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Who wins? Deep down in your soul, who do you think is going to win the election next Tuesday. What's your prediction? Me, personally from my POV, I think Trump is going to win. There's a ton of Trump signs here in and around the state of Iowa. You can travel up to Spirit Lake and over to Waterloo and down to Oskaloosa and back over to Council Bluffs and there are probably 10 to 1 Trump signs to Hillary's. Is that the way it is where you live?
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Right now, polling averages have Clinton at a 72% chance to win this election. This has been tightening (high point was 88% right before the third debate) but this is still a huge lead. To give you some insight, at this point in 2012 Obama was at a 52% chance to win. All of the maps as of yesterday still show a Clinton win.
If I were to go by yard signs, I'd say Virginia was going Trump, but that's definitely not what the polling shows. So it can be difficult to judge based on what you see around you.
All of this being said, we are still one week out and anything can happen.
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I heard on NPR today, that the GOP has a slight lead in early voter turnout, which is usually a strong indicator. The say the Black vote is not showing up for Hills early like it did Obama. They also said of course votes were not counted, just registered voters.
I will say my state is looking more Pro-Trump, but we're not really a swing state anyway.
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(11-01-2016, 03:46 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: If I were to go by yard signs, I'd say Virginia was going Trump, but that's definitely not what the polling shows.
Most likely because Libs don't have yards.
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(11-01-2016, 03:58 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Most likely because Libs don't have yards.
Bull.
Cemeteries have plenty of grass.
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(11-01-2016, 03:05 PM)BengalHawk62 Wrote: Who wins? Deep down in your soul, who do you think is going to win the election next Tuesday. What's your prediction? Me, personally from my POV, I think Trump is going to win. There's a ton of Trump signs here in and around the state of Iowa. You can travel up to Spirit Lake and over to Waterloo and down to Oskaloosa and back over to Council Bluffs and there are probably 10 to 1 Trump signs to Hillary's. Is that the way it is where you live?
Certainly not the American people either way.
 (but only sorta)
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(11-01-2016, 03:56 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I heard on NPR today, that the GOP has a slight lead in early voter turnout, which is usually a strong indicator. The say the Black vote is not showing up for Hills early like it did Obama. They also said of course votes were not counted, just registered voters.
I will say my state is looking more Pro-Trump, but we're not really a swing state anyway.
Yeah, that is a difficult indicator because the votes aren't actually being counted, yet. I think it was Florida, specifically, that they were talking about (I listen to NPR at work, so I probably heard the same thing, but it doesn't get my full attention) but I could be wrong. It also isn't taking into account those voters not identifying with a particular party.
Either way, this is going to be a closer race than a lot of people were thinking, including myself. The trend on the likelihood of winning percentage has been getting closer at a much quicker pace than I expected. The trend after the first debate is damn near circular.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
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I can't judge all of PA on what I see in my neighborhoods, but I can't ignore that 4 and 8 years ago the same neighborhoods had 10 to 1 signs/bumper stickers/whatever in favor of Obama. Now it's 25 to 1 in favor of Trump. And I saw more Bernie signs during the primaries than I have seen Clinton signs all year.
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(11-01-2016, 04:14 PM)Benton Wrote: Bull.
Cemeteries have plenty of grass.
My fecal matter is amiss !!
But on topic..... I live in Trump-topia.
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Sorta on topic: Has anyone seen a Trump commercial lately? Watching Game 6 of the WS, I've seen 2 commercials "approved" by Hills; neither of which addressed what she would do and one commercial by Amazon that showed a Trump victory and then someone inquiring about a one-way ticket to Canada.
EDIT: I just saw a commercial "approved" by the NRA slamming Hills.
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Whenever I drive through rural PA I see all the Trump signs and think "Wow, Trump sure is popular!" and then I remember that Pittsburgh and Philadelphia exist.
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(11-01-2016, 11:25 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Sorta on topic: Has anyone seen a Trump commercial lately? Watching Game 6 of the WS, I've seen 2 commercials "approved" by Hills; neither of which addressed what she would do and one commercial by Amazon that showed a Trump victory and then someone inquiring about a one-way ticket to Canada.
EDIT: I just saw a commercial "approved" by the NRA slamming Hills.
Yeah, we get Trump commercials here. They are the same sorta thing, nothing really about Trump, just bashing Clinton. And they are the "approved by Trump" type.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
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I actually haven't seen a single Trump ad up here in New England. Granted, I watch very little TV, and fast forward through commercials. The only ads I see are Hillary ads and NRA ads against Clinton.
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Very rarely see the occasional anti-Hillary ad, but it seems like every commercial break on the Science Channel has back-to-back anti-Trump ads. It's actually quite annoying. I don't want to see 8 anti-Trump ads per hour of programming.
Turned that shit on to see science (and occasionally aliens), not politics. Lol
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Heard a report today about predicting the election using betting lines. Political scientist was making tue argument that these betting lines have been around far longer and are a good predictor of elections, better than polls possibly. Was very interesting.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
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Aaaaaand I literally just saw a pro Trump ad minutes after posting.
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(11-02-2016, 09:29 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Heard a report today about predicting the election using betting lines. Political scientist was making tue argument that these betting lines have been around far longer and are a good predictor of elections, better than polls possibly. Was very interesting.
I heard one of the talking heads say that 90% of the new money is going on Trump.
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(11-02-2016, 09:55 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I heard one of the talking heads say that 90% of the new money is going on Trump.
Trump has the momentum right now. It will just be a question of whether or not it will vault him past Clinton.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
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(11-02-2016, 09:59 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Trump has the momentum right now. It will just be a question of whether or not it will vault him past Clinton.
The same commentator was mentioning how Trump was several days ahead of the Reagan curve.
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(11-02-2016, 10:02 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The same commentator was mentioning how Trump was several days ahead of the Reagan curve.
On what measure?
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