Putin’s Price Hike

[*Nately120*]

(04-14-2022, 11:49 AM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I wonder if that was a known thing back then if Hinkley wouldn't have shot Reagan to impress her?

He was probably nuts enough to think she was only deluded or duped into thinking she didn't like men. 

[NATI BENGALS]

So what is causing all the inflation? Other than the generic talking point to just blame Biden.

I start the finger pointing with the pandemic having something to do with it. The “great resignation”. Rising wages as companies fight to hire people. Supply chain bottlenecks. Oil companies recouping their losses from 2020. Torn up trade deals and new tariffs in recent years.

If it’s all on Biden, why?

[Sled21]

(04-14-2022, 02:29 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: So what is causing all the inflation? Other than the generic talking point to just blame Biden.

I start the finger pointing with the pandemic having something to do with it. The “great resignation”. Rising wages as companies fight to hire people. Supply chain bottlenecks. Oil companies recouping their losses from 2020. Torn up trade deals and new tariffs in recent years.

If it’s all on Biden, why?

I blame Biden for fuel increases, but the inflation started, IMO (and I am not an economist) with the Covid relief payments. The govt. pumped a lot of money they printed and handed it out over and over, devaluing the dollar. Supply chain bottlenecks could be fixed, again IMO, somewhat by relieving some of the regulations on truckers so they can actually move the freight once it's offloaded. 

[NATI BENGALS]

(04-14-2022, 02:56 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I blame Biden for fuel increases, but the inflation started, IMO (and I am not an economist) with the Covid relief payments. The govt. pumped a lot of money they printed and handed it out over and over, devaluing the dollar. Supply chain bottlenecks could be fixed, again IMO, somewhat by relieving some of the regulations on truckers so they can actually move the freight once it's offloaded. 

That’s when I thought it started as well. A bunch of people not going to work, thus not producing goods or providing services, but with money in their pocket buying the same things as everyone else. Across the globe the same thing in most places, shut down and people not working. Inventory dried up. Then things start opening up, people get back out and back to work making more money than they were before for a lot of them, but inventory hasn’t been replenished or had a chance to catch back up with demand.

I saw the truckers blame the dock workers, the dock workers blame the truckers. Then truckers blocking cities moving zero products. Truckers blocking border crossings.

[Goalpost]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/producer-price-index-march-2022-.html

This month's PPI came in at over 11 percent year over year while CPI came in at 8.5 percent. This week I heard the term price gauging...and that doesn't reflect the truth. It cost more for wholesalers than it does the consumers. If it was price gauging, the opposite would be happening.

High wages are a factor. I've stopped my occasional McDonald's breakfast because they done 4 price increases in the last year and a half.

[KillerGoose]

(04-14-2022, 02:56 PM)Sled21 Wrote: I blame Biden for fuel increases, but the inflation started, IMO (and I am not an economist) with the Covid relief payments. The govt. pumped a lot of money they printed and handed it out over and over, devaluing the dollar. Supply chain bottlenecks could be fixed, again IMO, somewhat by relieving some of the regulations on truckers so they can actually move the freight once it's offloaded. 

Why do you blame him for the fuel prices? 

[Sled21]

(04-14-2022, 06:53 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Why do you blame him for the fuel prices? 

Because fuel prices are set mostly by oil speculators who invest or not in the oil and gas industry. When Biden said one of the 1st things on his agenda was to do everything he could to kill the fossil fuel industry, oil speculators quit investing. It's not just getting the oil out of the ground, you have to have permits to find it, you have to have new permits to produce it, you have to have the infrastructure to move it, and to process it. He's made producing a gallon of gasoline extremely harder, shutting down exploration and drilling permits, shutting down pipelines, etc., all of which causes the price to go up. The President sets the tone. Trumps tone was Drill Baby Drill and Biden's tone is Kill Fossil Fuels.

[KillerGoose]

(04-15-2022, 08:59 AM)Sled21 Wrote: Because fuel prices are set mostly by oil speculators who invest or not in the oil and gas industry. 

Well, this isn't true. At minimum, your verbiage is incorrect. Fuel prices are not mostly set by speculators, they are set by S&D. This is the basic principle of a commodity on the market. When COVID hit, oil demand tanked and caused a situation where oil briefly went upside down. There was quite literally too much supply for the level of demand. Production then slowed down. Now, demand has returned to pre-COVID levels, roughly, but production has not (yet). So, we have high demand, but not yet high supply. This is the single biggest factor in high prices. Then, there is the whole Ukraine situation. 

Quote:When Biden said one of the 1st things on his agenda was to do everything he could to kill the fossil fuel industry, oil speculators quit investing.

Overall, I agree that Biden is not friendly towards the FF industry. I've mentioned this before, but I work in the oil industry as an analyst. Now, I don't have the resume that Stewy does, but I work closely with our Risk & Trading teams daily. What you're saying here doesn't make any sense. When a trade desk agrees to a futures contract, they are essentially betting on the price of that commodity. Until recently, the market was in backwardation. This means that current, or whichever spot month the contract is for, oil prices were higher than future oil prices. I can assure you, speculators have absolutely not stopped investing. Futures are traded at a high volume every single day. Every company, from the company I work for to Chevron, BP, Marathon, Exxon etc. all have derivative traders that are pushing thousands of futures contracts to the market every single day. These contracts can bet on whether the price will go up or it will go down. 

Quote:It's not just getting the oil out of the ground, you have to have permits to find it, you have to have new permits to produce it, you have to have the infrastructure to move it, and to process it.

Yes, this is correct to the best of my understanding. This is Stewy's area of expertise, I am not familiar with this side of the business. 

Quote:He's made producing a gallon of gasoline extremely harder, shutting down exploration and drilling permits, shutting down pipelines, etc., all of which causes the price to go up. The President sets the tone. Trumps tone was Drill Baby Drill and Biden's tone is Kill Fossil Fuels.

Biden has shut down a pipeline. This pipeline has become a sore & misinformed talking point. It's important to remember that his pipeline was never operational, and was never even close to operational. The shutting down of the pipeline has no meaningful effect on prices or supply. Oil production is still slowly recovering and recent data has the U.S. producing 11.3m bbls per day. By EOY 2023, we are expected to hit 12.6m bbls per day, which will be an all-time record if it stays true. 

Now, it is my understanding that Biden has made it difficult to obtain new permits and I do believe that his policies are overall not as friendly to FF as Trump's were, but the current price situation is not due to Biden's policies IMO. If we have insanely high dollar oil five years from now, that could be potentially linked to Biden, but not right now. Again, there is a fantastic post by Stewy in another thread that covers much of this information in further detail. That post and thread is here. He has several posts in here that are very educating and interesting to read through. A good quote of his that I believe sums it up is this...

Quote:Bidens only been in office a year.  He has been no friend to the industry, but what he's doing will affect prices far further into the future.  He's not hampering production, but delaying finding new opportunities.