United States Immigration

[BmorePat87]

I figured instead of another thread that some may interpret as an attack on Trump, I'd start a general immigration thread. Trump has promised to address immigration this week. He pushed that back to "within the next 2 weeks" and said it will be "soften" but the wall will be built. He said, no amnesty but we'll work with them because we have some "really great people".

Thoughts on what this could look like?

Will a shift on immigration hurt him? Will it help?

Is Ted Cruz right in warning that Trump will not hold strong on his promises?


Edit: Please contribute thoughts on other candidates too. Unfortunately, Hillary seems to have just turtled in and is playing it safe for the next 2.5 months, letting Trump say things and just having everyone forget they can question her too. Not a lot coming from her.

[BmorePat87]

Initial thoughts, I think Trump hurts himself with this. I'm not sure he's going to come out ahead of this trade off. If he comes off too soft, he might disillusion his supporters who like how strong he has come down on immigration. If he isn't soft enough, he won't win many new voters over. I think he needs to focus on getting those who believe the country is headed radically in the wrong direction and hope that he can get more conservatives into the voting booth, more so than Hillary is inspiring liberals to vote.

[*bfine32*]

I've heard Trump has more support from the Latino community than the last 2 GOP candidates combined. As to the softened view: It's not like his supporters are going to abandon him; where are they going to go?

[BmorePat87]

(08-24-2016, 11:53 PM)bfine32 Wrote: I've heard Trump has more support from the Latino community than the last 2 GOP candidates combined. As to the softened view: It's not like his supporters are going to abandon him; where are they going to go?

The latest NBC poll has him at 22% with Latinos. Romney had 27%, McCain 31%, and Bush 44% (2004) and 35% (2000). 

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-faces-hurdle-minority-voters-clinton-maintains-lead-poll-shows-n636061

[*bfine32*]

(08-25-2016, 12:10 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: The latest NBC poll has him at 22% with Latinos. Romney had 27%, McCain 31%, and Bush 44% (2004) and 35% (2000). 

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-faces-hurdle-minority-voters-clinton-maintains-lead-poll-shows-n636061

Must have heard wrong, but the question remains.

[xxlt]

(08-24-2016, 11:02 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I figured instead of another thread that some may interpret as an attack on Trump, I'd start a general immigration thread. Trump has promised to address immigration this week. He pushed that back to "within the next 2 weeks" and said it will be "soften" but the wall will be built. He said, no amnesty but we'll work with them because we have some "really great people".

Thoughts on what this could look like?

Will a shift on immigration hurt him? Will it help?

Is Ted Cruz right in warning that Trump will not hold strong on his promises?


Edit: Please contribute thoughts on other candidates too. Unfortunately, Hillary seems to have just turtled in and is playing it safe for the next 2.5 months, letting Trump say things and just having everyone forget they can question her too. Not a lot coming from her.

When James Carville ran Bill Clinton's first campaign for President he famously wore a t-shirt that said, "It's the economy, stupid." I think Hillary's campaign manager Robby Mook would be wise to do the same. I don't think illegal immigration, legal immigration, path to citizenship, green cards, visas, or any related topic is on the average American's top 10 list of things they care about. For many it probably doesn't crack the top 50. 

This is indicative of one of Trumps many problems. He is campaigning on an issue that most people simply don't care about. Sure, when he dog whistles or just comes out and denounces (fill in the blank - in this case those raping, job stealing Mexicans) the 14 morons who attend a rally will cheer and the Archie Bunkers at home will nod at their TV and say, "He says what I think," but the fact is these aren't thoughtful people and even if they are I guarantee they weren't thinking much about the Brown Horde teaming over the border before the Trumpeter brought it up an 30 seconds later they aren't thinking about it at all. They have agreed with themselves or their colleagues that, "Yeah buddy, ol' Trump gonna build it and make Mexico pay." This simply indicates their lack of sophistication and not that they have been clamoring for a wall for decades. 

So, Trump makes vague statements - and/or promises to make vague statements at some future date - about an issue of no significance and a few seals bark and slap their flippers. It is sad half of our political system has generated such a pathetic candidate, but I fail to see how him threatening to make more ambiguous remarks in the future about a non-issue would drive anyone to care about him or wonder about a reaction from the Clinton camp. 

So - what it will look like is exactly? What his campaign has looked like to date: a blowhard talking and saying nothing. Will it hurt him? Everything he says hurts him with rational people, and endears him to a certain cross section of Americans that is sadly much larger than I would like it to be. Is Ted Cruz... look, Ted Cruz is somehow a Senator, which may prove there is a God and that he/she has one sick and twisted sense of humor or a death wish for America. Otherwise, Ted Cruz lost - and badly - to Donald Trump. So, the opinions of Ted Cruz are about as relevant as those of the squirrels in your backyard. The man has no brain, no charm, and very limited political capital. 

[*michaelsean*]

If I were him, I'd keep up strong on keeping illegals out, but say you are all for making it easier for people to get here legally. Personally I'm all for having as many immigrants as we can handle, I just want them to come here the right way.

[GMDino]

(08-24-2016, 11:02 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I figured instead of another thread that some may interpret as an attack on Trump, I'd start a general immigration thread. Trump has promised to address immigration this week. He pushed that back to "within the next 2 weeks" and said it will be "soften" but the wall will be built. He said, no amnesty but we'll work with them because we have some "really great people".

Thoughts on what this could look like?

Will a shift on immigration hurt him? Will it help?

Is Ted Cruz right in warning that Trump will not hold strong on his promises?


Edit: Please contribute thoughts on other candidates too. Unfortunately, Hillary seems to have just turtled in and is playing it safe for the next 2.5 months, letting Trump say things and just having everyone forget they can question her too. Not a lot coming from her.

There's a core that will vote for Trump no matter what.

They don't like Clinton.  They don't like "libtards".  They chant "USA" any time someone says something bad about the US...even if it's true.

They also will believe that even if Trump changes his stance he "doesn't mean it" and is just doing it to get votes.

Trump has made so many different promises on the same subjects that he has to end up keeping one of his positions sooner or later.

[GMDino]

Here's is Clinton's:

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/immigration-reform/

• Introduce comprehensive immigration reform. Hillary will introduce comprehensive immigration reform with a pathway to full and equal citizenship within her first 100 days in office. It will treat every person with dignity, fix the family visa backlog, uphold the rule of law, protect our borders and national security, and bring millions of hardworking people into the formal economy.
• End the three- and 10-year bars. The three- and 10-year bars force families—especially those whose members have different citizenship or immigration statuses—into a heartbreaking dilemma: remain in the shadows, or pursue a green card by leaving the country and loved ones behind.
• Defend President Obama’s executive actions—known as DACA and DAPA—against partisan attacks. The Supreme Court’s deadlocked decision on DAPA was a heartbreaking reminder of how high the stakes are in this election. Hillary believes DAPA is squarely within the president’s authority and won’t stop fighting until we see it through. The estimated 5 million people eligible for DAPA—including DREAMers and parents of Americans and lawful residents—should be protected under the executive actions.
• Do everything possible under the law to protect families. If Congress keeps failing to act on comprehensive immigration reform, Hillary will enact a simple system for those with sympathetic cases—such as parents of DREAMers, those with a history of service and contribution to their communities, or those who experience extreme labor violations—to make their case and be eligible for deferred action.
• Enforce immigration laws humanely. Immigration enforcement must be humane, targeted, and effective. Hillary will focus resources on detaining and deporting those individuals who pose a violent threat to public safety, and ensure refugees who seek asylum in the U.S. have a fair chance to tell their stories.
• End family detention and close private immigration detention centers. Hillary will end family detention for parents and children who arrive at our border in desperate situations and close private immigrant detention centers.
• Expand access to affordable health care to all families. We should let families—regardless of immigration status—buy into the Affordable Care Act exchanges. Families who want to purchase health insurance should be able to do so.
• Promote naturalization. Hillary will work to expand fee waivers to alleviate naturalization costs, increase access to language programs to encourage English proficiency, and increase outreach and education to help more people navigate the process.
  

[GMDino]

And here is Trump's.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/immigration-reform

Quote:IMMIGRATION REFORM THAT WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

The three core principles of Donald J. Trump's immigration plan
When politicians talk about “immigration reform” they mean: amnesty, cheap labor and open borders. The Schumer-Rubio immigration bill was nothing more than a giveaway to the corporate patrons who run both parties.
Real immigration reform puts the needs of working people first – not wealthy globetrotting donors. We are the only country in the world whose immigration system puts the needs of other nations ahead of our own. That must change. Here are the three core principles of real immigration reform:

1. A nation without borders is not a nation. There must be a wall across the southern border.

2. A nation without laws is not a nation. Laws passed in accordance with our Constitutional system of government must be enforced.

3. A nation that does not serve its own citizens is not a nation. Any immigration plan must improve jobs, wages and security for all Americans.
Make Mexico Pay For The Wall
For many years, Mexico’s leaders have been taking advantage of the United States by using illegal immigration to export the crime and poverty in their own country (as well as in other Latin American countries). They have even published pamphletson how to illegally immigrate to the United States. The costs for the United States have been extraordinary: U.S. taxpayers have been asked to pick up hundreds of billions in healthcare costs, housing costs, education costs, welfare costs, etc. Indeed, the annual cost of free tax credits alone paid to illegal immigrants quadrupled to $4.2 billion in 2011. The effects on jobseekers have also been disastrous, and black Americans have been particularly harmed.

The impact in terms of crime has been tragic. In recent weeks, the headlines have been covered with cases of criminals who crossed our border illegally only to go on to commit horrific crimes against Americans. Most recently, an illegal immigrant from Mexico, with a long arrest record, is charged with breaking into a 64 year-old woman’s home, crushing her skull and eye sockets with a hammer, raping her, and murdering her. The Police Chief in Santa Maria says the “blood trail” leads straight to Washington.

In 2011, the Government Accountability Office found that there were a shocking 3 million arrests attached to the incarcerated alien population, including tens of thousands of violent beatings, rapes and murders.

Meanwhile, Mexico continues to make billions on not only our bad trade deals but also relies heavily on the billions of dollars in remittances sent from illegal immigrants in the United States back to Mexico ($22 billion in 2013 alone).

In short, the Mexican government has taken the United States to the cleaners. They are responsible for this problem, and they must help pay to clean it up.

The cost of building a permanent border wall pales mightily in comparison to what American taxpayers spend every single year on dealing with the fallout of illegal immigration on their communities, schools and unemployment offices.

Mexico must pay for the wall and, until they do, the United States will, among other things: impound all remittance payments derived from illegal wages; increase fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexican CEOs and diplomats (and if necessary cancel them); increase fees on all border crossing cards – of which we issue about 1 million to Mexican nationals each year (a major source of visa overstays); increase fees on all NAFTA worker visas from Mexico (another major source of overstays); and increase fees at ports of entry to the United States from Mexico [Tariffs and foreign aid cuts are also options].  We will not be taken advantage of anymore.

Defend The Laws And Constitution Of The United States
America will only be great as long as America remains a nation of laws that lives according to the Constitution. No one is above the law. The following steps will return to the American people the safety of their laws, which politicians have stolen from them:

Triple the number of ICE officers. As the President of the ICE Officers’ Council explained in Congressional testimony: “Only approximately 5,000 officers and agents within ICE perform the lion’s share of ICE’s immigration mission…Compare that to the Los Angeles Police Department at approximately 10,000 officers. Approximately 5,000 officers in ICE cover 50 states, Puerto Rico and Guam, and are attempting to enforce immigration law against 11 million illegal aliens already in the interior of the United States. Since 9-11, the U.S. Border Patrol has tripled in size, while ICE’s immigration enforcement arm, Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO), has remained at relatively the same size.” This will be funded by accepting the recommendation of the Inspector General for Tax Administration and eliminating tax credit payments to illegal immigrants.

Nationwide e-verify. This simple measure will protect jobs for unemployed Americans.

Mandatory return of all criminal aliens. The Obama Administration has released 76,000 aliens from its custody with criminal convictions since 2013 alone. All criminal aliens must be returned to their home countries, a process which can be aided by canceling any visas to foreign countries which will not accept their own criminals, and making it a separate and additional crime to commit an offense while here illegally.

Detention—not catch-and-release. Illegal aliens apprehended crossing the border must be detained until they are sent home, no more catch-and-release.

Defund sanctuary cities. Cut-off federal grants to any city which refuses to cooperate with federal law enforcement.

Enhanced penalties for overstaying a visa. Millions of people come to the United States on temporary visas but refuse to leave, without consequence. This is a threat to national security. Individuals who refuse to leave at the time their visa expires should be subject to criminal penalties; this will also help give local jurisdictions the power to hold visa overstays until federal authorities arrive. Completion of a visa tracking system – required by law but blocked by lobbyists – will be necessary as well.

Cooperate with local gang task forces. ICE officers should accompany local police departments conducting raids of violent street gangs like MS-13 and the 18th street gang, which have terrorized the country. All illegal aliens in gangs should be apprehended and deported. Again, quoting Chris Crane: “ICE Officers and Agents are forced to apply the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) Directive, not to children in schools, but to adult inmates in jails. If an illegal-alien inmate simply claims eligibility, ICE is forced to release the alien back into the community. This includes serious criminals who have committed felonies, who have assaulted officers, and who prey on children…ICE officers should be required to place detainers on every illegal alien they encounter in jails and prisons, since these aliens not only violated immigration laws, but then went on to engage in activities that led to their arrest by police; ICE officers should be required to issue Notices to Appear to all illegal aliens with criminal convictions, DUI convictions, or a gang affiliation; ICE should be working with any state or local drug or gang task force that asks for such assistance.”

End birthright citizenship. This remains the biggest magnet for illegal immigration. By a 2:1 margin, voters say it’s the wrong policy, including Harry Reid who said “no sane country” would give automatic citizenship to the children of illegal immigrants.

1) Please note that I do not know why he stopped numbering them after 3.

2) The biggest and longest entry is making Mexico pay for the wall.

3) End birthright citizenship seems to be in opposition to Defend The Laws And Constitution Of The United States

[*michaelsean*]

(08-25-2016, 09:11 AM)GMDino Wrote: Here's is Clinton's:

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/immigration-reform/

• Introduce comprehensive immigration reform. Hillary will introduce comprehensive immigration reform with a pathway to full and equal citizenship within her first 100 days in office. It will treat every person with dignity, fix the family visa backlog, uphold the rule of law, protect our borders and national security, and bring millions of hardworking people into the formal economy.
• End the three- and 10-year bars. The three- and 10-year bars force families—especially those whose members have different citizenship or immigration statuses—into a heartbreaking dilemma: remain in the shadows, or pursue a green card by leaving the country and loved ones behind.
• Defend President Obama’s executive actions—known as DACA and DAPA—against partisan attacks. The Supreme Court’s deadlocked decision on DAPA was a heartbreaking reminder of how high the stakes are in this election. Hillary believes DAPA is squarely within the president’s authority and won’t stop fighting until we see it through. The estimated 5 million people eligible for DAPA—including DREAMers and parents of Americans and lawful residents—should be protected under the executive actions.
• Do everything possible under the law to protect families. If Congress keeps failing to act on comprehensive immigration reform, Hillary will enact a simple system for those with sympathetic cases—such as parents of DREAMers, those with a history of service and contribution to their communities, or those who experience extreme labor violations—to make their case and be eligible for deferred action.
• Enforce immigration laws humanely. Immigration enforcement must be humane, targeted, and effective. Hillary will focus resources on detaining and deporting those individuals who pose a violent threat to public safety, and ensure refugees who seek asylum in the U.S. have a fair chance to tell their stories.
• End family detention and close private immigration detention centers. Hillary will end family detention for parents and children who arrive at our border in desperate situations and close private immigrant detention centers.
• Expand access to affordable health care to all families. We should let families—regardless of immigration status—buy into the Affordable Care Act exchanges. Families who want to purchase health insurance should be able to do so.
• Promote naturalization. Hillary will work to expand fee waivers to alleviate naturalization costs, increase access to language programs to encourage English proficiency, and increase outreach and education to help more people navigate the process.
  

There's too many things where people intentionally did things that put themselves in their situation.  And absolutely no citizenship if you came here illegally unless you leave and enter the correct way.

[BmorePat87]

(08-25-2016, 09:15 AM)GMDino Wrote: And here is Trump's.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/immigration-reform



1) Please note that I do not know why he stopped numbering them after 3.

2) The biggest and longest entry is making Mexico pay for the wall.

3) End birthright citizenship seems to be in opposition to Defend The Laws And Constitution Of The United States

I know Mexico is paying for the wall... lol... ok, I'm good now, but will this suggestion of eliminating tax credits to illegal immigrants fund the estimated $400m needed a year to triple ICE? (Assuming they make an average of $40k with benefits). That doesn't account for the cost of housing them, holding a trial, and transporting them while in custody. Will it also cover the nearly $11.6 billion in taxes that illegals pay state and local governments a year or their contribution to payroll taxes that they do not collect on? Conservative estimates suggest illegal immigrants costs the tax payer over $100 billion a year. Opponents suggests this underestimates their contribution to the economy and in taxes. 

I just wonder if increasing our costs will actually be recouped. Is there an actual solution that saves us money? 

[*bfine32*]

(08-24-2016, 11:02 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I figured instead of another thread that some may interpret as an attack on Trump,

Why would anybody interpret this as that?

(08-25-2016, 09:28 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I know Mexico is paying for the wall... lol... ok, I'm good now, 

Some folks just cannot help themselves.

And the question remains: What voters are Trump going to lose if he softens on immigration?

[GMDino]

(08-25-2016, 09:28 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: I know Mexico is paying for the wall... lol... ok, I'm good now, but will this suggestion of eliminating tax credits to illegal immigrants fund the estimated $400m needed a year to triple ICE? (Assuming they make an average of $40k with benefits). That doesn't account for the cost of housing them, holding a trial, and transporting them while in custody. Will it also cover the nearly $11.6 billion in taxes that illegals pay state and local governments a year or their contribution to payroll taxes that they do not collect on? Conservative estimates suggest illegal immigrants costs the tax payer over $100 billion a year. Opponents suggests this underestimates their contribution to the economy and in taxes. 

I just wonder if increasing our costs will actually be recouped. Is there an actual solution that saves us money? 

Everything I've read (well 98%) has said none of Trump's tax plans make sense and will increase the debt dramatically so I can't imagine this would work either.

[Benton]

(08-25-2016, 08:59 AM)xxlt Wrote: When James Carville ran Bill Clinton's first campaign for President he famously wore a t-shirt that said, "It's the economy, stupid." I think Hillary's campaign manager Robby Mook would be wise to do the same. 



...

This is indicative of one of Trumps many problems. He is campaigning on an issue that most people simply don't care about. 

Yup.

This is going to end ugly for Trump if he stays with immigration as his focus, but Hillary switches to the economy and hammers him on outsourcing his own employees, and noting him saying wages are too high while bringing in cheap immigrant labor.

[xxlt]

(08-25-2016, 09:28 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Yeah right.  The entire middle class has just been lazy and stupid for the last 30 years.

Nothing wrong with a system that funnels all the economic gains to the top .05%

Fixed

[BmorePat87]

(08-25-2016, 09:39 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Why would anybody interpret this as that?

Because it mentions Trump. Some people have gotten defensive about Trump posts (don't worry, not singling you out). 

Quote:Some folks just cannot help themselves.


And the question remains: What voters are Trump going to lose if he softens on immigration?

If his most compelling stance is being hard on immigration and he abandons that, you lose the most compelling reason to get out and vote for him. I would equate it to Bernie suddenly saying "I'm going to soften up on Wall St, I'll work with them". 


Now my general question to all: Has Hillary said anything recently about immigration or is she just ignoring it. 

[*PhilHos*]

(08-25-2016, 09:15 AM)GMDino Wrote: 1) Please note that I do not know why he stopped numbering them after 3.

A quick re-reading and it seems that the 3 numbered items are the core beliefs around which his plans for immigration reform (the non-numbered items) are centered.

[GMDino]

(08-25-2016, 11:28 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Because it mentions Trump. Some people have gotten defensive about Trump posts (don't worry, not singling you out). 




If his most compelling stance is being hard on immigration and he abandons that, you lose the most compelling reason to get out and vote for him. I would equate it to Bernie suddenly saying "I'm going to soften up on Wall St, I'll work with them". 


Now my general question to all: Has Hillary said anything recently about immigration or is she just ignoring it. 

I did a Google News search for "Clinton on immigration" and it doesn't look like either candidate has talked about specifics much in the last month.  Most references to Clinton were either  fact checking what she already said or stories about Trump talking about her stand on it.  The rest of the Trump stories were him either wavering or saying he was going to speak on immigration or saying he was NOT going to speak on immigration.

[GMDino]

(08-25-2016, 11:43 AM)PhilHos Wrote: A quick re-reading and it seems that the 3 numbered items are the core beliefs around which his plans for immigration reform (the non-numbered items) are centered.

Fair enough.  Sometimes the OCD kicks in.