How good can Tee Higgins be?

[fredtoast]

(04-13-2021, 01:05 PM)Whatever Wrote: The bigger issue is Burrow threw the 3rd highest % of passed to targets with a defender within 1 yard of them and the 5th worst expected completion % last year.  When you compare that to the numbers of playoff QB's, it quickly becomes apparent that having your QB try to repeatedly force throws in to covered targets isn't a recipe for winning football.  

This is like the stat about how teams win because they run more often when in fact teams that are winning run the ball more often because they are ahead.

People are confusing "correlation" with "causation".

Burrow HAD to force more passes into tight targets because he had zero running game and was always behind.  The playoff QBs are usually in much fewer "third-and-long" situations, and they are usually ahead more often so they can just play it safe and check-down or punt instead of forcing dangerous low-efficiency passes.