Nukes--India Pakistan, China, and Global Warming

[Dill]

Two nuclear powers--one very unstable--trade blows on the border of a third.

Here's What's Happening in the Undeclared War Between India and Pakistan
https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/heres-whats-happening-in-the-undeclared-war-between-ind-1832913251
A war started Monday night between two countries with arsenals full of nuclear weapons, and you probably haven’t even realized it. India and Pakistan are absolutely slugging it out again, and this is what’s going on.

The rivalry between neighbors India and Pakistan, which has resulted in multiple wars over the past seventy years, heated up Monday night with a cross-border air strike by Indian forces, which reportedly killed 300 militants.

Over Tuesday night the situation escalated with direct combat between the two countries, including the alleged shootdown of two Indian MiG-21 fighter jets, an Indian helicopter, and a Pakistani F-16.

The potential for an all-out slugfest between the two countries is made exponentially worse by the fact that the two countries both maintain stockpiles of nuclear weapons. A crisis between the two could quickly spiral into a full-scale conventional war, then nuclear war, with grave consequences not only for the region but the entire world.

But there are particulars of this conflict as well as policies from these two countries that could keep nukes out of the sky, things the rest of the world could learn from.

India-Pakistan tensions: All the latest updates
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/india-pakistan-tensions-latest-updates-190227063414443.html

Why China doesn't want to get caught in the middle of a India-Pakistan conflict
https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/28/asia/pakistan-india-china-crisis-intl/index.html

Beijing is on the verge of being sucked into an India-Pakistan crisis, amid rising tensions in the Kashmir region that borders China.
Diplomatic relations between longtime rivals India and Pakistan reached their lowest point in years this week, after Pakistan claimed its air force shot down two Indian jets over the disputed border Kashmir region, capturing one pilot.

Meanwhile, China's long-running trade war with the US has forced Beijing to look for alternative trading partners. As result, China has started to rebuild ties with rival rising power India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Last year Modi made two visits to China.

[Dill]

If India and Pakistan have a 'limited' nuclear war, scientists say it could wreck Earth's climate and trigger global famine

https://www.businessinsider.com/india-pakistan-kashmir-nuclear-weapons-climate-cooling-2019-2
A terror attack in Kashmir that killed at least 40 Indian troops led India to launch airstrikes on Pakistan — the first in more than 50 years between the two nations.

India and Pakistan each have about 140 to 150 nuclear weapons. Though nuclear conflict is unlikely, Pakistan has said its military is preparing for "all eventualities."

Climate scientists simulated the effects of limited regional nuclear war between the two countries and found that nuclear explosions could start firestorms that send millions of tons of smoke into the atmosphere. That could cripple the ozone layer, cause global cooling, and trigger food shortages.

The newest simulations showed that the effects would be "about five times worse than what we've previously calculated," one researcher said.

....Though the explosions would be local, the ramifications would be global, that research concluded. The ozone layer could be crippled and Earth's climate may cool for years, triggering crop and fishery losses that would result in what the researchers called a "global nuclear famine."

[Dill]

Thousands of flights disrupted worldwide as Pakistan airspace closed for second day
https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/27/asia/pakistan-india-flight-disruption-intl/index.html

ll international and domestic commercial flights in and out of Pakistan were canceled "until further notice," Pakistan's Civil Aviation Authority told CNN.
Thousands of people were also stranded by affected airlines that not only land in Pakistan, but fly over its airspace -- one of the major routes from Southeast Asia into Europe.
Thai Airways announced that all its European routes "departing near midnight of 27 FEB through early 28 FEB" were canceled "due to sudden closure of Pakistani airspace as a result of tension between India and Pakistan."

On Thursday morning, there were no Thai Airways flights between Bangkok and London, Munich, Paris, Brussels, Milan, Vienna, Stockholm, Zurich, Copenhagen and Oslo, the airline said in a statement.
By lunchtime Thai Airways had resumed "normal flight operations" to Europe "through airspace outside Pakistan's," the airline said. Thai Airways flights to Pakistan remain canceled, however.

[fredtoast]

I wonder what started all of this.  I have not been following that closely.  It seems like they have coexisted peacefully for a couple of decades now.

If we are going to start having "reboots" of old classic religious/political conflicts I'd like to see Iran and Irag start going at it again.

Or maybe a new round of bombings in Northern Ireland.  Too many people have forgotten how deadly white Christian terrorists can be.  That was the big conflict back when I first started paying attention to conflicts around the world.

[Dill]

(03-01-2019, 04:57 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I wonder what started all of this.  I have not been following that closely.  It seems like they have coexisted peacefully for a couple of decades now.

If we are going to start having "reboots" of old classic religious/political conflicts I'd like to see Iran and Irag start going at it again.

Or maybe a new round of bombings in Northern Ireland.  Too many people have forgotten how deadly white Christian terrorists can be.  That was the big conflict back when I first started paying attention to conflicts around the world.

This time around the immediate cause was the bombing of a bus, which killed some 40 members of India's military.

But things have never really been quiet in Kashmir since the last war.  India accuses Pakistan of allowing terrorist militia like the Party of Mohammed to roam in Kashmir, killing Indians and otherwise disrupting life on the Indian side of the border. Because they are not official state actors, Pakistan can then claim plausible deniability. And India is probably right about this.

This conflict should seriously concern the world, since Pakistan is an unstable nuclear power and India, while it generally does not provoke, has difficulty with restraint and is also a nuclear power, now led by a Hindu nationalist.

[Benton]

It's times like these I'm glad we've got a solid negotiator and we'll spoken leader to diffuse the situation , or, if necessary, threaten action devistating enough that both sides back off.



Oh. Crap.

[Dill]

(03-02-2019, 01:17 AM)Benton Wrote: It's times like these I'm glad we've got a solid negotiator and we'll spoken leader to diffuse the situation , or, if necessary, threaten action devistating enough that both sides back off.



Oh. Crap.

LOL. 

[Bengalzona]

For one of the most militarized and contested areas in the world surrounded by three nuclear powers, it is amazing how little most people in America know or care about Kashmir. And those who do know something about it generally tend to just to dismiss concerns of potential war there by saying "But it's been like that for decades".

So, here are a few facts about the area where our first true nuclear war is most likely to erupt.

Kashmir is an area northwest of India (or in northwestern India, depending upon who you talk to). Kashmir is a fertile valley with many mineral resources. The area has been highly desired by many powers for decades. It is bordered by India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China, all of whom have made claims on parts or all of the area. Currently, India holds 43% of the land and 70% of the population in the area. Pakistan has 37% of the land and China has 20%. The population is predominantly Muslim. However, the population has never felt strong ties with Pakistan and only marginal ties with India. Generally, they would like to be independent of all of their neighbors.

For historical reference, Pakistan used to be part of India and India used to be part of the British Empire. After World War II, Britain decided to divest itself of most of its overseas colonies. Due to the fact that India's population was a primarily mix of Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims, the British feared that independence could create an immediate war between the Hindu and Muslim populations in an ensuing struggle for dominance. In an effort to avoid this, the British devised the Partition Plan: a new nation of Pakistan would be formed from the predominantly Muslim districts to the west (and an area to the east known as East Pakistan back then, Bangladesh later) and India would comprise the remaining territory. Like most British plans for territories they were evacuating, it looked well and good on paper in offices in London. The reality was far different. If you saw the movie "Gandhi", you have an idea of what happened. When the "partition" took place, there were mass emigrations of millions of religious minorities from the areas in addition to violence and massacres. You got to hand it to the Brits, they sure know how to leave behind a mess when they leave a place!

And to demonstrate just how adept the Brits are at leaving a mess, they left with the Kashmir question unanswered. The population was majority Muslim. But they did not want to be part of Pakistan (they didn't like the secular-type aspects of the new Paki government). They wanted to be an independent state. Both Pakistan and India wanted the Kashmir area. Pakistan sent irregulars to intimidate the Kashmiris into joining Pakistan. The Kashmiris appealed to India which agreed to help if Kashmir would accede to India. The Kashmiris reluctantly agreed and India sent in troops to chase the Paki irregulars out.

It would have been nice if that was the end of the story. But, obviously, it is not. Pakistan and India would fight wars over the area in 1948, 1965 and 1999. China also initiated a claim on part of the area in the 1950's and would fight a war with India over it in 1962. As it stand now, Pakistan controls the northern portion of Kashmir, India the southern and central portion and China the northeast portion. If you examine the dates each of these nations developed their initial nuclear weapons (China - 1962, India - 1974, and Pakistan - 1998) you can see the relationship between the conflicts and the nuclear proliferation in the area. China and India have both developed fusion weapons. The Pakis only have fission weapons at this point. India and Pakistan are each believed to maintain an arsenal of 100 to 150 warheads, all in the 20 to 40 kiloton range. China is believed to have an arsenal of approximately 250 warheads of from 1 to 4 megatons each. India and Pakistan maintain short-range land-based ballistic missile delivery systems, while China maintains an assortment of land-based and sea-based long-range ballistic missile systems. Note: All of these nuclear weapons combined are but a fraction of the stockpiles of either the United States or Russia, particularly in terms of the potential yields (a single Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine carries 24 Trident II ballistic missiles, each with 12 independent re-entry warheads yielding in the 0.5 to 0.75 mt range... that's 288 such warheads! We have 14 of these submarines.).

As you can see, India and Pakistans' nuclear arsenals are somewhat small and limited (enough to cripple each other and make China angry, but not a real threat to the United States). This is one of the reasons America ignores the region and things that go on there. Technically, we ought to be friends with India. But because we want to be friends with the Saudis and their Muslim buddies, we have elected to be friends with Pakistan instead (as much as one can be friends with the Pakis). The war in Afghanistan entrenched us in that position. China has warmed up to India in recent years. Their situation in the Kashmir is pretty stabilized (China is happy with controlling the area they control and India is happy to leave them alone). With 13 neighboring nations, 3 of which are also nuclear powers, China has other concerns than trying to bully India anymore or making territorial gains (at least land-based anyway). The current U.S. trade war has sent China to India and Russia to do additional business, which has strengthened ties between these countries (nice move, Trump).

So, the issue here is really between Pakistan and India. Apparently, Pakistan (probably through a terrorist group) initiated an attack which killed 40 Indian soldiers. India responded with air strikes which killed 300 Pakis. Pakistan shot down a couple of Indian fighters (F-16's versus Mig-21's, WTF?!?! They only shot down two?!?!). Apparently, as of tonight, Pakistan returned the downed Indian pilot they captured.

So where does this go from here?

The ball is really in Pakistan's court at this time. Considering that their initial attack was small and limited, I'm willing to bet they either let this die down or respond to the air strikes in some limited fashion (i.e. I don't think they are ready to fully go to war again at this point).

[Dill]

(03-02-2019, 02:24 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: So where does this go from here?

The ball is really in Pakistan's court at this time. Considering that their initial attack was small and limited, I'm willing to bet they either let this die down or respond to the air strikes in some limited fashion (i.e. I don't think they are ready to fully go to war again at this point).

This just in--

Pakistan - India news latest: Live updates on border standoff after Pakistan warns tension could impact Afghanistan
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/india-pakistan-news-latest-updates-on-border-standoff-a4081676.html

Train service has resumed between the two countries. That is a good sign.

But Modi is accusing his opposition of "aiding the enemy" during this brief conflict.  Hindu nationalism + scapegoating doesn't bode well for the future of the world's largest democracy--or for future of the world.  Questions about government versions of the conflict turn out to be "cheering the enemy!"  Shades of Vietnam and Iraq.

Imran Khan appears to be the adult in the room, having returned the Indian pilot who was shot down, a move now credited with scaling down the conflict. If he could actually control his own military and intel . . . .

Interestingly, there are peace protests in Indian now who want unilateral bombing stopped.

[fredtoast]

I always considered the Hindu religion pretty non-violent, but they were extremely violent in the conflicts following the partition.

I never really intended to study the history of the region, but I have read almost everything Salman Rushdie has written and many of his books have strong historical/political themes. A good portion of The Moor's Last Sigh was devoted to the political corruption and violence following the partition.

[Dill]

(03-04-2019, 02:50 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I always considered the Hindu religion pretty non-violent, but they were extremely violent in the conflicts following the partition.

I never really intended to study the history of the region, but I have read almost everything Salman Rushdie has written and many of his books have strong historical/political themes.  A good portion of The Moor's Last Sigh was devoted to the political corruption and violence following the partition.

Havent' read that. But The Satanic Verses got me interested in Indian culture and post colonial literature.  Also, in the 80s and 90s I looked a lot like Rushdie (bald head, beard, glasses). Several times Indians pointed out the unnerving resemblance.  Was never fatwa'd, though!

Actually, Hindu religion/culture is pretty diverse and multifaceted. There are strong pacifist strains, but also nationalist. The BJP keeps whipping up that nationalism by scapegoating Muslims and Marxists. They are VERY strong in Mahrashtra  and renamed Bombay "Mumbai."  There was a serious anti muslim riot there back in the '70s.  Hindus killed hundreds of Muslims.

[*bfine32*]

Well wouldn't the global cooling caused by this war combat the global warming caused by my lawnmower?

[Dill]

(03-02-2019, 02:24 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: So, the issue here is really between Pakistan and India. Apparently, Pakistan (probably through a terrorist group) initiated an attack which killed 40 Indian soldiers. India responded with air strikes which killed 300 Pakis. Pakistan shot down a couple of Indian fighters (F-16's versus Mig-21's, WTF?!?! They only shot down two?!?!). Apparently, as of tonight, Pakistan returned the downed Indian pilot they captured.

That dogfight has raised questions about the readiness of India's military--not just the air force.

After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise About Its ‘Vintage’ Military
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/world/asia/india-military-united-states-china.html

India’s armed forces are in alarming shape.

If intense warfare broke out tomorrow, India could supply its troops with only 10 days of ammunition, according to government estimates. And 68 percent of the army’s equipment is so old, it is officially considered “vintage.”

“Our troops lack modern equipment, but they have to conduct 21st-century military operations,” said Gaurav Gogoi, a lawmaker and member of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defense.

American officials tasked with strengthening the alliance talk about their mission with frustration: a swollen bureaucracy makes arms sales and joint training exercises cumbersome; Indian forces are vastly underfunded; and the country’s navy, army and air force tend to compete rather than work together.

Also some interesting points here on the US strategic perspective.

Whatever the problems, the United States is determined to make the country a key ally in the coming years to hedge against China’s growing regional ambition.

Last year, when Defense Secretary Jim Mattis announced that the Pentagon was renaming its Pacific Command — to Indo-Pacific — he emphasized India’s importance in a shifting world order.

“It is our primary combatant command,” said Mr. Mattis, who left the Pentagon at the end of the year. “It’s standing watch and intimately engaged with over half of the earth’s surface and its diverse populations, from Hollywood to Bollywood.”

[Bengalzona]

(03-04-2019, 07:27 PM)Dill Wrote: That dogfight has raised questions about the readiness of India's military--not just the air force.

After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise About Its ‘Vintage’ Military
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/world/asia/india-military-united-states-china.html

India’s armed forces are in alarming shape.

If intense warfare broke out tomorrow, India could supply its troops with only 10 days of ammunition, according to government estimates. And 68 percent of the army’s equipment is so old, it is officially considered “vintage.”

“Our troops lack modern equipment, but they have to conduct 21st-century military operations,” said Gaurav Gogoi, a lawmaker and member of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defense.

American officials tasked with strengthening the alliance talk about their mission with frustration: a swollen bureaucracy makes arms sales and joint training exercises cumbersome; Indian forces are vastly underfunded; and the country’s navy, army and air force tend to compete rather than work together.

Also some interesting points here on the US strategic perspective.

Whatever the problems, the United States is determined to make the country a key ally in the coming years to hedge against China’s growing regional ambition.

Last year, when Defense Secretary Jim Mattis announced that the Pentagon was renaming its Pacific Command — to Indo-Pacific — he emphasized India’s importance in a shifting world order.

“It is our primary combatant command,” said Mr. Mattis, who left the Pentagon at the end of the year. “It’s standing watch and intimately engaged with over half of the earth’s surface and its diverse populations, from Hollywood to Bollywood.”

MIG-21's in 2019 definitely qualify as "vintage". They are almost as old as B-52's. Not good for an interceptor.

F-16's are no spring chickens anymore either, but they are still useful.