortality rate of prostate cancer it would include women who do t even have a prostate.

Also, do we really know the true population? Someone do a head count?

[*Nately120*]

(09-16-2020, 07:54 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Let’s look at the mortality of lung cancer caused by decades of smoking. If the mortality is based upon the total population it would include non-smokers who get lung cancer less often than smokers. That would artificially decrease the mortality rate in smokers.

Or how about prostate cancer. If we used total population to determine the mortality rate of prostate cancer it would include women who do t even have a prostate.

Also, do we really know the true population?  Someone do a head count?

Ask him to do a two way t test with p-hat.

[BmorePat87]

(09-16-2020, 02:47 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Shutting down our entire Country and economy for 200,000 deaths out of 325M people over 7 months; no freakin' way!  Far much more harm than Covid itself.

If we didn't "shut down" it would have been well above that number. Obviously more people interacting face to face without protections means far more cases, but it also means a great burden on our healthcare system that wouldn't be able to sustain. You also have the long term health consequences of people who survived it. 

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 08:16 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: If we didn't "shut down" it would have been well above that number. Obviously more people interacting face to face without protections means far more cases, but it also means a great burden on our healthcare system that wouldn't be able to sustain. You also have the long term health consequences of people who survived it. 

I have posted in other posts (that sounds weird, lol) that I agree with the lock down in the beginning, but as of a month or 2 ago we should have been fully open.  My opinion of course and a very unpopular one.  

[BmorePat87]

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-abc-news-town-hall-fact-checking-presidents/story?id=73030890&fbclid=IwAR2X0mSUsJ7gLuaxK-HCOIOqzhXg0ubgNIDvyyipqcafXDSaJovLrpfxlzY

Quote:COVID-19 is unlikely to go away on its own, despite Trump's insistence
TRUMP'S CLAIM: COVID-19 is "probably going to go away now a lot faster because of the vaccine. It would go away without the vaccine, George, but it's going to go away a lot faster with the vaccine," Trump said. Stephanopoulos asked, "It will go away without the vaccine?" To which Trump said, "Sure, over a period of time. Sure, with time it goes away."

FACT CHECK: This statement is misleading.

The virus is unlikely to go away definitively even with a vaccine. Similar to what has happened with past pandemic influenza viruses and the more mild human coronaviruses that cause "colds," experts believe that as the pandemic wanes, it may synchronize to a seasonal pattern with diminished severity over time due to mutations and reinfection.

Even so, its trajectory is difficult to predict as the virus is still being studied.

Quote:Trump is wrong to suggest there is no consensus on wearing masks
TRUMP'S CLAIM: "People don't want to wear masks. There are a lot of people [who] think the masks are not good."

FACT CHECK: This view does not reflect the scientific consensus.

The recommendation to wear a mask is now almost unanimous among health experts, including some of the president's own appointees, who have all been very vocal in encouraging the American people to wear masks to curtail the spread of the disease.

Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization have issued statements urging people to wear masks in public settings.

"There are people that don't think masks are good," Trump said, prompting Stephanopoulos to ask, "Who are those people?"

"Waiters," Trump said. "They come over and they serve you, and they have a mask. They're playing with the mask, so the mask is over and they're touching it, and then they're touching the plate. That can't be good."

But researchers from Stanford University found the opposite.

"Wearing a mask reminds people to continue to be cautious," they said. "With a mask on, you actually touch your face less."

Quote:Trump claims he didn't 'downplay' COVID-19 -- despite admitting to having done just that
TRUMP'S CLAIM: "I didn't downplay it. I, actually, in many ways, I up-played it, in terms of action. My action was very strong."

FACT CHECK: During the town hall, Trump said he "didn't downplay" the virus -- when in fact, he has admitted to just that.

"I wanted to always play it down," Trump said in a March 19 interview with veteran journalist Bob Woodward, according to CNN, which obtained an audio recording of the interview, and The Washington Post. "I still like playing it down, because I don't want to create a panic."

When the audio was first played last week, a reporter asked if he had misled the public in order to reduce panic.

"I think if you said, 'in order to reduce panic,' perhaps that's so," Trump replied. "I'm a cheerleader for this country.'

After Trump said Tuesday night he "didn't downplay it," Stephanopoulos pressed him: "Did you not admit to it yourself saying that you--?"

"Yeah, because what I did was, with China, I put a ban on," Trump said, referring to limitations he put on travel from China starting on Feb. 2. "With Europe, I put a ban on, and we would have lost thousands of more people had I not put the ban on," he added; the ban on certain travel from Europe began March 13.

"So that was called 'action,' not with the mouth but in actual fact," Trump said.

[BmorePat87]

(09-16-2020, 08:19 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I have posted in other posts (that sounds weird, lol) that I agree with the lock down in the beginning, but as of a month or 2 ago we should have been fully open.  My opinion of course and a very unpopular one.  

Florida believed this too. After June, they had 3500 deaths and numbers seemed to be leveled out. They opened back up and now they're sitting at 13,000 deaths. 3000 or so in July. Roughly 4000 in August. On pace for nearly 5000 in September. 

New York was criticized for their high death toll, primarily coming immediately at the start of the pandemic when we knew far less and did not have nearly as many supplies as we needed. Since then, they've leveled off to less than 10 a day.

Florida, despite seeing how to manage this from New York, is on pace to have thousands of more deaths by the end of the year. 

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 08:29 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Florida believed this too. After June, they had 3500 deaths and numbers seemed to be leveled out. They opened back up and now they're sitting at 13,000 deaths. 3000 or so in July. Roughly 4000 in August. On pace for nearly 5000 in September. 

New York was criticized for their high death toll, primarily coming immediately at the start of the pandemic when we knew far less and did not have nearly as many supplies as we needed. Since then, they've leveled off to less than 10 a day.

Florida, despite seeing how to manage this from New York, is on pace to have thousands of more deaths by the end of the year. 

Florida has a larger population (21.48M) vs NY (19.45M).  NY has more than 2x's the deaths (32,662) as Florida (12,938).  Florida not locked down vs NY locked down.

How are you getting that Florida is on pace to have thousands more deaths than NY by the end of the year?  NY has 19,724 more deaths as of today.

Even if they even out by the end of the year, Florida will be ahead from an economic standpoint plus less ancillary harms from lock downs.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 04:15 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Of course, but then again I am not advocating for high risk or sick individuals to go to crowded areas, not social distance and not wear masks.

How do asymptomatic people know they’re sick and to wear a mask, social distance, not go to crowded areas?

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 10:17 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: How do asymptomatic people know they’re sick and to wear a mask, social distance, not go to crowded areas?

I get it.  We disagree with the lock downs.  

I say open the Country.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 04:34 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I'm in IT bro.  I don't care how a mask works.  They give me a mask and tell me I have to wear it when out and about.  I do that.  I put on a mask where required.  Other than that I forget Covid is even a thing.  We never stopped hanging out with our friends and their families.  Our kids never stopped hanging out with their friends.  Our whole little Village is the same way.  Covid, thankfully, has effected my family and my friends' families very little.

I stated my view and said I know it's unpopular.  Not sure what else to say.  Maybe we can revisit this a year from now when we will have a better understanding of the numbers and the virus.

It’s not unpopular. It’s uneducated. It’s impossible for you to have an informed opinion about whether we do or don’t need to wear mask if you don’t even know how they work.

Do you follow the recommendations of people who don’t know what they’re talking about?

[BmorePat87]

(09-16-2020, 10:14 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Florida has a larger population (21.48M) vs NY (19.45M).  NY has more than 2x's the deaths (32,662) as Florida (12,938).  Florida not locked down vs NY locked down.

How are you getting that Florida is on pace to have thousands more deaths than NY by the end of the year?  NY has 19,724 more deaths as of today.

Even if they even out by the end of the year, Florida will be ahead from an economic standpoint plus less ancillary harms from lock downs.

I don't mean to sound rude, but did you read anything I wrote?

Florida's death count has gone from 3000 a month to 4000 a month to now on pace to 5000 a month. If that trend continues, they'll be at nearly 36,000 by the end of the year. 
 
New York had 167 deaths last month. They're on pace for 150 this month. That means they're on pace to have about 525 more deaths by the end of the year. Florida had more deaths than that last week... so Florida has as many people dying each week as New York will have in the next 15 weeks combined. 

I also noted that the vast majority of those NY deaths came at the start when we didn't have as much information about dealing with it and lacked critical supplies. 

Florida does not have that excuse. They knew what methods can be used and have the supplies. They're actively choosing to let thousands of citizens die each month. Being open right now is killing thousands of people who do not need to die. Florida will have more deaths than any other state by the end of the year if they do not change course. 

Edit: just checked Texas. They're at 14.5k with over 150 deaths a day last month. They're on pace to have the 2nd most deaths by the end of the year.

California is having issues too. 3700 deaths last month, but they're declining this month (on pace for 3000). They also have the population of those other two states combined, so per capita they're nearly half Texas and Florida.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 06:02 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Why does there have to be a cutoff?  I see 200K deaths (almost all elderly and many with comorbitities) after 7 months vs crashing our economy and all kinds of ancillary harms from the extended lock downs.  Pretty sure we would notice a spike of hundreds of thousands or millions.

This might be a Fox News talking point, but it is absolutely true.  If 80 year old Pelosi (see: high risk group) is comfortable enough to go to and into a salon and walk around with no mask, then i'm going to question how deadly this virus really is; especially after her continual rhetoric about wearing masks.  Either she has a death wish based on her own rhetoric or Covid is not as deadly as it is getting played up to be.  I'm going with the latter. 

What death toll is the cutoff for you Fred?  1?  1000?  10,000?  Would you crash the economy and lock everyone down for 1000 elderly high risk people? And I keep saying it like a broken record, that the ancillary harms from the lock downs may come close to or outweigh the damage from Covid itself when all is said and done.

What ancillary harm is worse or more permanent than death?

I’m gonna explain this again for the nth time; the mask Nancy Pelosi wasn’t wearing in the salon isn’t to protect her from getting sick, it’s to protect the staff from Nancy Pelosi getting them sick if she is infected and doesn’t know it.

If you don’t understand how mask decrease the spread of disease you aren’t qualified to give mask recommendations. That’s why at your hospital you wear the type of mask you’re told to wear when you’re told to wear it because you’re not qualified to tell others they don’t need to wear a mask.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 10:21 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I get it.  We disagree with the lock downs.  

I say open the Country.

Dude, you don’t even understand masks (or percentages). I’m afraid lock downs are a bridge too far for you.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 10:31 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: It’s not unpopular. It’s uneducated. It’s impossible for you to have an informed opinion about whether we do or don’t need to wear mask if you don’t even know how they work.

Do you follow the recommendations of people who don’t know what they’re talking about?

All i'm saying is masks should be optional.  If a business wants to require them for entry fine.  If employers want to mandate them fine.  Let the country open up, try to social distance if possible and wear a mask if required by the business/employer.

The ancillary harm of the lock downs is quite large and depending how long certain states stay locked down could potentially do more damage than Covid itself.

How about a suicide by a restaurant owner who lost everything because a state wants to stay locked down?  And how does that death effect the persons entire family and how does that negatively impact other people and family members.  How about all the employees who can't work there and over the years the number of people that may have worked there and the income it would have generated for their families.  The restaurant could have been passed down through the family providing income and pride and employment for possibly decades.

How about all the kids in abusive homes under normal circumstances.  Now they are stuck home possibly with an abusive parent/s who is even more pissed off and frustrated because they lost their job. 

How about the crushing of our economy and the 10's and 10's of millions of people it will effect for years or decades to come.  Potentially life savings gone, businesses ruined, lives ruined, psychological damage, kids abused, education lost, kids sports gone which are sometimes life savers for kids.

At what point do you say enough!  Open up and work through Covid without lock downs.  Millions of people are not dying and it does not appear anything remotely close to that is going to happen.  

I don't care how uneducated, dumb, stupid, etc, etc you think my opinion is or I am.  For all the smart people on here, I have yet to see ONE conversation about the glaring issue of the ancillary harms vs Covid itself.

200K deaths over 7 months of mostly elderly and elderly with comorbitities and 40%+ of that number is from nursing home deaths and a huge % of that 40+% is from just 2 states, NY and NJ!

Sorry, no way in hell you convince me we should be locked down.  We need to open it all back up!

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 10:52 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: What ancillary harm is worse or more permanent than death?

I’m gonna explain this again for the nth time; the mask Nancy Pelosi wasn’t wearing in the salon isn’t to protect her from getting sick, it’s to protect the staff from Nancy Pelosi getting them sick if she is infected and doesn’t know it.

If you don’t understand how mask decrease the spread of disease you aren’t qualified to give mask recommendations. That’s why at your hospital you wear the type of mask you’re told to wear when you’re told to wear it because you’re not qualified to tell others they don’t need to wear a mask.

Are you serious?  So you think 200K deaths over 7 months is worse than untold, long term damage to our Country, the  economy and 10's of millions of families?  How about suicides (permanent death) from the lock downs and ruined businesses?   Child abuse?  Interesting.

So Nancy doesn't care if she spreads Covid?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 10:14 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Florida has a larger population (21.48M) vs NY (19.45M).  NY has more than 2x's the deaths (32,662) as Florida (12,938).  Florida not locked down vs NY locked down.

How are you getting that Florida is on pace to have thousands more deaths than NY by the end of the year?  NY has 19,724 more deaths as of today.

Even if they even out by the end of the year, Florida will be ahead from an economic standpoint plus less ancillary harms from lock downs.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

29,411 of of NY state’s Covid deaths come from 8 counties due to population density.

The other 54 counties account for the remaining 3,745 deaths.

I’ll do the percentages for you because we both know you can’t.

88% of NY’s Covid deaths come from 13% of NY’s counties. While remaining 12% of NY’s deaths come from 87% NY’s counties.

Without the most densely populated city in the nation Florida’s deaths exceeds NY’s almost 4:1.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(09-16-2020, 11:15 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: All i'm saying is masks should be optional.  If a business wants to require them for entry fine.  If employers want to mandate them fine.  Let the country open up, try to social distance if possible and where a mask if required by the business/employer.

Show me where I called for a single mask mandate. You can’t because I didn’t. I’d settle for a President who doesn’t lie about the need for wearing them so he could have avoided declaring a state of emergency after sitting with his thumb up his ass for 2.5 months.

Quote:The ancillary harm of the lock downs is quite large and depending how long certain states stay locked down could potentially due more damage than Covid itself.

Name these mysteriously nonspecific ancillary harms. And remember, it’s 200K dead and climbing in 6 months and we’re probably not even halfway to a vaccine.

Quote:How about a suicide by a restaurant owner who lost everything because a state wants to stay locked down?  And how does that death effect the persons entire family and how does that negatively impact other people and family members.  How about all the employees who can't work there and over the years the number of people that may have worked there and the income it would have generated for their families.  The restaurant could have been passed down through the family providing income and pride and employment for possibly decades.

Now multiple the suffering for that one person x 200K Covid deaths and climbing.

You keep claiming there isn’t any evidence to support lock downs, so I’d like to see your data on lockdown related suicides and child abuse.

Quote:How about all the kids in abusive homes under normal circumstances.  Now they are stuck home possibly with an abusive parent/s who is even more pissed off and frustrated because they lost their job. 

Show me the data. I grew up in an abusive home. As much as it sucked, I’d prefer it to death. Because the beatings eventually stopped. Death is permanent.

Quote:How about the crushing of our economy and the 10's and 10's of millions of people it will effect for years or decades to come.  Potentially life savings gone, businesses ruined, lives ruined, psychological damage, kids abused, education lost, kids sports gone which are sometimes life savers for kids.

The economy recovered after the pandemic in 1918.

All that’s important. Which is why we need we need strategies to avoid lock downs. Not lies and political rallies which helped spread the disease leading to the lockdowns.

Quote:At what point do you say enough!  Open up and work through Covid without lock downs.  Millions of people are not dying and it does not appear anything remotely close to that is going to happen.  

After your tutorial on the mortality rate of 3% producing 9M deaths you still don’t get it.

Quote:I don't care how stupid, uneducated, dumb, stupid, etc, etc you think my opinion is.  For all the smart people on here, I have yet to see ONE conversation about the glaring issue of the ancillary harms vs Covid itself.

Let’s talk about them. Because so far all you’ve offered is speculation and fear mongering and little to no actual facts. Careful, you don’t want to start a panic. So maybe you should just lie to us about how the ancillary harms are a Democrat hoax. You know, for our own good.

Quote:200K deaths over 7 months of mostly elderly and elderly with comorbitities and 40%+ of that number is from nursing home deaths and a huge % of that 40+% is from just 2 states, NY and NJ!

Remember back in March when Trump said keeping Covid deaths under 100K would be a good job? I do. Well, all I got to say is, “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!”

Quote:Sorry, no way in hell you convince me we should be locked down.  We need to open it all back up!

Hell, I can’t educate you on masks. I’m not a miracle worker.

[Belsnickel]

(09-16-2020, 04:47 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I'm not being a smart ass.  Please help me understand how .02 is 2.0%.

I need to find forums with dumber people so I can feel more capable.   

Don't worry. Some of these folks will make you feel like Einstein.

In all seriousness, don't feel bad. We have lots of conversations with these sorts of things where something that is second nature to one person is a blind spot for another. The important thing to keep in mind is that we need to work on being kind to others in those instances rather than stoking flames, which is what usually happens.

(09-16-2020, 05:16 PM)PhilHos Wrote: 2% written in decimal format is 0.02

100% is 1.0
50% is 0.5
10% is 0.1
.02% is 0.0002

If you want to find what 25% of something is you would multiply it by 0.25.

Thanks for answering this one, Phil. I tend to not be on my computer at home as much as possible, so I just saw this.

(09-16-2020, 08:03 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Ask him to do a two way t test with p-hat.

With skewed data.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 10:54 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Dude, you don’t even understand masks (or percentages). I’m afraid lock downs are a bridge too far for you.

Sometimes it's the simple minded that have the easiest time seeing the forest through the trees.

As it stands right now, with all the current numbers, the likelihood of a healthy individual dying from Covid in the US is around .01% and possibly much less.  

The odds of an infected, healthy individual dying from Covid in the US is .7% and that is being extremely generous with the numbers.  I used 25% of deaths as healthy individuals.  The real number is probably closer to .3% - .5%.

But ya, let's keep it all locked down.  You can say i'm uneducated and too stupid to discuss lock downs, but you cannot change those numbers and you cannot change the harm being done by the lock downs.  KISS applies here.

[Mickeypoo]

(09-16-2020, 11:30 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

29,411 of of NY state’s Covid deaths come from 8 counties due to population density.

The other 54 counties account for the remaining 3,745 deaths.

I’ll do the percentages for you because we both know you can’t.

88% of NY’s Covid deaths come from 13% of NY’s counties. While remaining 12% of NY’s deaths come from 87% NY’s counties.

Without the most densely populated city in the nation Florida’s deaths exceeds NY’s almost 4:1.

Your numbers don't change the facts.  NY 32,662 deaths and FL 12,938 deaths.  I'm pretty sure the dead people don't care what geographical location they died in.


Not true, I can do percentages now!     Some nice person on this forum edumacated my dumb ass.