Finally getting some legitimate analysis of Kirkpatrick's play in '15

[fredtoast]

There have been a certain group of people around here who have never had any respect for Dre Kirkpatrick.  After last season many of them threw around the fact that ProFootballFocus ranked Dre as one of the absolute worst CBs in the league.  Even after I pointed out that based on PFF logic a CB who played less and messed up more often could be ranked AHEAD of Dre they still insisted that Kirkpatrick was horrible.

I have been waiting for Football Outsiders to post their CB rankings for '15.  They just posted their top 20 and worst 20, and hopefully they will have their complete rankings available within a few days.  Unlike the ridiculous PFF ranking, FO tries to use actual measurable stats to rank CBs.  They required that a CB either start 8 games or be targeted 50 times to qualify for their ranking.  In 2015 seventy-five CBs qualified.  So if a player does not appear in the "worst 20" that means he ranks at least in the top 55.

Average Yards Per Target....Dre ranked 18th in the league (7.0 avg).  Patrick Peterson lead the league with a 4.4 avg, and Adam Jones was 2nd at 4.5.

Success Rate, the percentage of targets where the corner prevented a successful gain (45 percent of needed yards on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third or fourth down)....Dre ranked 32nd.  Patrick Peterson was also #1 in this catagory (70%) and Adam Jones was 5th (65%)

Completion Percentage Allowed....FO actually does not rank CBs by this stats, but from looking at the lists I can calculate the completion percentage allowed for 70 of the 75 qualifying CBs.  Dre's .483 ranks 19 of those 70.  Delvin Breaux ranked #1 with a .373 and Adam Jones was 13th with .455.

Estimated Target Rate, the percentage of possible targets with the corner on the field where the corner was targeted in pass coverage by the opposing offense....Dre ranked 54th.  I really don't put a lot of credibility in this stat because I think it is more about the other players in the secondary and which CB plays the #1 WR most often.  The Steelers William Gay ranked #1 (11.2%) mainly because the Steelers other two CBs were among the worst in the league (Antwon Blake was 73rd in Success Rate and Ross Cockrell was 65th)

Dre also finished in the top 20 in passes defended with 13.


Dre's biggest weakness was poor tackling.  His broken tackle percentage was the 8th worst in the league.  Despite ranking 3rd in tackles by a CB with 65 he had 16 broken tackles.







Just like everyone else here I have seen dre get beaten, but too many people think that no other CBs in the league get beat as often as Dre.  That just is not true.  It is good to finally find some stats to prove this.

[hitchopottimus]

Really good stuff. I'd love to see a statistical breakdown of times guys truly run down a play. My eyeballs say Dre is really good at saving touchdowns by straight up out running an offensive player that otherwise would have broken free

[Shake n Blake]

Good stuff. This just cements how I've felt about the guy. He hasn't been very good, but he's not the steaming pile of excrement that some claim he is. If he were so bad, our pass D wouldn't have ranked so highly in the most important categories.

That said, I do think Kirk can be upgraded, and I'm hoping Dennard and WJ3 will actually get shots to actually play. It's kind of annoying that Marv spends all these 1st round picks on corners, only to make them ride pine through most of their rookie contracts.

[EatonFan]

(08-01-2016, 04:22 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Good stuff. This just cements how I've felt about the guy. He hasn't been very good, but he's not the steaming pile of excrement that some claim he is. If he were so bad, our pass D wouldn't have ranked so highly in the most important categories.

That said, I do think Kirk can be upgraded, and I'm hoping Dennard and WJ3 will actually get shots to actually play. It's kind of annoying that Marv spends all these 1st round picks on corners, only to make them ride pine through most of their rookie contracts.

Still a bit surprised by our 1st round pick, but easing them into the NFL seems to have worked well for the Bengals (in general).  Putting more on the CBs allows us to get away with average LBs who can more focus on the run. 

[wolfkaosaun]

These are the types of things I want to see and sadly PFF doesn't do that anymore. Especially with defensive backs.

They just give a grade and leave it at that. It used to be really informative but lately it's gotten worse and worse.

Kirkpatrick isn't as bad as people think. Sure, he's not an All Pro by any means, but he's done some pretty good things and people tend to ignore those.

[spazz70]

(08-02-2016, 01:08 AM)EatonFan Wrote: Still a bit surprised by our 1st round pick, but easing them into the NFL seems to have worked well for the Bengals (in general).  Putting more on the CBs allows us to get away with average LBs who can more focus on the run. 

Where is the easing?  Marvin has taken 5 CBs in the 1st round

Joseph- Started game one of his career
Hall- Started game one of his career, lead the team in INTs as a rookie
DreK- Injured most of rookie year and behind 3 top quality CBs in Hall, Jones and Newman
Dennard- Injured and behind Jones, Hall and DreK
WJ3- TBD

I think this whole easing thing is a myth.......

[TGISunday]

These ultra specific categories say he's not the best or the worst. Does little to assuage confidence in the guy.

[Sled21]

I'll never understand the attitudes of some people. Drafting #1 corners, and having them sit their first or first two years behind crafty veterans ,who were also high draft picks, who refuse to get beat out for the starting jobs is a bad thing evidently. It's like complaining that we'll never get to see what McCarron brings for a whole season because Dalton is playing too good...... I just don't get it.

[OrlandoBengal]

(08-02-2016, 08:57 AM)Sled21 Wrote: I'll never understand the attitudes of some people. Drafting #1 corners, and having them sit their first or first two years behind crafty veterans ,who were also high draft picks, who refuse to get beat out for the starting jobs is a bad thing evidently. It's like complaining that we'll never get to see what McCarron brings for a whole season because Dalton is playing too good...... I just don't get it.

McCarron was not a first round pick, he was a fourth.  I think that most people's thought process, mine included, is why not use that first round pick on someone who will contribute and fill a position of need.  Also that fact that the team is really not getting full benefit of the rookie salaries because our guy sits the bench and is only starting to produce by the time their extension comes up.

[Sled21]

(08-02-2016, 10:26 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: McCarron was not a first round pick, he was a fourth.  I think that most people's thought process, mine included, is why not use that first round pick on someone who will contribute and fill a position of need.  Also that fact that the team is really not getting full benefit of the rookie salaries because our guy sits the bench and is only starting to produce by the time their extension comes up.

Well "Best Player Available" sure seems to be working....

[*bfine32*]

Mediocre results of specific metrics aside; it is amazing what we consider "legit". Slam PFF but praise these guys. Did folks even read the qualifers they applied to their rankings? They penalized nicklebacks because they covered slot receivers.

Also "no respect" is just an imflamitory way of saying "questioned play".

[CageTheBengal]

(08-02-2016, 06:20 AM)spazz70 Wrote: Where is the easing?  Marvin has taken 5 CBs in the 1st round

Joseph- Started game one of his career
Hall- Started game one of his career, lead the team in INTs as a rookie
DreK- Injured most of rookie year and behind 3 top quality CBs in Hall, Jones and Newman
Dennard- Injured and behind Jones, Hall and DreK
WJ3- TBD

I think this whole easing thing is a myth.......

That's not true both Joseph and Hall saw more playing time towards the end of their rookie seasons but neither started from day one. We had Tory James and Deltha O Neal at the time starting and we eased them in just like we do now. The difference is James and O Neal weren't as good as the CBs we had starting in front of Kirk, Dennard and WJ3 so I think we were in more dire need of good secondary play. That and I believe a few injuries had Joseph and Hall contributing more quickly.

[OrlandoBengal]

(08-02-2016, 11:46 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Well "Best Player Available" sure seems to be working....

You really don't think this team could have benefitted from an upgrade anywhere on the roster over the last couple years?  Perhaps a first round pass rusher or linebacker could have helped get them over the playoff drought??

[OSUfan]

(08-02-2016, 10:26 AM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: McCarron was not a first round pick, he was a fourth.  I think that most people's thought process, mine included, is why not use that first round pick on someone who will contribute and fill a position of need.  Also that fact that the team is really not getting full benefit of the rookie salaries because our guy sits the bench and is only starting to produce by the time their extension comes up.

If you have to take a first round selection that has to contribute immediately then I am guessing your football team is not necessarily where you would like it to be. Not having to have your first round selection contribute is a very good thing.

I like many others feel there are position over others that warrant first round selections and I would put CB and OT near the top of that list.

[OSUfan]

(08-02-2016, 12:07 PM)OrlandoBengal Wrote: You really don't think this team could have benefitted from an upgrade anywhere on the roster over the last couple years?  Perhaps a first round pass rusher or linebacker could have helped get them over the playoff drought??

Are you saying that first round pass rusher or first round LB would have made the right call on the Bryant non reception or would have flagged Shazier or Porter?

[OrlandoBengal]

(08-02-2016, 12:22 PM)OSUfan Wrote: Are you saying that first round pass rusher or first round LB would have made the right call on the Bryant non reception or would have flagged Shazier or Porter?

Suddenly I feel as if I have stepped back into a nightmare discussion from two years ago

[Hammerstripes]

(08-02-2016, 12:02 PM)CageTheBengal Wrote: That's not true both Joseph and Hall saw more playing time towards the end of their rookie seasons but neither started from day one. We had Tory James and Deltha O Neal at the time and we eased them in just like we do now. The difference is James and O Neal weren't as good as the CBs we had starting in front of Kirk, Dennard and WJ3 so I think we were in more dire need of good secondary play. That and I believe a few injuries had Joseph and Hall contributing more quickly.

Pretty sure Deltha Oneill and Tory James were the starters in Joseph's first year - Joseph started 9/16 games

Pretty sure that Oneill and Joseph were starters ahead of Hall, who started 10/16 games

[CageTheBengal]

(08-02-2016, 01:06 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Pretty sure Deltha Oneill and Tory James were the starters in Joseph's first year - Joseph started 9/16 games

Pretty sure that Oneill and Joseph were starters ahead of Hall, who started 10/16 games

I thought that's what I said.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

So.....what we've learned here, is what a lot of people have always maintained......he ain't terrible, he ain't very good.  He doesn't live up to his draft status.....am I missing something here?

[*jason*]

(08-02-2016, 01:31 PM)Wyche Wrote: So.....what we've learned here, is what a lot of people have always maintained......he ain't terrible, he ain't very good.  He doesn't live up to his draft status.....am I missing something here?

No. This is just proving that he isn't the worst in the league. He's just the worst on his team.

I personally never bought into whatever PFF ranked him. My eyeballs just told me that I expected more from him. There's still time I guess.