Where the Bengals Have Already Failed Joe Burrow

[CJD]

(05-07-2020, 01:22 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Great post, that is the thing, why didn't Bama win the Joe Moore award? As you note, way better O-line that was great at 
both run blocking and in pass protection. Agreed on the concern with Burrow maybe not being able to get away with making
NFL defenders look like he did in college. It is an entirely different level. He will have to learn to go down more and take the 
sack instead of trying to make something out of nothing I think, but who knows...

This is just another thing that makes Burrow special, imagine Burrow extending plays for us like the Pig did for all those years
for Pitt? Should be fun, just don't want to see Burrow get hurt in doing so.

Reading the evaluations of each of the finalists (of which Alabama is one), it looks like a huge portion of the evaluation is based on the offense's overall productivity.
https://joemooreaward.com/press-release/2019/12/10/joe-moore-award-announces-2019-finalists

LSU's section they basically don't mention the run game and focus entirely on total offense.

Quote:LSU Tigers (13-0)

• The Tigers lead FBS in total offense (554.3 total ypg).
• LSU is 3rd in FBS, averaging 7.79 yds/play (only trail Oklahoma and Alabama).
• 500+ yards of total offense in 9 of 12 games, including wins over four teams ranked in the AP Top 10 at the time (at Alabama and Texas, and vs Auburn and Florida).
• The Tigers had 481 total yds vs Georgia in SEC CG, 138 more than any other UGA opponent this year.
• LSU’s O-line led the way to the most productive offensive season in school history, establishing school records for points (621), points per game (47.8), total offense (7,207), passing yards (5,209), 50-point games (6), and games with at least 40 points (10).
  

Alabama's qualifications are slightly more attuned to the offensive line, discussing 5+ yard runs and sacks allowed, as well as general rushing efficiency.

Quote:Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)

• The Alabama offensive line, that has surrendered only 12 sacks in 381 pass attempts this season (just one every 31.8 pass attempts), ranks fifth nationally in fewest sacks allowed (1.0 per game). 
• The offensive front has opened holes and provided time for an Alabama offense, that ranks 2nd nationally in scoring (48.3 ppg), 3rd in passing (343.5 ypg) and 7th in total offense (513.3 ypg). 
• The ground game has also proven efficient with its top two running backs (Najee Harris and Brian Robinson Jr.) accounting for 5.5 yards per rush (1,513 yards and 16 touchdowns), with Harris ranking 31st nationally at 5.9 ypc.
• According to Championship Analytics (CAI), Alabama is one of the nation’s top teams as it relates to five-plus-yard runs, leading the SEC and ranking sixth nationally with 45.4 percent of the team’s rushing attempts resulting in a gain of five or more yards.
  

Oregon's and Ohio State's are much more focused on the run game, which I think most people would agree has a higher correlation to Oline success than the passing game (if the Oline can't open holes, the run game will go nowhere. A passing game can work around a poor Oline with quick passes and skill players making plays in space).

Quote:Ohio State Buckeyes (13-0)

• Ohio State is fifth nationally in rushing and first in the Big Ten Conference at 272.2 yards per game.
• The offensive line has been the foundation of an offense that also ranks fifth nationally in passing efficiency and first in scoring at 48.7 points per game.
• Running back J.K. Dobbins is on the cusp of not only breaking Eddie George’s school record of 1,927 rushing yards in a season (J.K. has 1,829 yards and is just 99 yards from Eddie’s record), but he’s also seeking to become the first ever Buckeye to rush for 2,000 yards in a season.
• The line has paved the way for Dobbins to rush for these staggering totals against the nation’s top rush defenses this season: 172 yards vs. Michigan State’s No. 4 ranked rush defense; 163 yards vs. Wisconsin’s No. 1 ranked rush defense; 157 yards vs. Penn State’s No. 4 rush defense; 211 yards vs. Michigan’s No. 13 rush defense; and Saturday in the Big Ten title game, 172 yards against Wisconsin’s No. 7 ranked rush defense.
• Ohio State's offensive line unit totaled 339 Knockdowns in 13 games. 
  

Quote:Oregon Ducks (11-2)

• The Ducks lead the nation with 218 combined starts along the offensive line.
• Oregon rushed for 239 yards and three TDs against Utah’s No. 1 rush defense in the Pac-12 Championship game, highlighted by 154 yards in the second half and 117 in the fourth quarter.
• Oregon ranks sixth nationally with 5.73 yards per carry in the fourth quarter and 15th with 710 rushing yards.
• Oregon leads the Pac-12 in total rushing yards (1,368) in the second half.
• Oregon's running backs haven’t been stopped for negative yards over their last 88 carries out of the backfield.
• Seniors Shane Lemieux and Calvin Throckmorton have started 51 consecutive games.
• Oregon is one of eleven FBS teams with 30 passing TDs and 20 rushing TDs.
• Sewell and Throckmorton have played a combined 1,557 snaps at the tackle positions this season without allowing a sack and just three hits on the QB.
  

So, based on their qualifications, LSU would definitely win the award because they were the most productive offense overall in college football.

Seems a little stilted, but hey, whatever. The award doesn't really mean that much in the long term (Read: in the NFL) anyway. The best players will get drafted the highest and will have the most success in the NFL, irrespective of which unit they played with in college.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-07-2020, 01:35 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Reading the evaluations of each of the finalists (of which Alabama is one), it looks like a huge portion of the evaluation is based on the offense's overall productivity.
https://joemooreaward.com/press-release/2019/12/10/joe-moore-award-announces-2019-finalists

LSU's section they basically don't mention the run game and focus entirely on total offense.

Alabama's qualifications are slightly more attuned to the offensive line, discussing 5+ yard runs and sacks allowed, as well as general rushing efficiency.


Oregon's and Ohio State's are much more focused on the run game, which I think most people would agree has a higher correlation to Oline success than the passing game (if the Oline can't open holes, the run game will go nowhere. A passing game can work around a poor Oline with quick passes and skill players making plays in space).




So, based on their qualifications, LSU would definitely win the award because they were the most productive offense overall in college football.

Seems a little stilted, but hey, whatever. The award doesn't really mean that much in the long term (Read: in the NFL) anyway. The best players will get drafted the highest and will have the most success in the NFL, irrespective of which unit they played with in college.

Thought so, thanks CJD. Think they ought to take into account more of the blocking than the Offense as a whole myself.

Funny how they leave out the sacks for LSU and mention them with Bama, sounds like Fred lol

[Bengalholic]

(05-07-2020, 11:26 AM)fredtoast Wrote: LSU had three O-linemen who were either first or second team All-SEC.  Georgia only had two.

Alabama had a good O-line, but not as good as LSU's.

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/sp/overallol/2019

LSU was 64th in overall sack rate, 82nd in standard down sack rate, and 49th in passing down sack rate.

Alabama ranked 5th, 33rd and 2nd.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/468/p2

LSU ranked 86th in sacks allowed per game and 29th in TFL allowed per game.

Alabama ranked 3rd and 22nd.

[Bengalholic]

(05-07-2020, 11:14 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Yep

I don't have their actual rankings (fwiw) but their Oline were closer to middle of the road than the top tier unit Fred is trying to drag Burrow down  trying to make them out to be.

And consider what Joe did under pressure, which he was on a third of his passes. He had a higher QB rating under duress than 84 other QBs had with a clean pocket. That stat alone tells you that his ability to escape and create under pressure was able to mask a lot of the issues with that line in pass protection. 

[fredtoast]

(05-07-2020, 02:53 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: And consider what Joe did under pressure, which was quite often. He had a higher QB rating under duress than 84 other QBs had with a clean pocket. That stat alone tells you that his ability to escape and create under pressure was able to mask a lot of the issues with that line in pass protection. 

No it doesn't.

It is great that Burrow does well under pressure, but again you are comparing apples to oranges.  If Burrow was under pressure more because he held onto the ball longer then it has nothing to do with the O-line.  In fact it would make the o-line look worse instead of better.

[fredtoast]

(05-07-2020, 02:39 PM)Bengalholic Wrote:  

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/sp/overallol/2019

LSU was 64th in overall sack rate, 82nd in standard down sack rate, and 49th in passing down sack rate.

Alabama ranked 5th, 33rd and 2nd.

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/468/p2

LSU ranked 86th in sacks allowed per game and 29th in TFL allowed per game.

Alabama ranked 3rd and 22nd.

Thank goodness they had guys like D-1 O-line coaches voting on this award.  They are smart enough to realize that sack rates can be on the QB instead of the O-line.

[fredtoast]

(05-07-2020, 01:35 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: So, based on their qualifications, LSU would definitely win the award because they were the most productive offense overall in college football.

Seems a little stilted, but hey, whatever. 

(05-07-2020, 01:52 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Thought so, thanks CJD. Think they ought to take into account more of the blocking than the Offense as a whole myself.

Funny how they leave out the sacks for LSU and mention them with Bama, sounds like Fred lol

https://247sports.com/college/lsu/Article/College-Football-Joe-Moore-Award-LSU-OL-winner-2019-offensive-line-140841795/

“LSU showed a tone-setting attitude in both pass protection and in their run blocking that really caught the attention of the 200 plus member voting body that has collectively played and coached this position for well over 800 years.”

“The O-line position is extremely difficult to evaluate, especially when doing so for entire units with different offenses and styles of play,” said Cole Cubelic, Chairman of the Joe Moore Award voting committee. “That’s why we thoroughly go through each of the finalists’ season-long highlight reels and multiple back-to-back quarters of game film. The focus on the film study is the only way the voting body can properly and credibly evaluate the nuances of the award criteria that would otherwise be difficult to see.” 

[b]What Voters Said[/b]

"There is a tendency to hyper-focus on the rushing attacks and the run-blocking of these units, but LSU forced us to really alter our filters and do a deeper dive. They were solid against the run, but their ability to handle protection duties against SEC rushers with so many receivers out in routes was really impressive and one of the reasons QB Joe Burrow won the Heisman. It's not THE reason, but it's definitely one of them."


"It's incredible how often and how well they pass block in "empty" protection (no TE or RB help). There are plays all season, including the SEC Championship game where they are blocking 6, 7, 8, 10 seconds while Burrow looks to throw downfield. Great awareness in pass pro and often look for work and pick up delayed rushers."

"Passing as much as this offense did this year puts a unique strain on the group up front and boy did they respond. Sitting and watching these guys on film, the number of pass protection reps that I wrote down 'Teach Tape Worthy' next to in my notes was remarkable. Pass pro is definitely not passive for these guys."

[Bengalholic]

(05-07-2020, 03:03 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No it doesn't.

It is great that Burrow does well under pressure, but again you are comparing apples to oranges.  If Burrow was under pressure more because he held onto the ball longer then it has nothing to do with the O-line.  In fact it would make the o-line look worse instead of better.

Part of the reason Burrow had to hold the ball longer was because of all the pressure, forcing him to scramble and find a receiver while avoiding being sacked. Honest question...did you watch any LSU games this year? If you did, then you obviously saw what I'm talking about, and you saw it on a fairly regular basis...which is why I agreed completely with this PFF assessment:

'Burrow has not had an ideal scenario in regard to his pass-blocking unit – while it could be worse, it could certainly be better, as he has spent nearly 31% of his dropbacks under pressure.' 

[CJD]

(05-07-2020, 03:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: https://247sports.com/college/lsu/Article/College-Football-Joe-Moore-Award-LSU-OL-winner-2019-offensive-line-140841795/

“LSU showed a tone-setting attitude in both pass protection and in their run blocking that really caught the attention of the 200 plus member voting body that has collectively played and coached this position for well over 800 years.”

“The O-line position is extremely difficult to evaluate, especially when doing so for entire units with different offenses and styles of play,” said Cole Cubelic, Chairman of the Joe Moore Award voting committee. “That’s why we thoroughly go through each of the finalists’ season-long highlight reels and multiple back-to-back quarters of game film. The focus on the film study is the only way the voting body can properly and credibly evaluate the nuances of the award criteria that would otherwise be difficult to see.” 

[b]What Voters Said[/b]

"There is a tendency to hyper-focus on the rushing attacks and the run-blocking of these units, but LSU forced us to really alter our filters and do a deeper dive. They were solid against the run, but their ability to handle protection duties against SEC rushers with so many receivers out in routes was really impressive and one of the reasons QB Joe Burrow won the Heisman. It's not THE reason, but it's definitely one of them."


"It's incredible how often and how well they pass block in "empty" protection (no TE or RB help). There are plays all season, including the SEC Championship game where they are blocking 6, 7, 8, 10 seconds while Burrow looks to throw downfield. Great awareness in pass pro and often look for work and pick up delayed rushers."

"Passing as much as this offense did this year puts a unique strain on the group up front and boy did they respond. Sitting and watching these guys on film, the number of pass protection reps that I wrote down 'Teach Tape Worthy' next to in my notes was remarkable. Pass pro is definitely not passive for these guys."

These things were also said, yes.

But they listed the qualifications pretty clearly.

You're very defensive of this award that LSU's offensive line got. No one is saying they're a bad Oline.

[fredtoast]

(05-07-2020, 03:44 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Part of the reason Burrow had to hold the ball longer was because of all the pressure, forcing him to scramble and find a receiver while avoiding being sacked.

Re-read what you just wrote.  It makes no sense at all.  QB avoid the rush by getting rid of the ball quicker, not holding onto it longer.

(05-07-2020, 03:44 PM)Bengalholic Wrote:  Honest question...did you watch any LSU games this year? If you did, then you obviously saw what I'm talking about, and you saw it on a fairly regular basis..

Yes.  I am a huge SEC fan.  I watched LSU games this year and I did not see what you saw.  Neither did any of the current D-I O-line coaches, former players and coaches that voted for the Joe Moore Award.

(05-07-2020, 03:44 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: .which is why I agreed completely with this PFF assessment: 

The draft was further proof that PFF is a joke.  Where did their number one OT in both run blocking AND pass blocking get drafted?

[Bengalholic]

(05-07-2020, 04:06 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Re-read what you just wrote.  It makes no sense at all.  QB avoid the rush by getting rid of the ball quicker, not holding onto it longer.

Yes.  I am a huge SEC fan.  I watched LSU games this year and I did not see what you saw.  Neither did any of the current D-I O-line coaches, former players and coaches that voted for the Joe Moore Award.

Joe was under pressure on 31% of all his dropbacks, but you didn't see it? 

[McC]

Gee, another thread, like most all the rest, ends with Fred arguing alone with a dozen or two people, some of whom have provided clear and concise evidence of how wrong Fred is.

[GreenCornBengal]

I'm sure someone already mentioned this in this thread but does it really even matter how great their O-line was? Joe Burrows efficiency increased when he was under pressure and had to scramble...

So yes, his line was great, but even when they faltered, Joe did better. That's a testament to Joe independent of whatever line he has... right? Am I crazy on this one?

[McC]

(05-07-2020, 05:21 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I'm sure someone already mentioned this in this thread but does it really even matter how great their O-line was? Joe Burrows efficiency increased when he was under pressure and had to scramble...

So yes, his line was great, but even when they faltered, Joe did better. That's a testament to Joe independent of whatever line he has... right? Am I crazy on this one?

It's really simple to define the argument here.  Fred is not a fan of Joe Burrow and there are no lengths to which he won't go to try to prove it, even though no such proof really exists.  

If Fred had his way, Marvin would still be the coach, AD still the QB, Paul Alexander the OLine coach and Nate Livings would be playing G.

[fredtoast]

(05-07-2020, 04:22 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Joe was under pressure on 31% of all his dropbacks, but you didn't see it? 

I did not see it as a problem with the O-line.  It had more to do with him holding onto the ball to long.

I see you still don't understand this, since you have PFF go to their website and read the article posted there about how "QB pressures" are determined more by the QB than the O-line.

If you can't find it I will post the link.

[fredtoast]

(05-07-2020, 05:21 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote:  Joe Burrows efficiency increased when he was under pressure and had to scramble...

Link please? 

[fredtoast]

(05-07-2020, 05:25 PM)McC Wrote: It's really simple to define the argument here.  Fred is not a fan of Joe Burrow and there are no lengths to which he won't go to try to prove it, even though no such proof really exists.  

Link to me saying one bad thing about Joe Burrow in this discussion.

What is happening is that a cult is growing around Burrow.  Even though a huge number of experts claim LSU had the best O-line in college football the apostles insist all of them, along with the people who voted on the All-SEC team, and all the NFL scouts were wrong and that Joe's O-line was not very good.  For some strange reason only Bengal fans possess the ability to realize that it was all just Joe making them look better.

 

[CJD]

(05-07-2020, 04:06 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Re-read what you just wrote.  It makes no sense at all.  QB avoid the rush by getting rid of the ball quicker, not holding onto it longer.

Just so we're clear, you don't understand how a play like this:


would count as a longer drop back, despite being extreme pressure allowed by the Oline?

[GreenCornBengal]

(05-07-2020, 06:11 PM)fredtoast Wrote:

Link please? 

First link has passer efficiency for each college QB. Burrow at the top with 202.00

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8

Second link has a discussion on Burrow 'under pressure' and says the following. "When pressured, Burrow still completes 73.9 percent of his passes, a clip 9.5 percentage points better than any other player in the country and the top mark produced by any QB since at least 2011.4. He also has a 211.2 passer efficiency rating, the highest among qualified passers over that stretch, and has thrown 19 touchdowns, five clear of any other QB in a single season."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-burrow-the-most-efficient-college-qb-ever/

AKA, his passer efficiency rating is actually higher than his average when he is under pressure.

I couldn't find the original video where I saw this, but they said he was the only QB who had a passer efficiency rating increase when under pressure, other QBs saw declines. I can't unfortunately find that video.

[Bengalholic]

(05-07-2020, 06:36 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Just so we're clear, you don't understand how a play like this:


would count as a longer drop back, despite being extreme pressure allowed by the Oline?

Yeah, it's shouldn't be difficult to grasp the concept that the QB sometimes has to hold onto the ball longer due to nearly immediate pressure disrupting the play...forcing him to scramble, improvise and take longer to throw than planned.