Reasons why Trump will win or lose.

[GMDino]

Trump will lose because he never became "presidential" and expanded his base.  He remains a characterture that he plays in public.  That's why "kidding" about slowing down tests hurts him.  Whether he means it or even understands it he just says it to get a reaction from his "fans".  He doesn't read, learn and no matter how many times we "gave him a chance" he never changed.  It's like everyone who said if you take an egomaniac who loudly and childishly reacts to any negative comment as a personal assault and give him almost unlimited power he wouldn't suddenly become calm and reasonable were right.

Trump will win because there is still a solid percentage of people who don't believe anything bad about him at all.  Nothing.  He could literally shoot someone and they would still vote for them because he was "draining the swamp" or "tough on crime".  They buy every ounce of snakeoil and refuse any outside information that contradicts that.  And if the Democrats cannot get a large turnout at the polls Trump will slip in again...probably while still losing the popular vote.

Also, apparently, he MUST win because...television ratings. 

Is this what you want for your President??? With no ratings, media will go down along with our great USA! https://t.co/dtJm3J2BPr

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 13, 2020

 

[fredtoast]

Here is an issue that might deserve its own thread.

I know several of my conservative friends claimed they had to vote for Trump in 2016 because of the potential openings on the Supreme Court. Even though they did not really like him that much they figured a few years of a poor President was worth MANY years of a conservative Supreme Court.

But now his appointees are making some rulings based on law instead of right wing political rhetoric.

If there had been a huge Supreme Court victory for the conservatives on abortion or guns I think it would have been a huge boost for Trump.

[GMDino]

(07-13-2020, 10:09 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Here is an issue that might deserve its own thread.

I know several of my conservative friends claimed they had to vote for Trump in 2016 because of the potential openings on the Supreme Court.  Even though they did not really like him that much they figured a few years of a poor President was worth MANY years of a conservative Supreme Court.

But now his appointees are making some rulings based on law instead of right wing political rhetoric.

If there had been a huge Supreme Court victory for the conservatives on abortion or guns I think it would have been a huge boost for Trump.

Absolutely!  The 35-40% that will love him no matter what "think" he believes in getting rid of abortion and God, Guns and America but most of them are not reading the SCOTUSblog for every decision.  The fringe ones are and they are the ones wondering if ANOTHER four years of chaos is worth the *possibility* of overturning Roe v Wade or some other large event.  Trump is losing those people because the court seems to be intent on not doing anything too "political"...for now.

[Belsnickel]

Note that these are being typed out without me reading any previous responses in this thread because I am lazy.

Trump will lose because so many of those that bought into him in 2016 because they thought he would grow up (for lack of a better term) when he got into the office and be checked by the grownups in Congress have been proven wrong. Seeing what has happened has caused them to rethink that decision.

Trump will win because the Republicans are better at electoral math. Republicans are better at elections, Democrats are better at governing.

[*Nately120*]

(07-12-2020, 11:04 PM)bfine32 Wrote: My bad:

1. Trump will lose because...He has done nothing to broaden his base, but he has alienated some Republicans that used to support him. Trump has turned against so many highly respected military men (Jim Mattis, John Kelly) and the way he handled the USS Theodore Roosevelt incident and the current Russian bounty issue have also weakened his support in that part of his base. Also rural coal workers who strongly supported Trump are starting to realize that his support for fossil fuels does not include coal.


2. Trump will win because...Fear is a powerful motivator and Trump will be able to scare enough people with the threats of lawless riots destroying the country.

I will say it's odd how well the fear of no one being there when you call the police resonates with the "when seconds matter, the police are minutes away" and "we don't call 911" crowds.  Though i guess the liberals gave a new threat now that they will take your guns and then make sure the police dont exist.  Oof.

[fredtoast]

(07-13-2020, 11:29 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Trump will lose because so many of those that bought into him in 2016 because they thought he would grow up (for lack of a better term) when he got into the office and be checked by the grownups in Congress

Another very good point.

I remember hearing over and over again that it did not matter that Trump had zero experience in politics because he would "surround himself with the best experts in the field".

Instead he has mostly appoint his friends and financial supporters.  And as soon as any of them disagree with him they are fired.

It boggles my mind that life long Republicans are throwing respected long time public servants like James Mattis, John Kelly, and Jim Comey under the bus just too keep supporting Trump.

[*Nately120*]

(07-13-2020, 12:29 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Another very good point.

I remember hearing over and over again that it did not matter that Trump had zero experience in politics because he would "surround himself with the best experts in the field".

Instead he has mostly appoint his friends and financial supporters.  And as soon as any of them disagree with him they are fired.

It boggles my mind that life long Republicans are throwing respected long time public servants like James Mattis, John Kelly, and Jim Comey under the bus just too keep supporting Trump.

Trump is luck Reagan is dead because he might be the only person neo cons wouldn't turn on in favor of Trump. 

[BmorePat87]

Trump will lose because he has clearly given up on what little he was doing to deal with the pandemic and voters have noticed

Trump will win because voter turnout will be low in November

[BrownAssClown]

Trump will win if we have a fair and honest election!

Trump will lose because it's "Rigged" for "Crooked Hillary!" err...I mean "Sleepy Joe!"

[*Nately120*]

The biggest knock against Trump could be that he's no longer an unknown commodity. Hillary was like a middling starting QB and Trump was the unknown 3rd string rookie we may as well give a shot because we weren't going all the way with Hillary and we dont know what we have in Trump.

I think most people consider Trump less of a Tom Brady and more of an XFL-caliber backup now that reality has sunk in.

[*michaelsean*]

Trump will win because: Biden

Trump will lose if because Biden isn't enough.

[GMDino]

(07-16-2020, 11:09 AM)michaelsean Wrote: Trump will win because: Biden

Trump will lose if because Biden isn't enough.

Just out of curiosity...enough what?

To me it's "I've been beaten with a stick for four years.  I have the choice between being beaten with the stick for another four or being hit with a pillow that is a color I don't like.  How can I possible choose?!?!"  

[*michaelsean*]

(07-16-2020, 11:15 AM)GMDino Wrote: Just out of curiosity...enough what?

To me it's "I've been beaten with a stick for four years.  I have the choice between being beaten with the stick for another four or being hit with a pillow that is a color I don't like.  How can I possible choose?!?!"  

Basically I'm just saying it all rides on how people take to Biden.  If Trump wins it's because Biden is perceived as really bad, if Trump loses it's because Biden's bad wasn't bad enough to save Trump.  Trump's base isn't enough to make it even close.  His only hope, in my opinion, is that Biden just comes off horrific, and people either stay home or vote another way.