Does Bernie Know Dems Need A Miracle?

[Belsnickel]

(03-09-2020, 03:16 PM)Dill Wrote: Suppose your guesstimate is right and undocumented immigrants cost 137B per year.

What would be the "savings" to taxpayers if they were deported?
Or if they were simply cut off from all services, like public schools and emergency room treatment and left dangling?

Do you think state and federal government would just pocket your 137B for a net saving to taxpayers--extra money to finally start building the wall?

Or might other costs appear to negate those "savings"?

Well, not costs necessarily, but there an approximately $8 trillion loss to our GDP over 14 years were undocumented immigrants deported. That's about $571.4 billion per year during the time.

Source: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/gdp

[Belsnickel]

The answer about immigrants costing us money is an extremely nuanced one that is difficult to fully realize. For instance:

Quote:Age at arrival is an important determining fiscal factor as well, because of its relation to the three factors identified above. Immigrants arriving while of working age—who pay taxes almost immediately and for whom per capital social expenditures are the lowest—are, on average, net positive contributors. In The New Americans’ fiscal estimates for the 1990s, a 21-year-old with a high school diploma was found to have a net present value of $126,000. This value gradually declines with age at arrival; as the projected number of years remaining in the workforce becomes smaller; the figure turned negative for those arriving after their mid-thirties. For immigrants with lower levels of education, the estimated net present value was much smaller initially and turned negative at an earlier age (National Research Council, 1997, pp. 328-330). Immigrants arriving after age 21 also do not themselves add to costs of public education in the receiving country (although, if they have them, their children would). In cases where immigrants are educated in the origin country, the receiving country benefits from the investment without paying for it, creating a distortion in the expenditure estimates.

https://www.nap.edu/read/23550/chapter/12#327

Earlier on in that study it discusses how first-gen immigrants may, in general, be a net drain on fiscal resources but their children provide a net boost which is, on average, higher than native-born citizens.

Anyway, as per usual, this discussion has been done with only a small percentage of the information and with very little critical thinking on the overall impacts.

[Dill]

(03-09-2020, 03:54 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Well, not costs necessarily, but there an approximately $8 trillion loss to our GDP over 14 years were undocumented immigrants deported. That's about $571.4 billion per year during the time.

Source: https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/gdp

Yes. Last week someone on Fareed Zarakia was explaining the hit our annual growth rate will take if we continue to slow immigration as Trump has. I believe he was refering to this UPenn/Wharton study:
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2017/8/8/the-raise-act-effect-on-economic-growth-and-jobs

LOL and of course, someone in the Center for Immigration Studies has already found that while all immigrant labor adds about 1.7 trillion to the economy (writing back in 2013),  American workers who compete with them experience a (guesstimated) 2% loss in wages, as much as 402 million a year, so they realize little benefit from the expanded GDP.  https://cis.org/Report/Immigration-and-American-Worker

One of David Roodman's blogs from the same year suggests the workers who "compete" with illegals are mostly other migrants.
https://davidroodman.com/blog/2014/09/03/the-domestic-economic-impacts-of-immigration/

So that set me to wondering what the larger effect of anti-immigration policies might be, fueled as they so often are by fragmented or comparmentalized data that ignore the national or global context.  How much would the US "save" if it kicked out 10 million illegal consumers? Or even a quarter of that?

A huge labor market would open for native-born Americans capable of picking a ton+ of lettuce a day.  Day labor in many cities would drop.

I'm not an economist. Just wondering. People present that "immigrants cost our economy so much!" argument as if such costs were clear and easily measured against the cost of welfare and healthcare and the like. I have a strong suspicion that Americans as a group do greatly benefit from the low pay undocumented workers get for their labor, but squawk at the other costs that attend such low pay, when immigrants can't pay for illness or feed their families without help.  Ok if our social services socialize the cost of low wages for Americans (thereby increasing profitability of private enterprise), but not for foreigners.

[NATI BENGALS]

(03-09-2020, 10:08 PM)Dill Wrote: Yes. Last week someone on Fareed Zarakia was explaining the hit our annual growth rate will take if we continue to slow immigration as Trump has. I believe he was refering to this UPenn/Wharton study:
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2017/8/8/the-raise-act-effect-on-economic-growth-and-jobs

LOL and of course, someone in the Center for Immigration Studies has already found that while all immigrant labor adds about 1.7 trillion to the economy (writing back in 2013),  American workers who compete with them experience a (guesstimated) 2% loss in wages, as much as 402 million a year, so they realize little benefit from the expanded GDP.  https://cis.org/Report/Immigration-and-American-Worker

One of David Roodman's blogs from the same year suggests the workers who "compete" with illegals are mostly other migrants.
https://davidroodman.com/blog/2014/09/03/the-domestic-economic-impacts-of-immigration/

So that set me to wondering what the larger effect of anti-immigration policies might be, fueled as they so often are by fragmented or comparmentalized data that ignore the national or global context.  How much would the US "save" if it kicked out 10 million illegal consumers? Or even a quarter of that?

A huge labor market would open for native-born Americans capable of picking a ton+ of lettuce a day.  Day labor in many cities would drop.

I'm not an economist. Just wondering. People present that "immigrants cost our economy so much!" argument as if such costs were clear and easily measured against the cost of welfare and healthcare and the like. I have a strong suspicion that Americans as a group do greatly benefit from the low pay undocumented workers get for their labor, but squawk at the other costs that attend such low pay, when immigrants can't pay for illness or feed their families without help.  Ok if our social services socialize the cost of low wages for Americans (thereby increasing profitability of private enterprise), but not for foreigners.

Immigrants doing jobs Americans don't want to do and motivated smart immigrants who come from less privilege than the average American kid are worth a lot to the economy imo.

[Dill]

(03-04-2020, 04:05 PM)hollodero Wrote: Don't get your hopes up. Once an electorate has tasted full-blown populism, it does not just so return to some more pragmatic sanity. These tickets would get called a RINO ticket by a huge portion, and hence such a ticket probably won't come to pass or fail so miserably there will no be repeat. I know little, but that one I know. Trumpism will be a big political factor for decades.

Was thinking of your post when I read this letter-to-the-editor in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review today.

This is why all the flim flam and anger won't end with Trump.

https://triblive.com/opinion/letter-to-the-editor-wheres-evidence-on-russian-interference/

Russian interference?
I am a bit skeptical about all of the news of Russian interference in this year’s presidential election. I hear and read about these allegations coming from sources that made these same claims about President Trump’s election in 2016. Do not tell me to believe these accusations without showing unbridled evidence to support the accusation.

I know individuals who were old-school intelligence operatives with the CIA, and many of them believe the agency, along with the NSA and Homeland Security, have become and are an arm of the Democratic Party. The consensus in my discussions with them is that they are used for propaganda purposes by certain Democratic politicians in order to confuse people into believing a lie in order to con them into voting Democrat. We discussed when this was set up, and the conclusion was that when the agency began the procedure of contracting with private concerns, the quality of intelligence decreased and became unreliable at best.

The professionalism the agencies used to have is no longer there. The news media gobble up this propaganda as a starving wolf would devour a road-kill carcass.

Show me the evidence. An accusation without evidence is worthless. If people are foolish enough to believe this story again, then shame on them. The Mueller investigation came up practically empty, and this is more of the same. The deep-state operatives cannot come up with anything new. It is the age-old adage of tell a lie often enough, and the people will eventually believe it.

XXXX X. XXXXXX
North Huntingdon

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(02-27-2020, 03:17 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: LOL I've listed many ways we could save money and cut down on illegals coming here, that's not just a wall thing. Shoot just the amount of money we spend on illegals annually can almost fully fund all US HS students for four years of college. but of course, none of you want to believe that cause that's not what your told.

If illegal immigrants couldn’t get jobs here then Guatemala would have an illegal immigration problem instead of us. The majority of small business owners who hire illegal immigrants illegally are Republicans who voted for Trump so he could build a wall to stop the problem they created. If they would stop hiring them illegally they would stop coming illegally. And for all the rhetoric I read or hear about punishment for those breaking the law it is almost never directed at those doing the illegal hiring. I bet if we deported those illegally hiring illegal immigrants it would do more to curtail illegal immigration than building a wall.

[*Nately120*]

(03-11-2020, 04:53 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: If illegal immigrants couldn’t get jobs here then Guatemala would have an illegal immigration problem instead of us. The majority of small business owners who hire illegal immigrants illegally are Republicans who voted for Trump so he could build a wall to stop the problem they created. If they would stop hiring them illegally they would stop coming illegally. And for all the rhetoric I read or hear about punishment for those breaking the law it is almost never directed at those doing the illegal hiring. I bet if we deported those illegally hiring illegal immigrants it would do more to curtail illegal immigration than building a wall.

A candidate should run on the promise to put the smug neo-cons who hire illegals in jail and people could chant "Lock Trump up!  Lock Trump up!"

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

Cashed your stimulus check, yet?

[*Nately120*]

(04-18-2020, 05:27 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Cashed your stimulus check, yet?

It's a win-win for both sides of the political fence.

Neo-cons - You cashed it!  Nyeah nyeah, Trump is your president!
Liber-oos - You cashed it!  Nyeah nyeah, you're a commie!

[BmorePat87]

(04-18-2020, 05:27 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Cashed your stimulus check, yet?

Saving that for a cruise once I get my vaccine. 

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(04-19-2020, 10:33 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Saving that for a cruise once I get my vaccine. 

Well, no stimulus check for me. With the new tax rules we owe over $4000 this year and have to pay $1700 per quarter in estimated taxes during the next year. Thanks, Trump.