Posts: 10,329
Threads: 539
Reputation:
50206
Joined: Jun 2015
Mood:
It is widely being reported RFK Jr. will announce he is leaving the Democratic Party and will enter 2024 Presidential race as an Independent.
He has expressed the lack of a pathway under the DNC rules.
How will this impact the election?
This is latest polling data on Democratic Presidential nominations as of September 19, 2023
RealClearPolitics
RCP POLL AVERAGE
2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination
65.0Biden +50.1
14.9Kennedy
4.9Williamson
Free Agency ain't over until it is over.
First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats
Posts: 7,279
Threads: 261
Reputation:
30006
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
Coming for Trumps votes. I heard quite a few people say they would vote for him if only he weren’t a dem. Well well well.
Posts: 13,120
Threads: 1,975
Reputation:
76326
Joined: May 2015
Mood:
To be fair, he isn’t much of a Democrat. I’m more concerned about Cornel West peeling off the extreme left than I am about Kennedy
Fueled by the pursuit of greatness.
Posts: 10,329
Threads: 539
Reputation:
50206
Joined: Jun 2015
Mood:
(09-30-2023, 12:36 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Coming for Trumps votes. I heard quite a few people say they would vote for him if only he weren’t a dem. Well well well.
I don't think you understand the Trump voters, they would never vote for a Kennedy. Now the never Trumpers who had 2 choices, Biden or Trump would vote Biden. Now they have a 3rd option.
What will "No Labels" do? Will they run Manchin or Gabbard? What impact will West have?
2024 is shaping up to be a weird election. I look forward to the polling if there are 4 or 5 options. It could be interesting.
Free Agency ain't over until it is over.
First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats
Posts: 4,962
Threads: 55
Reputation:
36413
Joined: Mar 2018
Location: Oklahoma
Mood: None
I don't think this is going to affect the election much at all. He wasn't viewed as much of a Democrat by Democratic voters and actually polls significantly better with Republicans. If he pulls any votes away from someone, the data suggest that it could be from a Republican candidate. How significant that would be, I don't know, but I am not currently banking on it being anything significant yet. In the 90's, Ross Perot ran as an independent and secured more than 5% of votes in the national election. Kennedy could potentially do something like this if his campaign goes well, but this is all speculation as he hasn't even entered polling as an independent just yet.
Posts: 4,155
Threads: 97
Reputation:
10641
Joined: May 2015
Location: cincinnati
Mood: None
Supposedly the announcement is Oct 9th. RFK Jr has already willingly leaked this to Reuters though.
Posts: 3,497
Threads: 39
Reputation:
11006
Joined: May 2015
Mood:
Well, it's pretty good news, if you ask me.
And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
Posts: 13,120
Threads: 1,975
Reputation:
76326
Joined: May 2015
Mood:
Fueled by the pursuit of greatness.
Posts: 13,120
Threads: 1,975
Reputation:
76326
Joined: May 2015
Mood:
those aren't Democratic voters
Fueled by the pursuit of greatness.
Posts: 24,596
Threads: 612
Reputation:
225935
Joined: May 2015
Location: Jackson, OH
Mood:
Years of reading people post about how the US needs more choices that just "R" and "D". When other options appear to approach viability? Turns out that what people really meant was they only want other choices that reduce the strength of their opposition... 
Volson is meh, but I like him, and he has far exceeded my expectations
-Frank Booth 1/9/23
Posts: 38,576
Threads: 1,701
Reputation:
55488
Joined: May 2015
Location: SW PA
Mood:
(10-03-2023, 08:05 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Years of reading people post about how the US needs more choices that just "R" and "D". When other options appear to approach viability? Turns out that what people really meant was they only want other choices that reduce the strength of their opposition...
To me it's like when P01135809 ran the 1st time. A lot of people wanted a "business man" instead of a politician in order to get our financials in order. And the one who runs is a tax cheat who had to settle multiple times over fraud charges.
It would be nice to have more choices if the choices were say, sane or at least decent.
![[Image: giphy.gif]](https://media0.giphy.com/media/1kwsTjL8BNqlszNtnCE/giphy.gif)
Your anger and ego will always reveal your true self.
Posts: 24,596
Threads: 612
Reputation:
225935
Joined: May 2015
Location: Jackson, OH
Mood:
(10-03-2023, 09:00 AM)GMDino Wrote: To me it's like when P01135809 ran the 1st time. A lot of people wanted a "business man" instead of a politician in order to get our financials in order. And the one who runs is a tax cheat who had to settle multiple times over fraud charges.
It would be nice to have more choices if the choices were say, sane or at least decent.
As in, only if they are in line with your particular views, right?
Volson is meh, but I like him, and he has far exceeded my expectations
-Frank Booth 1/9/23
Posts: 4,155
Threads: 97
Reputation:
10641
Joined: May 2015
Location: cincinnati
Mood: None
I'm seeing 538 is similar to the OP's numbers on this. Kennedy seems to poll between 15-18 percent as a democrat. But that is for people who vote democrat and he's in a different situation now. Initial poll should be interesting to see.
Posts: 5,173
Threads: 62
Reputation:
23304
Joined: May 2015
Mood: None
(10-03-2023, 09:14 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: As in, only if they are in line with your particular views, right?
In this case... I'd argue as in not being a batshit crazy conspiracy nut.
In general, that is the trick of the system, it's not Dino's fault. Within your ideological realm you have to remain behind one party and can not split the votes, or the other party wins for sure.
Folks like Kennedy will not shake the two-party system. Changing the whole voting system might.
Posts: 38,576
Threads: 1,701
Reputation:
55488
Joined: May 2015
Location: SW PA
Mood:
(10-03-2023, 09:14 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: As in, only if they are in line with your particular views, right?
As I've said before I've voted for many republicans in the past. Sometimes it is because I know them and I know they are decent human beings who will try to do the right thing and sometimes it is because we agree on an important issue even if we don't agree on all issues.
P01135809, for example, was and continues to be neither of those things.
No one should want to agree with everything a politician says. That's a cult. But to a finer point, I and most everyone else will lean toward people we agree with when voting.
That doesn't change the fact that wanting more options means better options.
Your anger and ego will always reveal your true self.
Posts: 28,004
Threads: 40
Reputation:
121980
Joined: May 2015
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Mood:
(10-03-2023, 08:05 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Years of reading people post about how the US needs more choices that just "R" and "D". When other options appear to approach viability? Turns out that what people really meant was they only want other choices that reduce the strength of their opposition...
As someone who has voted 3rd party for 15 years or so I refuse to accept a b.s. spouting, Jew-blaming Kennedy as an example of a novel and viable third choice.
Posts: 10,329
Threads: 539
Reputation:
50206
Joined: Jun 2015
Mood:
(09-30-2023, 11:33 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I don't think this is going to affect the election much at all. He wasn't viewed as much of a Democrat by Democratic voters and actually polls significantly better with Republicans. If he pulls any votes away from someone, the data suggest that it could be from a Republican candidate. How significant that would be, I don't know, but I am not currently banking on it being anything significant yet. In the 90's, Ross Perot ran as an independent and secured more than 5% of votes in the national election. Kennedy could potentially do something like this if his campaign goes well, but this is all speculation as he hasn't even entered polling as an independent just yet.
Do you have a source of polling RFK Jr. polls better with Republicans?
I have yet to see a poll from multiple sources.
Free Agency ain't over until it is over.
First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats
Posts: 10,329
Threads: 539
Reputation:
50206
Joined: Jun 2015
Mood:
(10-03-2023, 09:57 AM)Nately120 Wrote: As someone who has voted 3rd party for 15 years or so I refuse to accept a b.s. spouting, Jew-blaming Kennedy as an example of a novel and viable third choice.
Fair enough, just proves you were never one of the 15% supporting Kennedy as the Democratic nominee. It appears those weighing in were already voting for Biden.
Last night West said he would be on the ballot in all 50 states. It appears we will have at least 4 options in 2024 at a minimum, 5 if 'No Labels" adds a Presidential candidate.
I am interested to see a poll with all of the candidates. I think it is widely accepted Trump has a base of up to 45% that will never leave him. I am not sure Biden and Democrats have a up to 45% base, but we will find out soon.
Also, the October deadline for being on the ballot is fast approaching for Nevada. October 16th is last day for any candidate to get on the Nevada ballot.
Free Agency ain't over until it is over.
First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats
Posts: 4,962
Threads: 55
Reputation:
36413
Joined: Mar 2018
Location: Oklahoma
Mood: None
(10-03-2023, 10:31 AM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Do you have a source of polling RFK Jr. polls better with Republicans?
I have yet to see a poll from multiple sources.
I linked it in that post. However, I want to clarify because what I said can be misleading. What I linked in that post is a favorability poll. It is very similar to an approval rating for a sitting president. These types of polls aren't asking "who do you plan on voting for" but rather "do you like this candidate?". In that sense, RFK Jr. is polling significantly better with Republicans. As an aggregate, he polls +28 with Republicans and -5 for Democrats, meaning that Republican voters have a high opinion of him whereas Democratic voters do not. This aggregate is made up of eight different polls.
RFK Jr. is a conspiracy theorist which doesn't sit well with the base at large for Dems. He generally supports anti-vaccine opinions, including that vaccines cause autism, is a 9/11 truther, believes wi-fi causes cancer, chemicals in the water are causing kids to become transgender etc. None of those stances are going to win you much in a Democratic race.
Posts: 28,004
Threads: 40
Reputation:
121980
Joined: May 2015
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Mood:
(10-03-2023, 10:41 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: I linked it in that post. However, I want to clarify because what I said can be misleading. What I linked in that post is a favorability poll. It is very similar to an approval rating for a sitting president. These types of polls aren't asking "who do you plan on voting for" but rather "do you like this candidate?". In that sense, RFK Jr. is polling significantly better with Republicans. As an aggregate, he polls +28 with Republicans and -5 for Democrats, meaning that Republican voters have a high opinion of him whereas Democratic voters do not. This aggregate is made up of eight different polls.
RFK Jr. is a conspiracy theorist which doesn't sit well with the base at large for Dems. He generally supports anti-vaccine opinions, including that vaccines cause autism, is a 9/11 truther, believes wi-fi causes cancer, chemicals in the water are causing kids to become transgender etc. None of those stances are going to win you much in a Democratic race.
Rfk could peel away some conspiracy votes for Trump. They're already waiting for multiple Kennedy's to literally rise from the grave to save them and Trump's comments on vaccines put him at a disadvantage compared to RFKs unfettered accusations and assertions.
|
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
