The first question to ask about any free agent.

[fredtoast]

Why is he a free agent?

[Shake n Blake]

Marvin Jones, George Iloka, Reggie Nelson and Mo Sanu are all about to be free agents.

Why? I'm sure the Bengals would love to have them back. They're not cancers, they're not overly injury prone for the most part.

Teams often just can't afford all their good players once their affordable rookie contracts are up.

[rob]

(02-15-2016, 04:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Why is he a free agent?

because this is a business and their contract is up. that's like asking why aren't the people who built my house arent still here today, 8 years later. because their contract was up and they needed to move on. im sure they woulda loved to stick around, but their work here, was done.

[fredtoast]

(02-15-2016, 04:36 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Marvin Jones, George Iloka, Reggie Nelson and Mo Sanu are all about to be free agents.

Actually I don't think there is any way possible all those guys become free agents.

[fredtoast]

(02-15-2016, 04:38 PM)rob Wrote: because this is a business and their contract is up. that's like asking why aren't the people who built my house arent still here today, 8 years later. because their contract was up and they needed to move on. im sure they woulda loved to stick around, but their work here, was done.

Except every team wants to keep their best players and actually resign more players than they let become free agents.

That is why you need to ask the questions.  Why did his team chose to pay to keep some other player instead of him.

[SunsetBengal]

(02-15-2016, 04:43 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Except every team wants to keep their best players and actually resign more players than they let become free agents.

That is why you need to ask the questions.  Why did his team chose to pay to keep some other player instead of him.

I would say that part of the time, it is simple economics.  And at other times, maybe the team feels like they could get the same or better talent/production at a cheaper price than what that player sees their individual value as.  And, at other times, there could be some "hidden" flaws in that player, such as bad personality, malcontent, etc., that another team would not notice until he was in their locker room.

[ItsOdellThurman]

...this is a dumb question. I get the preface, but you can't front market value sign every player just so they don't hit FA's. Maybe 6-10 guys, you can. The rest, you have to be confident enough that if the market value and fit isn't right, you can replace them. As others said, I doubt every pending FA we have actually hits the market, but in a few cases, they SHOULD. The Bengals wouldn't be doing their due diligence if they just signed everyone to what they demanded.

[fredtoast]

Let me back up and make it clear that I am not saying all free agents are flawed. There are certainly valid reasons for a team to let a player become a free agent. It could be the emergence of a younger cheaper player that can step up and take his place. It could be there has been a coaching change and the player doesn't fit a new system. Or it could be the players decision like a #2 WR who wants to be a #1.

But it is a very important question to ask. In fact I got this from a GM interview. I would have cited him if I could have remembered his name.

[ItsOdellThurman]

It also depends on the way the franchise is run. The Bengals? The Bengals have a history of taking their great and/or elite players and signing them before they approach FA.

A.J. Green
Andy Dalton
Carlos Dunlap
Geno Atkins

[Shake n Blake]

(02-15-2016, 05:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Let me back up and make it clear that I am not saying all free agents are flawed.  There are certainly valid reasons for a team to let a player become a free agent.  It could be the emergence of a younger cheaper player that can step up and take his place.  It could be there has been a coaching change and the player doesn't fit a new system.  Or it could be the players decision like a #2 WR who wants to be a #1.

But it is a very important question to ask.  In fact I got this from a GM interview.  I would have cited him if I could have remembered his name.

Gotcha. That's exactly where I thought you were going with this. 

It's a fair question to ask, and I always think about why a player is a FA if I want the Bengals to sign him. It could be any multitude of reasons. Sometimes it's a negative (bad locker room guy, wants too much money, old/lack of talent, injuries, etc), or it could be that the team just can't afford the player, he wants a change of scenery, to play in a certain location, play for a contender, etc).

[*Nately120*]

Never testing free agency is like marrying your high school sweetheart; sometimes it's the right decision, but you might be missing out on some sweet, sweet kink if you don't look around.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-15-2016, 05:27 PM)ItsOdellThurman Wrote: It also depends on the way the franchise is run.  The Bengals?  The Bengals have a history of taking their great and/or elite players and signing them before they approach FA.

A.J. Green
Andy Dalton
Carlos Dunlap
Geno Atkins

Which worked great when the Bengals didn't have any other elite players already under contract.

Some teams simply have more great players than the salary cap allows them to pay. The Seahawks and Broncos are both very good examples of that. It's kind of the point of the salary cap.

The Bengals don't have to worry about that with their recent drafting of Kirkpatrick, Hunt, Still, Thompson, Clarke, etc.

[fredtoast]

(02-15-2016, 05:52 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The Bengals don't have to worry about that with their recent drafting of Kirkpatrick, Hunt, Still, Thompson, Clarke, etc.

Actually iy is more about how the players are acquired and paid than drafting skill.

The Broncos didn't drafy the players that are putting them over the cap.  They signed them as free agents.

[*wildcats forever*]

I have to believe when a player chooses to test free agency, it's either money (like TJ Housh.) or a confidence issue (like Carson) with the team he's thinking about leaving. Teams letting players go boils down to declining performance tied in with cap hit, or just not wanting/being able to afford paying top dollar. Then there are the locker room cancer guys, who might be a good talent but not worth the trouble they cause.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(02-15-2016, 06:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Actually iy is more about how the players are acquired and paid than drafting skill.

The Broncos didn't drafy the players that are putting them over the cap.  They signed them as free agents.

Pretty positive you're vastly underestimating Denver's drafted talent, just because they have also added FAs.


Recently signed drafted talent...

Derek Wolfe (4yr/$36.7m)
Demaryius Thomas (5yr/$70m)
Ryan Clady (5yr/$52.5m)
Chris Harris (5yr/$42.5m)
($42.175m/yr)


FA (drafted players only)....

Von Miller
Malik Jackson
Danny Travathen
CJ Anderson (RFA)
Brock Osweiller

Von Miller will likely get the exclusive franchise tag for ~$14m, and would cost probably $16-17m/yr on the open market.
CJ Anderson's tender will probably be $3.5m or so.
Malik Jackson will probably be $7-8m/yr
Danny Travathen will be around $9m/yr
Brock Osweiller.. I don't know if people will get desperate. Maybe $9m/yr?
(Roughly $42.5m-ish in 2016?)


Either way, you're at around $85-ish million for 9 of your 53 players. Just from looking at people they drafted. Not counting the people they have added in FA, and all that. Winning a SB and being in 2 in 3 years is expensive.

[BoomerFan]

Some FAs aren't worth what they're going to be paid. OTOH, some don't fit a scheme or at least the chemistry on a team. Then too, sometimes a change of venue seems to make a player more serious or re-commit themselves. Sometimes.

It really does seem like whether you go through FA or the draft, most players aren't going to be real contributor's in their first year though. So plan accordingly.

Maybe you have enough offensive weapons that losing Marvin Jones is OK while a draftee takes a year or two finding their stride (then again, there have been some pretty impressive rookie Wide Receivers in the recent few years). Safety might be another spot where we could lose a player though losing both Iloka and Nelson would worry me, even if draft a Safety high. We've already got our guys at OT to replace Andre Smith. Cornerback as well -- though losing both Hall and Jones would make us thin at the position. As for our front 7, there is nobody who we could lose this year who I would really hurt you (which isn't to say Vince and Emmanuel won't get re-signed as long as the price is right).

[Gohards]

(02-15-2016, 04:43 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Except every team wants to keep their best players and actually resign more players than they let become free agents.

That is why you need to ask the questions.  Why did his team chose to pay to keep some other player instead of him.

Not true. When manning was released from the colts in 2012 or 2013, he was their best player. Ended up a free agent

[fredtoast]

(02-15-2016, 07:44 PM)Gohards Wrote: Not true. When manning was released from the colts in 2012 or 2013, he was their best player. Ended up a free agent

Manning did not attempt a single pass for the Colts in '11.

[Millhouse]

I keep asking that about Josh Brown when the Bengals kept Nuge instead.

[Gohards]

(02-15-2016, 07:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Manning did not attempt a single pass for the Colts in '11.

I understand that, but he was still their best player. The dude is arguably the best qb to ever live. He broke the single season TD record in 2013. I think its safe to say he was their best player