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+--- Thread: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? (/Thread-Coronavirus-Information-who-do-you-trust)
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 01:36 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: So at this hospital, do they employ disease prevention strategies such as wearing masks, social distancing, limiting the size of groups, conducting virtual visits or meetings, etc to protect their patients and staff from Covid? You know, all the things you want to get rid of?
Of course, but then again I am not advocating for high risk or sick individuals to go to crowded areas, not social distance and not wear masks.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 01:42 PM)PhilHos Wrote: I already feel bad enough. Stop making it worse.At least you can add 1+1. As pointed out earlier, I cannot.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - fredtoast - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 04:15 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Of course, but then again I am not advocating for high risk or sick individuals to go to crowded areas, not social distance and not wear masks.
Not every high risk person has someone to go shopping and everything for them. So are those people just SOL?
That's like saying "Lets do away with DUI laws and people who don't want to get killed in car wrecks can just stay off the roads. We can't take away peoples freedom to get drunk."
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 02:19 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: The mask and face coverings recommended by the CDC keep your germs to yourself. They do not protect the wearer from getting sick. You work at a hospital and don’t understand that after 9 months?! You don’t know why some people wear procedure masks and others wear N95 masks? At a hospital? Really?
Suggestion those at increased risk of death should wear masks to prevent them from getting infected because you don’t wear a mask is completely asinine unless those masks are N95 masks. And we would need enough of those for 60% of the population. We don’t have enough.
You don’t even know the basics.
I'm in IT bro. I don't care how a mask works. They give me a mask and tell me I have to wear it when out and about. I do that. I put on a mask where required. Other than that I forget Covid is even a thing. We never stopped hanging out with our friends and their families. Our kids never stopped hanging out with their friends. Our whole little Village is the same way. Covid, thankfully, has effected my family and my friends' families very little.
I stated my view and said I know it's unpopular. Not sure what else to say. Maybe we can revisit this a year from now when we will have a better understanding of the numbers and the virus.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Belsnickel - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 04:11 PM)bfine32 Wrote: What if we don't know the true number infected? Wouldn't it be more conclusive to use a known number such as total population?
Not an attempt to mitigate the deaths just something that stuck my QA nerve.
So, for a QA/stats/data nerd it's important to look at many different numbers and think about these things, I get it being a stats/data nerd. The statistic I am specifically referring to is the case-fatality ratio, or CFR, which is a better statistic for understanding the danger of a given condition, especially one as new as COVID-19. It is only calculated based upon the cases of the condition, not the whole population. The reason the CFR is a better statistic for this data is because of the percentage of the population that has contracted it only being 2% at this time. Now, the cases are under reported, but the number is still not likely any higher than 3-4%.
Interestingly enough, the CFR is a better looking statistic for our COVD-19 response than using the crude death rate (CDR) which is based on deaths per 100,000 of the population. That number for us is around 60 per 100k, or 7th highest according to this JHU page, where with CFR we are 11th. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
That says we are doing better at treating the disease than we are at containing the spread.
For the record, COVID-19's CDR is only lower than heart disease and cancer in this country. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm#:~:text=Data%20from%20the%20National%20Vital%20Statistics%20System&text=The%20age%2Dadjusted%20death%20rate,2017%20to%20723.6%20in%202018.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 02:10 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: Which is 2%...I'm not being a smart ass. Please help me understand how .02 is 2.0%.
The problem is that you could never truly establish a causal link, but correlative evidence does exist. We see cases drop when closures happen and rise when restrictions are lifted. Cases in my city skyrocketed with the university being back in session. Once the students were removed from the classrooms and things closed back down, we saw a decline in cases. The correlative evidence is there.
I need to find forums with dumber people so I can feel more capable.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - PhilHos - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 04:20 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Not every high risk person has someone to go shopping and everything for them. So are those people just SOL?
Not really. Not with things like UberEats, GrubHub and grocery stores offering delivery. It's easier than ever before to be a grumpy old hermit.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - PhilHos - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 04:47 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I'm not being a smart ass. Please help me understand how .02 is 2.0%.
I need to find forums with dumber people so I can feel more capable.
2% written in decimal format is 0.02
100% is 1.0
50% is 0.5
10% is 0.1
.02% is 0.0002
If you want to find what 25% of something is you would multiply it by 0.25.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - fredtoast - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 05:12 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Not really. Not with things like UberEats, GrubHub and grocery stores offering delivery. It's easier than ever before to be a grumpy old hermit.
And if they run out of bread then just let them eat cake, right?
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - fredtoast - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 02:47 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Shutting down our entire Country and economy for 200,000 deaths out of 325M people over 7 months; no freakin' way! Far much more harm than Covid itself.
What is the death toll cut off for you?
1 million?
10 million?
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 05:16 PM)PhilHos Wrote: 2% written in decimal format is 0.02
100% is 1.0
50% is 0.5
10% is 0.1
.02% is 0.0002
If you want to find what 25% of something is you would multiply it by 0.25.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 05:41 PM)fredtoast Wrote: What is the death toll cut off for you?
1 million?
10 million?
Why does there have to be a cutoff? I see 200K deaths (almost all elderly and many with comorbitities) after 7 months vs crashing our economy and all kinds of ancillary harms from the extended lock downs. Pretty sure we would notice a spike of hundreds of thousands or millions.
This might be a Fox News talking point, but it is absolutely true. If 80 year old Pelosi (see: high risk group) is comfortable enough to go to and into a salon and walk around with no mask, then i'm going to question how deadly this virus really is; especially after her continual rhetoric about wearing masks. Either she has a death wish based on her own rhetoric or Covid is not as deadly as it is getting played up to be. I'm going with the latter.
What death toll is the cutoff for you Fred? 1? 1000? 10,000? Would you crash the economy and lock everyone down for 1000 elderly high risk people? And I keep saying it like a broken record, that the ancillary harms from the lock downs may come close to or outweigh the damage from Covid itself when all is said and done.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 02:26 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I appreciate your response and read the whole thing. I don't have time to go point by point.
One thing I will comment on is the nursing home deaths. You asked how those nursing homes got infected if they were isolated? You are apparently not familiar with our awesome Governor Cuomo, plus multiple other states who FORCED nursing homes to bring back Covid positive patients. And at least in NY, Trump brought a Naval ship in and constructed extra beds when we thought the Hospitals were going to get overwhelmed and instead of using those resources for the infected nursing home patients that were infected, Cuomo made the nursing homes take back the infected patients. Cuomo even praised Trump early on for everything he did for NY.
You didn’t answer my which is how did the get infected if they were isolated? The answer, obviously, is that they weren’t isolated. Someone brought the virus to them or they left and brought it back with them.
No, I’m not familiar with Cuomo’s policies. Or the specifics of what happened, but a person can return to a nursing home, or work, or resume their normal activities around others after testing positive provided they have cleared the isolation protocol which is self isolation at home for at least 10 days from the start of symptoms or testing positive, fever free for 24 hours, and basically respiratory symptom free without the need for retesting. The reason for this is we have learned people can continue to test positive for weeks or months, but their viral load is so low they aren’t contagious. I don’t know the specifics of what occurred in NY, but just because a nursing home resident tested positive doesn’t mean they can’t return. It’s a question of when can they return.
You can also cohort sick patients together. I don’t know if that’s what happened, either. But, it’s another explanation.
Quote:Lets assume all my numbers are wrong.
We don’t need to assume. They’re demonstrably false. Just google calculate mortality rate.
Quote:Can we at least agree there are approx 325,000,000 people in the US,
Yes.
Quote:there are as of today 6.61M cases
Maybe known cases, but not total cases.
Quote:and 197,00 deaths over a 7 month period?
I’ll agree, but that means can’t suggest the number is inflated based upon fraud.
Quote:And can we agree that 40+% of all Covid deaths are from nursing homes?
I don’t know if that is true and based upon what I’ve seen so far I’m not going to take your word for it without data.
Quote:And can we also agree the high risk population is Elderly, Elderly with comorbitities and anyone with comorbitities?
Yes.
Quote:If we can agree on those readily available facts, how can you look at those numbers and think we should be locked down (causing huge problems, maybe worse than Covid itself), destroying our economy, canceling sports for kids, destroying peoples livelihoods and keeping kids out of school?
First of all I didn’t call for a shut down. I stated if we wore masks, practiced social distancing, and other mitigation strategies like limiting large gatherings or unnecessary face to face interactions we probably could have avoided a shut down. But, instead Trump was holding rallies and lying to America instead of doing any of those. He helped create the very conditions which lead to the shut downs instead of promoting the behavior to avoid the shut down.
Quote:I'm sorry, that is completely irrational to me. Open fully, wear a mask if it makes you feel better and get on with life. Not directed at you personally.
Wearing a mask doesn’t make me feel better. It helps decrease the chance I will spread the virus to you. Until you understand this simple and basic concept you’re not qualified to be involved in a discussion regarding infectious disease control.
Quote:EDIT**** I will add this, if 60% of all people have comorbitities and are truly at risk, then why is such a small amount of people effected out of the 6.61M? Once you subtract elderly and elderly with comorbitities I believe you at far less than 100,000. Again, showing the risk is minimal, especially when compared to the entire population of 325,000,000.
LOL. Everyone of those 6M cases are affected because they are infected. Sixty percent are at increased risk because of other medical conditions. Not all medical conditions create an equal increased risk. Someone with COPD has a higher increased risk than someone with a BMI of 31. It’s like everyone who jumps out of a plane is at increased risk of death. But the one’s jumping with a parachute have a lower increased relative risk than the ones jumping without a parachute.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 02:47 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Hey, Please re-read my post because I made a couple minor edits and at the end it was not directed at you personally and I typed that, but for some reason only the 2 "<<" showed up.
Oh, that is easy. We are a healthcare facility. We wear masks, wash our hands, sanitize, etc. Being a Hospital we have a lot of sick and elderly that come through our doors, obviously, lol. That would fall under "protect the at risk population". I'm talking about schools, sports, playgrounds, businesses, theaters, entertainment, etc.
All those places have people with medical conditions that place them at increased risk.
Quote:If you are an at risk person you probably want to wear a mask, and stay away from as many people as you can. Shutting down our entire Country and economy for 200,000 deaths out of 325M people over 7 months; no freakin' way! Far much more harm than Covid itself.
Except the masks you’re talking about don’t prevent them from getting sick. It’s one of the conservatives talking points they use as misinformation to complain about masks.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - bfine32 - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 05:41 PM)fredtoast Wrote: What is the death toll cut off for you?
1 million?
10 million?
Cutoff before what?
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 03:19 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I get it, i'm going to say "to prevent the spread of Covid" and you are going to say "gotcha"!The masks I have to wear (I don't go into the actual OR rooms while patients are there) are just the standard white/blue cloth type masks you see everywhere. We don't wear them in our office, only out in the open Hospital areas.
But what I meant about "no masks" was a mask mandate. If someone feels, as you do, that masks are a good thing, then by all means wear a mask everywhere and social distance. So I still believe open fully, no masks (unless you want to) and get back to normal life.
Those are procedure or surgical masks. If I’m infected with Covid, but don’t know it because I’m in the incubation period or I’m asymptomatic wearing a procedure mask might prevent me from infecting you.
So the mask you wear at work protects the patients from YOU. It doesn’t protect you from the patients. That’s why the people working with known or suspected Covid have totally different precautions than you. None of those precautions are to make us “feel good.” That’s a ridiculous comment and immediately identifies the person making that comment as someone who doesn’t have the first clue about infections disease controls such as standard precautions, droplet precautions, or aerosol precautions. It’s an immediate internal eye roll for me.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Nately120 - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 04:34 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: I'm in IT bro. I don't care how a mask works. They give me a mask and tell me I have to wear it when out and about. I do that. I put on a mask where required. Other than that I forget Covid is even a thing. We never stopped hanging out with our friends and their families. Our kids never stopped hanging out with their friends. Our whole little Village is the same way. Covid, thankfully, has effected my family and my friends' families very little.
I stated my view and said I know it's unpopular. Not sure what else to say. Maybe we can revisit this a year from now when we will have a better understanding of the numbers and the virus.
You live in a place with low population density it seems, and that's pretty impactful. I live on a dirt road in PA and I've been working from home for a little over 3 years, so I know zero people who have had covid and technically it doesn't even matter to me if the country every opens again.
With that being said, I realize that not everyone is in my position. 5 years ago I was living in Pittsburgh and worked in the operations department of a university and I wasn't married to a woman who has an essential job and makes a living wage so things would have been a 180 to the way they are now. I do try to keep some perspective on things, though.
I suppose I could say that this country could stay locked down forever for all it matters because my office is in my basement and my job involves sifting through people's bankruptcies and medical debt. I could even go further and say that it's tough luck for people who are having trouble paying the bills now because they should have gotten low paying jobs that serve the country like me instead of chasing their high salaries and their private industries.
But that would be a d-bag move and lack some actual perspective.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Nately120 - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 05:12 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Not really. Not with things like UberEats, GrubHub and grocery stores offering delivery. It's easier than ever before to be a grumpy old hermit.
Trust the desperate and poor to handle your life-line of sustenance at your own risk. Hope they don't covid-up your dinner! Hell, I assume those damn miscreants are starting the "spit in the grubhub challenge."
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/30/746600105/1-in-4-food-delivery-drivers-admit-to-eating-your-food
(09-16-2020, 06:02 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: If 80 year old Pelosi
Nancy Pelosi is 80? If she is actually that old people should get off her ass for looking so damn old. When I'm 80 I plan to have spent about 15+ years rotting.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - oncemoreuntothejimbreech - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 04:10 PM)Mickeypoo Wrote: Of course I would agree that 9M is too many, but we are at 200K and no one can prove with any type of hard evidence that continued lock downs will result in a drastic decrease of cases or deaths. I should also state, because I didn't think to, that I was for the lock downs in the beginning and think they were a good idea. At this point I think we need to be fully open. I also consider the ancillary harm from the lock downs vs Covid itself.
With a mortality rate of 3%, 9M deaths is what you will get if we do what you suggests. Everything you want to get rid of is designed to reduce that 9M to as close to zero as possible.
Despite your claims there is no hard evidence these strategies work we can compare the data from from before and after these mitigation strategies are used and between areas where they are and aren’t used and draw conclusions based upon the data. These studies exist. While you admittedly have ZERO data to inform your opinion. Well, zero data after we determined your numbers are completely incorrect.
RE: Coronavirus Information...who do you trust? - Mickeypoo - 09-16-2020
(09-16-2020, 06:55 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Trust the desperate and poor to handle your life-line of sustenance at your own risk. Hope they don't covid-up your dinner! Hell, I assume those damn miscreants are starting the "spit in the grubhub challenge."
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/30/746600105/1-in-4-food-delivery-drivers-admit-to-eating-your-food
Nancy Pelosi is 80? If she is actually that old people should get off her ass for looking so damn old. When I'm 80 I plan to have spent about 15+ years rotting.
Botox!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Pelosi