(02-28-2022, 11:07 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: I really believe that Putin hoped this would all be wrapped up by this point. The political and economic pressures are mounting. This is why he agreed to meet Zelensky today and has been waving the nuclear threat stick around at him. Putin may very well drop a tactical nuke in the Ukraine, if he feels he is already a big enough pariah. Not sure how the West would respond to that.
This is my biggest fear at this point.
The fact that this hasn't gone well for Putin has only made the situation worse imo. Not that I wanted it to go well...... But at this point Putin has to feel pretty humiliated and I don't see him backing down partly because of that. I believe Putin will either do a full scale invasion or drop a nuke, but neither situation has a good outcome.
(02-28-2022, 11:31 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: This is my biggest fear at this point.
The fact that this hasn't gone well for Putin has only made the situation worse imo. Not that I wanted it to go well...... But at this point Putin has to feel pretty humiliated and I don't see him backing down partly because of that. I believe Putin will either do a full scale invasion or drop a nuke, but neither situation has a good outcome.
(02-28-2022, 11:38 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: Not sure. One moment I hear it's a full invasion the next I hear Russia is "still holding back the big guns".
Fair enough. The meaning of "full invasion" is certainly open to some interpretation.
(02-28-2022, 11:31 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: This is my biggest fear at this point.
The fact that this hasn't gone well for Putin has only made the situation worse imo. Not that I wanted it to go well...... But at this point Putin has to feel pretty humiliated and I don't see him backing down partly because of that. I believe Putin will either do a full scale invasion or drop a nuke, but neither situation has a good outcome.
Ignoring the fact that you clearly aren't using the same definition of "full scale" as the rest of us, why in the world do you think he would "drop a nuke?"
I'm not sure I've seen a more irrational take than this.
-The only bengals fan that has never set foot in Cincinnati 1-15-22
(02-28-2022, 11:38 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: Not sure. One moment I hear it's a full invasion the next I hear Russia is "still holding back the big guns".
Well, as of yesterday morning, they had only deployed roughly a third of their previously massed force.
It is a "full invasion" though, because of the level of commited force and their apparent targets (e.g., the capitol). This is not like short incursion into the Donbass to "secure" the newly recognized states there.
I would expect them to keep at least a third of their forces in reserve, still on Russian and Belarussian soil, over the next week or two.
(02-28-2022, 11:31 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: This is my biggest fear at this point.
The fact that this hasn't gone well for Putin has only made the situation worse imo. Not that I wanted it to go well...... But at this point Putin has to feel pretty humiliated and I don't see him backing down partly because of that. I believe Putin will either do a full scale invasion or drop a nuke, but neither situation has a good outcome.
One thing to keep in mind is that in 2014, Putin said that if the west cut Russia off from SWIFT that it would be a declaration of war. Now, Russia has spent the past 8 years trying to set up alternatives and safe guards for this, utilizing China as a work-around for this, but I'm not sure how far along they have gone with that. So it will be interesting to see what happens in the aftermath of these sanctions.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
(02-28-2022, 11:07 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Putin dishes the lies. But he most certainly does not believe them.
Yes, he does NOT believe his own lies. At least deliberate propaganda, such as that "Nazism" is rife in the Ukraine.
There are several surprising features about the current information/propaganda war:
1. The poor quality of Russian disinformation. Way below their usual standards.
2. The effective preemption of Russian propaganda, first by the US in the lead up to the invasion, and then afterwards by the Ukrainians themselves (LOL "Mom, I've been captured" ), and Western Europe.
3. The weakness of Russian military morale, the confusion of Russian troops regarding their own unit objectives, geographical location, and rationale for fighting.
HOWEVER, Putin DOES appear to have believed a range of faulty assessments regarding how the Ukraine, the US, Europe, his own citizens, and the rest of the world. I cannot emphasize enough what it means that militarily and politically dependent Kazakhstan has refused to aid in the invasion, an Orban in Hungary has condemned it. Are the rats jumping ship or refusing to even get on now?
Commentators who have known Putin over the past two decades have remarked on how isolated he has become from Russian society, increasingly distant even from his own advisors/supporters. If you've been following his speeches and writing since Munich, then you know he has moved away from locating Russia in the international system as an equal player in a multipolar word based on shared legal norms to speaking of Empire, of restoring "greatness" through territorial acquisition and re-integration into a supposedly greater "historical Russia." Especially since last year's "On the Historical Unity of the Russian and Ukrainian People" (July 2021) http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181, his reasoning has become convoluted, emotional, and error riddled.
I think it likely that he has gone the path of so many dictators--as their paranoia increases, they weed out advisors who speak truth to power and advance those who tell them what they want to hear. A year or two of such prefered "advice" often leads such leaders to overestimate their own powers and underestimate their adversaries. (There is actually quite a bit of research on this subject.)
So in a roundabout way, Putin does believe his own lies, in the sense he has constructed around him an information environment filled with information/intel he WANTS to believe. He just doesn't yet grasp the dis-intel he acted on were his own lies, constructed in detour through his own advisors, which led him to accept them as fact coming from outside sources. Call that a "hypothesis," at least.
(02-28-2022, 12:41 PM)Dill Wrote: Yes, he does NOT believe his own lies. At least deliberate propaganda, such as that "Nazism" is rife in the Ukraine.
There are several surprising features about the current information/propaganda war:
1. The poor quality of Russian disinformation. Way below their usual standards.
2. The effective preemption of Russian propaganda, first by the US in the lead up to the invasion, and then afterwards by the Ukrainians themselves (LOL "Mom, I've been captured" ), and Western Europe.
3. The weakness of Russian military morale, the confusion of Russian troops regarding their own unit objectives, geographical location, and rationale for fighting.
HOWEVER, Putin DOES appear to have believed a range of faulty assessments regarding how the Ukraine, the US, Europe, his own citizens, and the rest of the world. I cannot emphasize enough what it means that militarily and politically dependent Kazakhstan has refused to aid in the invasion, an Orban in Hungary has condemned it. Are the rats jumping ship or refusing to even get on now?
Commentators who have known Putin over the past two decades have remarked on how isolated he has become from Russian society, increasingly distant even from his own advisors/supporters. If you've been following his speeches and writing since Munich, then you know he has moved away from locating Russia in the international system as an equal player in a multipolar word based on shared legal norms to speaking of Empire, of restoring "greatness" through territorial acquisition and re-integration into a supposedly greater "historical Russia." Especially since last year's "On the Historical Unity of the Russian and Ukrainian People" (July 2021) http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181, his reasoning has become convoluted, emotional, and error riddled.
I think it likely that he has gone the path of so many dictators--as their paranoia increases, they weed out advisors who speak truth to power and advance those who tell them what they want to hear. A year or two of such prefered "advice" often leads such leaders to overestimate their own powers and underestimate their adversaries. (There is actually quite a bit of research on this subject.)
So in a roundabout way, Putin does believe his own lies, in the sense he has constructed around him an information environment filled with information/intel he WANTS to believe. He just doesn't yet grasp the dis-intel he acted on were his own lies, constructed in detour through his own advisors, which led him to accept them as fact coming from outside sources. Call that a "hypothesis," at least.
Like all of the worst narcissists, he really believes he can throw out whatever he wants and will it into reality. In his view, everyone else's job is just to believe him, regardless of facts, logic or research. I have little doubt that he is on the far end of the psychopathy spectrum, like most despots and narcissists.
There are three things that I know he has a pathological hate of:
1) (what he views as) traitors
2) Germans
3) Americans
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
(02-28-2022, 11:07 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: The Ukrainians can't move forward from their positions to take advantage of the potential turkey shoot since the Russians have almost complete air superiority and available air support. So, instead, they are holing up in the cities creating "kill zones" for the coming assaults, which will now inevitably be infantry going house-to-house, block-by-block. And that is going to be ugly, costly and time-consuming.
Let's hope the tactics can change with an influx of aircraft.
There are also rumors of pilots coming with the jets, as individual volunteers for the Ukrainian Foreign Legion.
(02-28-2022, 12:41 PM)Dill Wrote: There are several surprising features about the current information/propaganda war:
1. The poor quality of Russian disinformation. Way below their usual standards.
2. The effective preemption of Russian propaganda, first by the US in the lead up to the invasion, and then afterwards by the Ukrainians themselves (LOL "Mom, I've been captured" ), and Western Europe.
So now that it's not about Trump, Russia sucks at disinformation and propaganda?
-The only bengals fan that has never set foot in Cincinnati 1-15-22
(02-28-2022, 05:15 PM)basballguy Wrote: So now that it's not about Trump, Russia sucks at disinformation and propaganda?
There is a lot less American GOP party members sitting over in Europe reading Facebook/Twitter and watching foxnews. You know, the ones most likely to take the bait.
(02-28-2022, 11:38 AM)Matt_Crimson Wrote: Not sure. One moment I hear it's a full invasion the next I hear Russia is "still holding back the big guns".
Depends on which propaganda and rhetoric you are following.
This entire situation is just beyond fascinating to me.
It's absolutely horrible for the Ukrainian people and the Russian people, but it's insane how this has basically united the world against one common enemy.
It actually kind of gives me faith in humanity. No one wants war except Putin. There's a lot of good people and leaders of countries out there.
At this point I just don't see what the end game is here for Putin. I don't think he's going to nuke anyone, I think that's manufactured by fear mongering people on the internet based on Putin's posturing...and that's all it was...posturing. He's not near stupid enough basically end his reign in an instant by launching a nuke.
I wouldn't be surprised by a ceasefire here soon. Part of me thinks he's in too deep to just turn around, though. That would be a gigantic blow to his ego as well.
Wonder how those closest to him and the oligarchs still view Putin. Wonder if a hit on him is on the table anytime soon. A lot of powerful people in Russia are losing a ton of money right now and it seems like a ton of them don't back what he is doing.
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