How good can Tee Higgins be?

[fredtoast]

(04-13-2021, 12:48 PM)PDub80 Wrote: So, now you know more than Nextgen Football? So, now you know more than fivethirtyeight? https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-new-metric-shows-how-good-nfl-receivers-are-at-creating-separation/amp/

The SOE numbers in this article have nothing to do with the nextgen separation stats you keep citing.

But I would like to point out one thing.  According to this article   In 2018 Jarvis Landry had an exceptional year according to his "separation over expected".  Not only was it the 4th best in the league that year it was also the 13th best over a three year span ('17-'19).  Here is his production that year

81 rec... 976 yds... 12.0 avg... 54.4 catch %... 6.6 yds/target... 13 rec 20+ yds

Then in 2019 Landry had a HORRIBLE year according to his "separation over expected".  It was the 6th worst that year and the 13th worst over the same three year span.  Here is his production that year

83 rec... 1174 yds... 14.1 avg... 60.1 catch %... 8.5 yds/target... 20 rec 20+ yds

So while they provide  lot of fancy talk about how complicated and exact their formulas and analysis are in the end it looks like it is a completely useless stat.

**waits patiently for Pdub to personally attack me instead of explaining why Landry's SOE has a NEGATIVE correlation to his actual production**