Roe vs Wade vs SCOTUS legitimacy

[Dill]

(05-18-2022, 01:18 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I don't know, but the entire deal seemed rather hollow of any actual authority.  After reading the following, it seemed to me like Iran could just simply veto inspectors that they didn't like, and the "request process" for inspecting suspicious sites seemed to lack any ability to actually catch Iran doing anything wrong, without them being able to buy time to get rid of any evidence.

YOW! Someone is trying to measure my statements about the Iran Deal against actual provisions of the treaty--or in this case, the provisions as they were understood leading to the final stage of ratification, before all issues were resolved.

You are a long-time buddy, Sunset, so I would never do you harm, but if I reported this, you'd have to turn in your MAGA hat. 

Joking aside, you raise some good points here.

As to buying time to "get rid of evidence": 

1. Some "evidence" they are allowed to get rid of. Like any other country, Iran has a right to keep military dispositions secret. The non-nuclear aspects of Iranian self-defense are not subject to the treaty.

2. It is very difficult to get rid of "nuclear evidence" of the type being monitored. If one is refining uranium to weapons grade in some underground installation, the nuclear footprint cannot be easily erased, sometimes lasting for years. E.g., you'd have to dig out the sight and cart off building material, maybe even soil. That level of activity would be monitored by satellite--a red flag saying "I broke the treaty." (At least, this is how I understand reasoning behind the one-month window.) It's not like a coke lab, where you can just pack everything into a truck and disappear, or flush product if you have to.

As far as "vetoing inspectors," effectively picking their own, no, they can't do that. If they could, the treaty could not go forward. The ONLY pool of inspectors available are going to be those, first of all, QUALIFIED to do the job, and second of all, ferociously independent of individual states, including the signatories. And vetoing inspections breaks the deal.

Remember, Iran signed the deal because a significant portion of Iranians wanted it to work. If you think about it, it is amazing that a country whose politics are subject to such paranoid and hierarchical control allowed this massive penetration of its nuclear and military sights. They understandably viewed this as a tremendous risk and involving a degree of humiliation--especially if it doesn't work. For all they know, all manner of spying can occur during inspections. (Think of the U.S. allowing Iranian inspectors on our sites. How would our hard liners react to that?)

Mossad, Israel's version of the CIA, thought the JPCOA a very good deal in 2015, because it so drastically curtailed Iran's nuclear program. They gave up hundreds of kilos of weapons grade uranium, which had taken them years to make. Breakout time went suddenly from 6 weeks to a year+. 

Now the Israeli defense minister estimates their breakout time to be "a few weeks." https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-706906  The threat is worse than the pre-deal days.

Strangely, some conclude, somehow, that the Iran Deal brought Iran CLOSER to a bomb. Somehow.