(04-12-2021, 02:46 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: I’m guessing no team has ever won a Super Bowl with a top 5 TE either, but I would never let that stop me from drafting Pitts. Looking at history, trends, etc is interesting (and maybe even somewhat useful) but at the end of the day I think you need to compare these prospects to each other, and take the one you feel has the most value, and is going to make the biggest impact. That’s what I want with a top 5 pick. Not the safest, or who fills the most immediate need. If they think that’s Sewell, then great. Pull the trigger. Literally no one would be able to knock that pick. I just think it’s a lot tougher of choice than some are making it out to be. I’ve said it multiple times now, but I don’t envy Tobin one bit having to make this choice.

I do think interviews are going to be important if they have them all similarly ranked on their board. I know Chase is supposed to be an even better kid than he is a football player from everything I’ve heard about him. And Sewell’s coach made some pretty flattering comments about him recently. The guy I know the least about is Pitts, but I certainly haven’t heard anything on the negative side.

(04-12-2021, 02:54 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: 1961 Mike Ditka by the Bears picked 5th and yes he did win a Championship with Da Bears

(04-12-2021, 03:06 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: That was as a coach though. Wasn’t his only championship as a player in Dallas?

(04-11-2021, 12:33 AM)ezekiel23 Wrote: Have never known a TE to go in the top 5 of the NFL draft.Also have never seen a TE hyped as much as Pitts,,,,,,,ever.Maybe he deserves it.But I’m all in on Chase.Although I wouldn’t be disappointed if they take Pitts at 5.

(04-12-2021, 08:13 AM)bengalsboy Wrote: You must not be very old.Kellen Winslow sr. went in the top 5 back in 1979.I believe he was the 2nd pick in the draft by the Chargers, after Ohio State LB Tom Cousineau.The Bengals had the 3rd pick,and took Washington State qb Jack "The throwin Samoan"  Thompson.Cousinaeu signed with a CFL team rather than play for the Bills.Winslow became a hall of fame TE,and Thompson was a bust.

(04-12-2021, 11:30 AM)CoachGeorge Wrote: You must be too old and that Dementia is setting in. .  Winslow wasn’t even a top 10 pick.  No TE has ever gone in the top 4 like Pitts possibly may.  Though I still doubt it.  He has a skill set never seen before.  Some team is going to be very fortunate to have his services though most certainly not the Bengals.

(04-12-2021, 12:24 PM)impactplaya Wrote: The Bengals have the worst TE group in the NFL. 

(04-12-2021, 12:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No they don't.  Not even close.

Even with our #1 TE out for most of the year our TEs outproduced multiple other TE corps from other NFL teams.

And our #2 TE had the 6th highest separation among all receivers in the league last test including WRs.

(04-12-2021, 12:44 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Good morning Fred. 
The Bengals have the worst TE grouping in.the NFL.
Its the worst in.the AFC North. 

(04-12-2021, 12:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Even with our #1 TE out for most of the year our TEs outproduced multiple other TE corps from other NFL teams.

(04-12-2021, 12:47 PM)sandwedge Wrote: How so?

(04-12-2021, 01:57 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Chase will be phenomenal.

That isn't what I meant by waste the pick. I meant this, do you want a Championship team or a phenomenal player?

Calvin Johnson was viewed as a can't miss freak of nature when the Lions drafted him top 5 in 2007

In his career with Detroit he had 2 playoff appearances. 0 wins 2 losses. 2011 loss - 12 rec 211 yards 2 TDs. Still lost.

No top 5 drafted WR has won a Super Bowl since 2000 (that's as far back as I looked) for the team that drafted him. The exception, Sammy Watkins as a 3rd receiver option on the Chiefs, years after he was drafted by the Bills and then went to the Rams, then Chiefs.


Here they all are: 

1st round WR's drafted in the top 5:

Charles Rogers - 2003 - 0 playoffs

Andre Johnson - 2003 - 2 Playoff appearances. 2 wins 2 losses. Both wins, against Cincinnati

Larry Fitzgerald - 2004 - 4 play appearances. 1 Super Bowl appearance, 5 wins 4 losses

Braylon Edwards - 2005 - 0 playoffs

Calvin Johnson - 2007 - 2 playoffs - 0 wins 2 losses. 2011 loss - 12 rec 211 yards 2 TDs. Still lost.

A.J. Green - 2011 - 4 playoffs - 0 wins 4 losses

Justin Blackmon - 2012 - 0 playoffs

Sammy Watkins - 2014 - 0 Playoffs for the Bills who drafted him. 1 with the Rams, 3 with KC. 1 Super Bowl win with KC.

Amari Cooper - 2015 - 1 playoff for Oakland, 0 wins 1 loss. With Dallas, 1 playoff, 1 win 1 loss.

Corey Davis - 2017 - 3 playoff appearances, 3 wins 3 loss. 


So, here is the trend I see from all this, and why I call it wasting a pick. Not because Chase isn't special, but look at the good teams, 1 WR taken in round one in 20 years!!??!!? Dude that speaks volume.

In that same time frame no Super Bowl wins for the guys taken top 5 as WRs. The best production was Larry Fitzgerald and people still talk about how he's wasting away in Arizona. 

These are obvious trends. And you think the Bengals will magically break this trend??? They aren't that well run of a franchise to break a trend. Already tried, took A.J. at 4... no playoff wins.

To me, I don't care about the "phenom" out there putting up big numbers here and there. I want to see a damn Super Bowl title in my lifetime. So yes, based on the information above, I think taking a WR at 5, is wasting the pick. 

Again, I'm not shitting on Chase, he will more then likely be a very good WR (I say more then likely cause anyone can bust even Sewell) but history shows you, this isn't where you get your WR if you want a Championship.

(04-12-2021, 02:12 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I'll double check, but I made it back to the 70's without a Top 5 WR being winning a Super Bowl with the team that drafted him.

That's scary.

Give me a few, I'll see what the top 5 for QBs and OT's looks like.


Edit:

Already found 2 OT's taken top 5 who won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted them.

Lane Johnson with the Eagles

Eric Fisher with the Chiefs

And I have 7 more drafts to check.

(04-10-2021, 02:27 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Somewhere among the pages of this thread there is opinions from Munoz, Jeff Saturday and Willie Anderson about drafting Sewell. Everyone said, of course the O-line guys want O-line.

Well, wanted to toss this out here:

Former Bengal WR saying take Sewell. If not Sewell, Pitts. Smart man.

"Protect ? Your ? Quarterback ?" - @Hawk#Bengals #NFLDraft #TeamSewell pic.twitter.com/5AQ8jfMhcr

— Future MVP Joe Burrow (@FauxJeaux) April 9, 2021

(04-12-2021, 12:52 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The battle rages on.

And still nothing is changing.

My last thoughts on this. If you want to succeed, you should model yourself after successful franchises. Which team has won the AFC North most in the last say 20 years?

Since 2000, the Steelers have won the division 10 times.
Since 2000, the Steelers have made the playoffs, 13 times.
Since 2000, the Steelers have drafted 1 WR in the first round. (2006, Santonio Holmes)

Think about how many years they've had WR's that our DBs just can't cover. And only 1, was from the 1st round.

Don't waste the pick. Be smart, model yourself off of successful franchises, or waste the pick and we can continue to finish 3rd or 4th in the division.


Quick Edit:

Just for fun and just to use a team people may hate less, I went and looked at Green Bay since we all like the Green Bay fan that stops by.

Since 2000, they also have used only 1 1st round pick on a WR, and that was 2002 (Javon Walker).


For us, if we take Chase, it will be 3 in 10 years. Green in 2011, Ross in 2017, Chase in 2021. 3 times as many in half the years. Not a plan for success.

(04-12-2021, 01:58 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Several years ago, RoyalRedLegs/Berserker and I were questioning whether we should resign AJ Green for exactly this reason. The elite big name WRs rarely win it all. Top WRs cost nearly as much as QBs...but if you have a top QB, you really don't need a Megatron caliber WR.

Finding a top QB, surrounding him with good - not necessarily elite - weapons, and using the rest of your money to fill out the line and defense seems to be the way teams have generally won titles.

This is exactly why I want Sewell over Chase. I view Burrow as an elite QB in the making. Our WRs are adequate and just need an infusion of speed. So now I just want to build up our o-line and defense.

Also consider how much cap you'd have to use to retain an elite QB and an elite WR. You'd be spending 1/3rd of your total cap on the pass game alone, and that's not even including o-line.

So elite QBs are important not only for their play on the field, but the freedom they give you to not spend big on a WR, which allows you to allocate money elsewhere.