Iowa Predictions

[BmorePat87]

Iowa is a week away. Republicans are making the secret ballot binding this year. That means that the actual voting process will determine which candidate the delegates will support. In the past, the voting, while not binding, was used by the media to say who "won" Iowa. In reality, it wasn't accurate. In 2012, it was Santorum, Romney, then Paul. In reality, Paul took 22 of 28 delegates and Romney took the other 6. Santorum's campaign failed to get any delegates elected in the actual caucus. Since delegates don't have to state who they're aligned with, Ron Paul delegates basically gamed the system.

But that has changed, so it's really less of a caucus now and more of a primary.

For Democrats, they have a complicated caucus system in which you win state delegates by winning precincts and counties. At the end of it all, the party counts things up and gives you a share of the national convention delegates based on how many state delegates you won.

So for your prediction, you are telling us the outcome of the Republican secret ballot and the outcome of the Democrat delegate allocation.

Mine:
GOP:
Trump- 27%
Cruz- 25%
Rubio- 18%

DNC:
1. Sanders
2. Clinton

[RoyleRedlegs]

I think Clinton and Cruz end up winning Iowa but it will be the last big win for Hilldog

[*michaelsean*]

Clinton and Cruz.

[BengalHawk62]

Democrats- Sanders wins narrowly over Clinton. 

Republican- Rubio-Rubio-Rubio
 I get the feeling Trump's brash talk and bravado is losing some steam here in Iowa.  And when our 'beloved' Republican Gov'nr tells the Establishment to NOT back Cruz, that's saying something. 

[Benton]

Sanders-Cruz.

Trump gained a little bit in Iowa with crazy lady bailing him out, but I don't think it will be enough for Iowans to go for the faux Christian Conservative. Which is much the same reason I think they'll go Bernie, at least with the popular vote. A lot of Christian denominations still believe a woman can't be put in a leadership role, which is going to hurt Clinton in Bible Belt states.

[StLucieBengal]

I agree with Benton partly.

Cruz/sanders

Trump bringing in Palin was a last ditch effort .... and the establishment now supporting trump over Cruz will probably help Cruz in the end with those same voters who they both are chasing.

[*bfine32*]

Is O'Malley officially out?

[Yojimbo]

(01-25-2016, 08:08 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Is O'Malley officially out?

Not yet. Still polling between 4-5%. He'll probably be out after Iowa and NH.

[SunsetBengal]

I see Trump and Sanders winning Iowa.

Not necessarily what I'm hoping for, just how I see it falling out.

[Rotobeast]

(01-25-2016, 11:24 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I see Trump and Sanders winning Iowa.

Not necessarily what I'm hoping for, just how I see it falling out.

Agreed.

[BmorePat87]

(01-25-2016, 11:13 PM)Yojimbo Wrote: Not yet. Still polling between 4-5%. He'll probably be out after Iowa and NH.

He needs to lose first and then he will endorse Clinton. Unfortunately for him, he doesn't have enough support to warrant a cabinet spot.

[BengalHawk62]

http://www.kcci.com/politics/poll-gop-race-tight-heading-into-iowa-caucuses/37640512


From today's local news. 

[StLucieBengal]

Bold prediction. Rand beats Rubio and Jeb.

[Mike M (the other one)]

Trump in a landslide and Sanders in a close one.

[fredtoast]

I predict they will cockus.

All of us.

[*jason*]

(01-26-2016, 02:42 PM)StLucieBengal Wrote: Bold prediction.   Rand beats Rubio and Jeb.

Sig bet?

[StLucieBengal]

jas Wrote:Sig bet?

Haha not sure I can do that until draft time.

If I got some points I would however.

Saw a poll he was within Margin of rubin and ahead of bush and only 4 people under 30 was polled. His whole outreach is dependent on younger voters and has a big system in Iowa working for him.

[JustWinBaby]

Joe Biden looking better every day...

[BmorePat87]

Overwhelming we have Trump and Sanders.

I guess we'll know in a few hours.