Making Turkey Great Again?

[Dill]

Looks like Erdogan--Turkey's answer to Trump--is winning his referendum. That means Turkey will become a "presidential" rather than a "parliamentary" democracy, and in this case a step short of a Putinesque-style dictatorship.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/16/turkey-referendum-recep-tayyip-erdogan-votes-presidential-powers
A “Yes” vote would replace Turkey’s parliamentary democracy with an all-powerful presidency and may see Erdogan in office until at least 2029, in the most radical change to the country’s political system in its modern history.

The outcome will also shape Turkey’s strained relations with the European Union. The NATO member state has curbed the flow of migrants - mainly refugees from wars in Syria and Iraq - into the bloc but Erdogan says he may review the deal after the vote.

This election map suggests there is a real urban/rural divide in the voting, blue state/red state style.

https://twitter.com/DiegoCupolo/status/853656578247077892/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2017%2Fapr%2F16%2Fturkey-referendum-recep-tayyip-erdogan-votes-presidential-powers.

I was prompted to this by B-Zona's post on the Syrian thread about Putin's overtures to Turkey, a desire to draw them out of the NATO orbit.  Could be the Middle East be radically re-configuring again (the last time being in 2003-11)?

If Turkish voters perceive they are seen as "weak" and believe a strong man who won't back down will make them an Ottoman-level player on the world stage again, what might be the consequences for the US, and for US military bases there?

Hard to believe they would rather have poor Russians based there, and hard to believe they would leave the EU or NATO, but given this turn of events it is difficult to assume what they perceive to be in their national interest. When fear of weakness drives foreign policy the result is generally instability.

First consequence, perhaps, the Turkish dam against Syrian refugees could break, sending a bigger flood into Europe.  

A farther consequence (along with closer ties to Putin) might be a move away from a secular state.

[Dill]

This article offers some backstory on the Erdogan's referendum. Any historical echoes here?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/10/turkish-referendum-all-you-need-to-know?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

What exactly will people be voting on?

The 18 amendments primarily deal with the powers of the executive and legislative branches. They include:

• The abolition of the post of prime minister. The president will appoint the cabinet and will have a number of vice-presidents. Parliament will no longer oversee the ministers as their power to initiate a motion of no confidence will be removed.
  

• The president will no longer have to be neutral, but will be able to maintain an affiliation to his political party. Currently the president has to sever ties with his party once he is elected.
  

• The number of members of parliament will be increased from 550 to 600 and their minimum age lowered to 18.
  

• It will be possible for the president to be impeached by parliament. At the moment he could only be prosecuted by the legislature if he committed treason.
  

• The abolition of military courts.
  

• The president will be able to appoint four out of 13 judges to the highest judicial board in the country.
  
  

Isn’t Turkey in a state of emergency?

Yes, and the environment in which the referendum is taking place is extremely challenging, particularly for those who oppose the changes.

The state of emergency was introduced last summer after a failed coup attempt in which 248 people were killed and more than 1,400 injured. The coup is widely believed in Turkey to have been orchestrated by followers of Fethullah Gülen, a reclusive preacher based in the US with a global grassroots movement known as Cemaat or Hizmet. Gülen denies this.

A purge of the civil service, police, military, judiciary, academia and media organisations has led to the dismissal or arrest of tens of thousands of people accused of links to the Gülenists. Erdoğan’s opponents say the purges have gone far beyond the coup’s perpetrators, and have turned into a witch-hunt against any political opposition.

So far, 152 journalists are in jail in Turkey, according to opposition parties, and a wide-ranging crackdown on the opposition People’s Democratic party (HDP) has resulted in a dozen of their lawmakers being detained, including their two chiefs.

Turkey has also endured a slew of terror attacks by Islamic State, the latest of which was an assault on the Reina nightclub on New Year’s Eve that killed 39 people. Attacks by the Kurdistan Workers party (PKK), a designated terror group fighting an insurgency in the south-east, have continued after the collapse of peace talks in June 2015.

[Bengalzona]

Sure hope our nuclear warheads in Turkey are secure.

[Dill]

(04-17-2017, 12:46 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Sure hope our nuclear warheads in Turkey are secure.

If we have warheads there, may be time to move them.  Think maybe they are already gone, but the appearance is maintained?

These changes in government remind a bit of the "Preussenschlag" back in 1932, when the Prussian parliament was put in check by an emergency decree, amidst street fighting and a history of parliamentary ineffectiveness. That set up the next "emergency decree" in the Reichstag, 1933. 

Now that the parliament cannot check him Erdogan can keep piling on powers.

I am also betting he will soon be requesting extradition of Fethullah Gulen again.  I am thinking Trump would not turn him over, would he?

[Bengalzona]

(04-17-2017, 01:22 AM)Dill Wrote: If we have warheads there, may be time to move them.  Think maybe they are already gone, but the appearance is maintained?

These changes in government remind a bit of the "Preussenschlag" back in 1932, when the Prussian parliament was put in check by an emergency decree, amidst street fighting and a history of parliamentary ineffectiveness. That set up the next "emergency decree" in the Reichstag, 1933. 

Now that the parliament cannot check him Erdogan can keep piling on powers.

I am also betting he will soon be requesting extradition of Fethullah Gulen again.  I am thinking Trump would not turn him over, would he?

I think we have about 79 warheads there which we maintain because of a NATO agreement. They are at a U.S. air base which is protected by the Turks.

[Dill]

(04-17-2017, 02:24 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: I think we have about 79 warheads there which we maintain because of a NATO agreement. They are at a U.S. air base which is protected by the Turks.

Why is that poor little Asian guy in your sig crying. Can't we do something to make him feel better?

[Bengalzona]

(04-17-2017, 10:36 AM)Dill Wrote: Why is that poor little Asian guy in your sig crying. Can't we do something to make him feel better?

We could send those 79 nukes to him! I think that would cheer him up!!

[Benton]

I wouldn't get too upset. Give it a couple years, there will be a coup and another change.

[Dill]

(04-18-2017, 08:31 AM)Benton Wrote: I wouldn't get too upset. Give it a couple years, there will be a coup and another change.

That is what the US and China should be working for--economic and diplomatic pressure to crash the regime from within.

Might not be as easy as the fall of East Germany though. The people their have grown up entirely inside a totalitarian system which rooted all authority in the Kim family.  Would be very hard to chuck that now. Mass psychosis.

[Bengalzona]

Trump gave Erdogwan a phone call this morning congratulating him on winning dictatorial powers, so... it's all good!

[GMDino]

(04-18-2017, 12:37 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: Trump gave Erdogwan a phone call this morning congratulating him on winning dictatorial powers, so... it's all good!  

Jumping Jebus on a pogo stick I hoped you were joking....

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/us/politics/trump-erdogan-turkey-referendum.html?_r=0

Quote:President Trump called President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey on Monday to congratulate him on winning a much-disputed referendum that will cement his autocratic rule over the country and, in the view of many experts, erode Turkey’s democratic institutions.



Those concerns were not mentioned in a brief readout of the phone call that the White House released Monday night. After noting Mr. Trump’s congratulations, the one-paragraph statement pivoted to a recent American missile strike on a Syrian airfield, which it said he and Mr. Erdogan had also discussed.


The statement did not say whether Mr. Trump had raised independent reports of voting irregularities during the Turkish referendum or the government’s heavy-handed tactics in the weeks leading up to it, when the country was under a state of emergency. The State Department noted both issues in a more cautious, less laudatory statement issued a few hours earlier.

The White House was also silent about the long-term implications of the referendum, which some experts have likened to a deathblow to democracy in Turkey. Mr. Erdogan’s narrow victory, in effect, ratifies his authoritarian rule. The change to Turkey’s Constitution will allow the winner of the 2019 presidential election to assume full control of the government, ending the current parliamentary political system.


In its statement, the State Department said, “We look to the government of Turkey to protect the fundamental rights and freedoms of all its citizens — regardless of their vote on April 16 — as guaranteed by the Turkish Constitution and in accordance with Turkey’s international commitments, such as under the Helsinki Charter.” That document compels its signatory nations, including Turkey, to uphold human rights.


Mr. Trump and Mr. Erdogan are viewed as ideological bedfellows: They are populist leaders with little patience for the courts or other checks on their power. But Mr. Erdogan has taken his authoritarian bent to an extreme, imposing the state of emergency and purging the opposition, academia and the army after a failed coup last year.


The White House emphasized that the two leaders were united in their determination to punish Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, for using chemical weapons against his own people. “President Trump thanked President Erdogan for supporting this action by the United States,” the statement said, referring to the April 6 missile attack in Syria.


It also stressed that the two men stand together in battling the Islamic State, or ISIS: “President Trump and President Erdogan also discussed the counter-ISIS campaign and the need to cooperate against all groups that use terrorism to achieve their ends.

”

[*wildcats forever*]

(04-18-2017, 01:12 PM)GMDino Wrote: Jumping Jebus on a pogo stick I hoped you were joking....

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/us/politics/trump-erdogan-turkey-referendum.html?_r=0

”

Birds of a feather ....

[Bengalzona]

(04-18-2017, 01:12 PM)GMDino Wrote: Jumping Jebus on a pogo stick I hoped you were joking....

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/17/us/politics/trump-erdogan-turkey-referendum.html?_r=0

”

"Hello? Manuel? Hey! It's me, Donnie! Look, I just wanted to send my congratulations on you appointing yourself dictator! What a big step for you!!!"

[GMDino]

(04-18-2017, 03:42 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: "Hello? Manuel? Hey! It's me, Donnie! Look, I just wanted to send my congratulations on you appointing yourself dictator! What a big step for you!!!"

"Listen, I know dictators, believe me. And you will be a great one.  One of the best.  Don't let the losers and the haters say otherwise.  Guys like us? We're winners."

[Dill]

(04-18-2017, 03:47 PM)GMDino Wrote: "Listen, I know dictators, believe me. And you will be a great one.  One of the best.  Don't let the losers and the haters say otherwise.  Guys like us? We're winners."