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Economy under Trump - Belsnickel - 12-11-2017 I want to preface this by saying that I am not someone that thinks the POTUS has much of anything to do with the economy. Yes, fiscal and monetary policy play a role, however, there are many other factors that make the direct actions by any POTUS only a small cog in a vast machine. This opinion piece I saw over the weekend and some recent discussions on here have made me think about these specific deals that Trump has supposedly made. What is interesting about this is that some will say that there was some magic switch when Trump was elected that made the economy go gangbusters. Immediate turnaround. The interesting thing about this is that 2016 saw more jobs added per month than 2017 has seen. The unemployment rate has not decreased at a quicker rate than it did under Obama, which is what these supposed deals have been all about: keeping jobs in the US/moving them back here. The GDP growth has been better than last year, but there haven't been any policies enacted that would have an impact on this in any way. I'm not providing specific numbers for any of this, but it's all on the BLS and BEA websites if you feel like looking. A Quinnipiac poll in November also saw that 50% of people say Obama is responsible for the current economic state. This is a decrease than previous months, which is to be expected as we move away from inauguration. What is interesting is the views of the economy when seen in partisan terms. I always find it interesting how people have a skewed perception of the economy based on who is in office. I digress. So anyway, I was curious how you feel. I'll use the questions from the Q poll: Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Who do you believe is more responsible for the current state of the economy: former President Obama or President Trump? RE: Economy under Trump - GMDino - 12-11-2017 (12-11-2017, 11:59 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: I want to preface this by saying that I am not someone that thinks the POTUS has much of anything to do with the economy. Yes, fiscal and monetary policy play a role, however, there are many other factors that make the direct actions by any POTUS only a small cog in a vast machine. This opinion piece I saw over the weekend and some recent discussions on here have made me think about these specific deals that Trump has supposedly made. I think the economy is just a matter of time. Obama's time in office saw it go from bad to better. If Trump's people want to say it's all because he was elected then Obama would get credit for just being in office while the economy got better. But this is just the MO of Trump all his life. He just has people (Sanders) to say it for him so he really CAN say "Some people say..." and he's correct. I just read an article about what Sanders said and it had all the facts and whatnot but I can't find it here, so I'll share this one instead. https://secure.marketwatch.com/story/its-neither-obamas-nor-trumps-economy-2017-12-11?mod=MW_story_latest_news Quote:Opinion: It’s neither Obama’s nor Trump’s economy RE: Economy under Trump - Belsnickel - 12-11-2017 (12-11-2017, 12:13 PM)GMDino Wrote: I think the economy is just a matter of time. A lot of that is definitely true. Fed policies play a big role, bigger than most policies that come out of the White House directly. Those policies tend to make up quite a few cogs in the economic machine. RE: Economy under Trump - GMDino - 12-11-2017 (12-11-2017, 12:17 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: A lot of that is definitely true. Fed policies play a big role, bigger than most policies that come out of the White House directly. Those policies tend to make up quite a few cogs in the economic machine. And things like the new lob numbers? Well they are actually BELOW the numbers from last year at this time (as an average monthly gain). If we are suppose to be giving credit to the POTUS for creating jobs: The current admin is taking credit for all the jobs they are creating when they are creating less than the last guy did. It's a dumb game that is spouted out for the dumb people who want to believe it. RE: Economy under Trump - Belsnickel - 12-11-2017 (12-11-2017, 12:20 PM)GMDino Wrote: And things like the new lob numbers? Well they are actually BELOW the numbers from last year at this time (as an average monthly gain). Well, that's just about everything spouted by every politician. RE: Economy under Trump - Yojimbo - 12-11-2017 I don’t think the majority of the public feel that it’s a good economy because wages have stayed flat. So, while there are jobs being created, they aren’t high paying jobs. All the profits and gains since the recovery from 07/08 have gone to Wall Street. Looking like another bubble and crash coming soon. RE: Economy under Trump - GMDino - 12-11-2017 (12-11-2017, 12:29 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Well, that's just about everything spouted by every politician. No doubt. But have you ever seen quite this level of flat out lying? Not necessarily about the economy, but over all. I know we had a debate over whether to call what Trump says "lies" when he was elected, but what else can you call them? RE: Economy under Trump - Belsnickel - 12-11-2017 (12-11-2017, 01:19 PM)GMDino Wrote: No doubt. But have you ever seen quite this level of flat out lying? Not necessarily about the economy, but over all. I will couch it in these terms: I have never seen lying to this degree that could be so easily disproven. They are much more obvious about their lying. RE: Economy under Trump - GMDino - 12-11-2017 (12-11-2017, 01:26 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I will couch it in these terms: I have never seen lying to this degree that could be so easily disproven. They are much more obvious about their lying. Always the politician Matt! :smirk: I would add they are also doing it at a more rapid pace than any I can remember. Probably has something to do with social media but still... RE: Economy under Trump - Benton - 12-11-2017 (12-11-2017, 11:59 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: 1- Not so good. 2- Congress. And, I'd say it's going to get worse. I'm not a fiscal expert, but I think local jobs drive more income than big business jobs, at least in the last 30ish years. And policies that promote big business over small makes it hard for smaller businesses to compete, so they do less hiring and less buying. A guy with a machine shop in Toledo and 10 employees can't just get $10 million in state incentives to move his production to Mexico or automate it, instead he's got to make less revenue, hire fewer employees or raise costs that may make him uncompetitive. RE: Economy under Trump - Dill - 12-14-2017 (12-11-2017, 01:19 PM)GMDino Wrote: No doubt. But have you ever seen quite this level of flat out lying? Not necessarily about the economy, but over all. May depend upon how you define lie. I remember Nixon, but that was about mainly ONE lie with defensive variations--was Nixon a "crook" who ordered the Watergate break in or not? Did he erase portions of the White House tapes? Was he withholding evidence? Did he know what his "plumbers" did? etc. Then there was Johnson and Vietnam, though it was often hard to tell sometimes if Politicians and Generals were lying or heavily blinkered. There were lying about the Gulf of Tonkin, incident certainly. But both Nixon and Johnson told the truth about a lot of things--laid out rational policies and led their implementation past resistance--Medicare and the China opening, for example. In Trump's case, the lies fly daily about an ever widening range of topics. Some have a fantastic, wholly-made-up quality that I have never seen before--e.g., thousands of Muslims in NJ cheering at the fall of the twin towers, 3-5 million illegal voters. Some are routine to point of predictability, and stupid--no president has accomplished more in this time in office, no president had bigger numbers at his inauguration, no president touring the Middle East or Far East has ever received such acclaim. Others have at once a brutal and adolescent character--like claiming he didn't assault certain women because they were too ugly, or didn't really make fun of a disabled reporter. In can't think of instances in which Trump seems to level with the public about his policies, explain them rationally and in detail, argue effectively against people who also know them. We just hear they will be "great," are "the best." The tax cut will be a Christmas present to the American people. We don't see Trump personally fielding tough questions from the press the way a Nixon or Johnson could. (12-11-2017, 01:26 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I will couch it in these terms: I have never seen lying to this degree that could be so easily disproven. They are much more obvious about their lying. That is why the problem is not ultimately Trump, but his "base" of supporters and the Trump "defenders" who of course don't condone his actions but also don't see his inability to govern as harming anything more than liberal sensitivities. The former don't fully see through the lies, though they may partially. They like his pugnaciousness, and will respond favorably to a pugnacious lie even if they know it is a lie. The latter may see through most, but perhaps take the degree of good governance we have had for granted, and can't imagine how bad leadership, mistaken policies, and mismatches in cabinet personnel can really affect the economy or foreign policy to do lasting harm, certainly not massive harm. "Proof" can no longer make its way past whataboutism, false equivalence, and that rhetorical device born of the internet--listing alternative facts. RE: Economy under Trump - ballsofsteel - 12-14-2017 Woohoo, he economy is booming under Mr.Trump. How soon before I see an increase in my take home pay? Anyone? Bueller? |