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Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Dill - 07-17-2018

I am astonished this topic does not have its own thread.

Trump's pro-Putin comments have finally generated a problem beyond the resources of Fox/Hannity truthiness--at least for a few days.

Trump himself seems baffled and angered that so many supporters do not share his view of the "success" of his recent European tour. He strengthened NATO, right? And reset our relationship with Russia!

And the result is, finally, mass Republican opposition in Congress, public statements of condemnation, questions and criticism from Fox commentators. It's like, momentarily, the veil of mystification (which, in any case, only worked only on his supporters) has been ripped away.

https://nypost.com/2018/07/17/ryan-defends-mueller-probe-after-trumps-summit-with-putin/amp/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna892061
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-putin-summit-20180717-story,amp.html

Suddenly, recognition of poor planning and execution and ignorance is not just butthurt over Hillary's loss, but a real question about Trump's ability to guarantee national security.

I am guessing that over the next two days, the troops will start falling back into line, once they have made their views clear. They will feel they have set a limit on Trump, finally.  

Questions for discussion:

Does congressional condemnation indicate a permanent realignment of Congress' relation to the president, which Trump must henceforward take into account? Will individuals be more willing to speak out about other issues? People on the foreign relations and intel committees HAVE to be concerned (with the possible exception of Nunes).

Will this resistance and the public perception of failure endure speed up the downward spiral of Trump's behavior rather than correct it? (I think the former; He does not learn from errors and lashes out at friends as well as enemies. Why would that lessen rather than increase?)

What is the effect of Helsinki on foreign policy--e.g., combined with the erratic ill-treatment of our NATO allies? It has to be clear that the leader of the free world and the world's most powerful military and military alliance cannot adequately prioritize foreign policy issues or distinguish friends from enemies.  He called for a summit which embarrassed him and showed of Putin's skill at manipulation--and came away calling it a "victory."

Related to the previous question--what will be the effect on the EU and NATO. No papering it over anymore.  They have to be planning how to go it alone, or nearly alone, unable to count on US leadership and resources to the degree they used to. (I know Trump defenders want that; but outside that bubble, and outside Russia, China, and NK, that is generally bad thing)


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - GMDino - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 02:26 PM)Dill Wrote: I am astonished this topic does not have its own thread.

Trump's pro-Putin comments have finally generated a problem beyond the resources of Fox/Hannity truthiness--at least for a few days.

Trump himself seems baffled and angered that so many supporters do not share his view of the "success" of his recent European tour. He strengthened NATO, right? And reset our relationship with Russia!

And the result is, finally, mass Republican opposition in Congress, public statements of condemnation, questions and criticism from Fox commentators. It's like, momentarily, the veil of mystification (which, in any case, only worked only on his supporters) has been ripped away.

https://nypost.com/2018/07/17/ryan-defends-mueller-probe-after-trumps-summit-with-putin/amp/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna892061
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-putin-summit-20180717-story,amp.html

Suddenly, recognition of poor planning and execution and ignorance is not just butthurt over Hillary's loss, but a real question about Trump's ability to guarantee national security.

I just don't trust that the republicans in office will "do" anything though.  They will be "disappointed" in his comments.  They will say they don't "like" what he said.  Then they will support everything they can to get their agenda through.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Dill - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 02:35 PM)GMDino Wrote: I just don't trust that the republicans in office will "do" anything though.  They will be "disappointed" in his comments.  They will say they don't "like" what he said.  Then they will support everything they can to get their agenda through.

Well, they have done something in voicing their displeasure and with holding the praise for which Trump lives. And many have done more than express displeasure. They are using terms like "shameful," "weak," and "disgraceful." 

This loss of immediate support has to be especially disturbing to Trump, given the almost universal criticism of the summit--even from Israeli papers!

Remember that he was going to be a strong leader, show our weak politicians how real negotiation is done, didn't need to prepare.

I am guessing that as much as 15-20% of his base can see that he was Putin's ***** from the get go. That is significant, and it will free up more congressmen to criticize Trump. The other 80-85% likely still to see the importance of allying with Russia against "foes" like the EU. That "makes sense" since they are a world nuclear power etc.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Griever - 07-17-2018

nothing will happen

his base is beyond thinking for themselves, and will swallow whatever he feeds them


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - treee - 07-17-2018

I think the midterm elections (for the House in particular) will be a true referendum on how the US public feels about Trump representing the U.S. on the world stage. I'm pretty sure this worries a lot of R incumbents in purple states.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - jj22 - 07-17-2018

I've never seen Fox turn on Trump the way they did yesterday. It was significant. Now will it last? I don't know. But yesterday was noteworthy.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Dill - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 03:00 PM)treee Wrote: I think the midterm elections (for the House in particular) will be a true referendum on how the US public feels about Trump representing the U.S. on the world stage. I'm pretty sure this worries a lot of R incumbents in purple states.

I agree with you there. But do you think Helsinki will affect the public much? 

I find it interesting that so many Republicans have finally come out to criticize Trump--even from red states, and including the leaders of the Senate and House.

I am thinking that the fracture will be repaired over the next week, but it has made GOP resistance easier and damaged Trump's image among "weak supporters."


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - fredtoast - 07-17-2018

No damage to his base. They love this type of behavior.

I mean, Germany has a WOMAN running their country. We don't want to be on the same side with those p*ssies.

Putin is a strong man who knows how to get things done. We want to be on his side.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - CKwi88 - 07-17-2018

Yeah but how did it affect you personally? Can't really complain about it otherwise. Ninja


None of it matters. If someone wasn't convinced by now that Trump is way out of his league nothing will. Most people are pretty simple. They see an extra 50 bucks in their paycheck and a few extra dollars at tax time and they'll be convinced everything is hunky dory. The damage that Trump is doing to our country and its image aren't as visible a concern for some.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - treee - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 03:07 PM)Dill Wrote: I agree with you there. But do you think Helsinki will affect the public much? 

I find it interesting that so many Republicans have finally come out to criticize Trump--even from red states, and including the leaders of the Senate and House.

I am thinking that the fracture will be repaired over the next week, but it has made GOP resistance easier and damaged Trump's image among "weak supporters."

I think a lot of the "Gary Johnson" voters will be much more willing to court business friendly dems, as well as a lot of "weak Trump" voters not showing at all.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Arturo Bandini - 07-17-2018

Trust the genius from the stable !


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Benton - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 02:26 PM)Dill Wrote: Questions for discussion:

Does congressional condemnation indicate a permanent realignment of Congress' relation to the president, which Trump must henceforward take into account? 

At this point, it largely doesn't matter. There's a decent chance of midterm mashup (growing more in the left's favor every time Trump curtsey's to a foreign power). And, for the GOP, that's probably largely ok. They've got their tax breaks through, pork shoveled out, shown lobbyists they can still get the job done and gotten some very pro-business seats locked down on the SCOTUS. It's probably in their best interest to take a back seat and let Dems get some seats so that when the economic train derails (and it's going to soon judging by the writing on the wall), they can blame it on the Dems and that unstable Trump agenda, which wasn't theirs. 

Losing a relationship with the President isn't a big deal with what they've gotten done, especially if the Dems come in and he starts having to make deals to get things like his wall done. If anything, that helps them when it comes time to push a traditional RHINO.

Quote:Will individuals be more willing to speak out about other issues? People on the foreign relations and intel committees HAVE to be concerned (with the possible exception of Nunes). 

I would say they have been.

Quote:Will this resistance and the public perception of failure endure speed up the downward spiral of Trump's behavior rather than correct it? (I think the former; He does not learn from errors and lashes out at friends as well as enemies. Why would that lessen rather than increase?)

His base has been largely easily manipulated. As long as that continues, the grass-roots blind eye, I don't think it matters. 

Quote:What is the effect of Helsinki on foreign policy--e.g., combined with the erratic ill-treatment of our NATO allies? It has to be clear that the leader of the free world and the world's most powerful military and military alliance cannot adequately prioritize foreign policy issues or distinguish friends from enemies.  He called for a summit which embarrassed him and showed of Putin's skill at manipulation--and came away calling it a "victory."


Related to the previous question--what will be the effect on the EU and NATO. No papering it over anymore.  They have to be planning how to go it alone, or nearly alone, unable to count on US leadership and resources to the degree they used to. (I know Trump defenders want that; but outside that bubble, and outside Russia, China, and NK, that is generally bad thing)

Those kinds of relationships are — in my limited experience — beyond the scope of the president. Take the Obama years, and the link below.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/us/politics/isis-centcom-intelligence.html

There are powers-that-be that need an end which may be completely different than what an administration wants. And they're going to make sure that end comes to pass. In that case, it was altering intel reports regarding the effectiveness against ISIS. If Trump wants to flip a switch and tell NATO to figure out its own problems, there's going to be pushback from intelligence and military communities that have worked for decades to develop allies and communication.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Dill - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 03:04 PM)jj22 Wrote: I've never seen Fox turn on Trump the way they did yesterday. It was significant. Now will it last? I don't know. But yesterday was noteworthy.

That's why I'm saying, this might be a tipping point.

No doubt Fox will be back on board in a week, recognizing that Trump's failures are theirs as well, since they are most responsible for keeping his base together.

But once the fracture has occured, it will be easier to fracture again.  And I expect Trump's behavior to get worse, not better.  Nothing about the Helsinki fiasco was his fault, right? Not listening to advisors was NOT the problem. The press is, and commentators who turned on him.

It think from now it will be harder to paper over Trump's behavior, especially since he cannot correct it and has a habit of turning on friends.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - XenoMorph - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 02:35 PM)GMDino Wrote: I just don't trust that the republicans in office will "do" anything though.  They will be "disappointed" in his comments.  They will say they don't "like" what he said.  Then they will support everything they can to get their agenda through.

pretty sure you just described every politician in DC Dem or Rep....

Its why some of us voted for the non politician option


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - GMDino - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 03:29 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: pretty sure you just described every politician in DC Dem or Rep....

Its why some of us voted for the non politician option

The "non-politician" is the problem.

And the "politicians" from his party are protecting him.  So how'd that work out?  Mellow


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Nately120 - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 03:29 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: pretty sure you just described every politician in DC Dem or Rep....

Its why some of us voted for the non politician option

I can see why people would be tempted to give a non politician a shot, but I think the bloom may be off the rose on that one.  But you never know, and it wouldn't surprise me if being a celebrity with no experience continues to be a popular selling-point for the presidency.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Griever - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 03:29 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: pretty sure you just described every politician in DC Dem or Rep....

Its why some of us voted for the non politician option

yeah, ya'll did a real bang up job there


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Dill - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 03:27 PM)Benton Wrote: At this point, it largely doesn't matter. There's a decent chance of midterm mashup (growing more in the left's favor every time Trump curtsey's to a foreign power). And, for the GOP, that's probably largely ok. They've got their tax breaks through, pork shoveled out, shown lobbyists they can still get the job done and gotten some very pro-business seats locked down on the SCOTUS. It's probably in their best interest to take a back seat and let Dems get some seats so that when the economic train derails (and it's going to soon judging by the writing on the wall), they can blame it on the Dems and that unstable Trump agenda, which wasn't theirs. 

Losing a relationship with the President isn't a big deal with what they've gotten done, especially if the Dems come in and he starts having to make deals to get things like his wall done. If anything, that helps them when it comes time to push a traditional RHINO.

Concisely expressed and persuasive.  

(07-17-2018, 03:27 PM)Benton Wrote: His base has been largely easily manipulated. As long as that continues, the grass-roots blind eye, I don't think it matters. 

Those kinds of relationships are — in my limited experience — beyond the scope of the president.
Take the Obama years, and the link below.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/us/politics/isis-centcom-intelligence.html

There are powers-that-be that need an end which may be completely different than what an administration wants. And they're going to make sure that end comes to pass. In that case, it was altering intel reports regarding the effectiveness against ISIS. If Trump wants to flip a switch and tell NATO to figure out its own problems, there's going to be pushback from intelligence and military communities that have worked for decades to develop allies and communication.

Not always. We pretty much have FDR (plus a world war) to thank for the UN, World Bank, IMF, NATO etc., even if Truman had to see all that through. You are right that these complex foreign policy relations are "beyond" any one president, if by that you mean to directly control. But it is not beyond any one president to maintain existing alliances, and it is not beyond any one to sabotage them. I think this president may effect a massive re-arrangement, and there will be little our own intel community and DOD, or comparable "in-house" forces, can do about it. (I made this argument earlier this year regarding the Far East as well.)

I say that because Trump is forcing allies to step back and re-consider their national interest. The problem goes beyond Trump, since there is a significant segment of the American voting public who embraced his bad judgment as good sense. They cannot be voted out of office and will remain long after Trump. Our allies understand this. The impetus for change will come largely from the EU itself, and will be hard to stop once put in motion. Countries have to figure out how to insure economic and military security. That imperative drives them to consider alternatives, to create, and sometimes go with, a plan B or a plan C.  


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - Benton - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 03:36 PM)GMDino Wrote: The "non-politician" is the problem.

And the "politicians" from his party are protecting him.  So how'd that work out?  Mellow

(07-17-2018, 03:39 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I can see why people would be tempted to give a non politician a shot, but I think the bloom may be off the rose on that one.  But you never know, and it wouldn't surprise me if being a celebrity with no experience continues to be a popular selling-point for the presidency.

Politicians did this to politicians by making politician a bad word.

There's nothing wrong with someone who dedicates their life to public service. There are thousands of local, state and federal level elected candidates who are good people with the best public interests in mind. But the angst over politicians and the distrust largely comes from... politicians. They do it every time they blame society's problems on "the other side" and, indirectly, when they abuse their office for personal gain. When politicians lobby to raise the retirement age to 70, vote to increase each taxpayer's debt and then announce their retirement at the ripe old age of 48, it makes it much easier for people like Trump to con the public into thinking he's different. Which, of course, he isn't, he's just abused the system in a different way.


RE: Helsinki--the Tipping Point? - GMDino - 07-17-2018

(07-17-2018, 03:56 PM)Benton Wrote: Politicians did this to politicians by making politician a bad word.

There's nothing wrong with someone who dedicates their life to public service. There are thousands of local, state and federal level elected candidates who are good people with the best public interests in mind. But the angst over politicians and the distrust largely comes from... politicians. They do it every time they blame society's problems on "the other side" and, indirectly, when they abuse their office for personal gain. When politicians lobby to raise the retirement age to 70, vote to increase each taxpayer's debt and then announce their retirement at the ripe old age of 48, it makes it much easier for people like Trump to con the public into thinking he's different. Which, of course, he isn't, he's just abused the system in a different way.

And there's nothing wrong with voting for a non-politician.

Unless it's a "rich" guy who lies continuously, has no self-control, is thin-skinned, has tons of personal baggage in the form of publicly embarrassing events and business failures, etc.

Voting for him because "Clinton" is just insane.  Especially when that is the fall back position when confronted with the question of "why" they voted for hm knowing all of HIS faults.