06-22-2021, 10:06 AM
(06-22-2021, 12:32 AM)CarolinaBengalFanGuy Wrote: I would assume so during the democrat primaries when everyone has a D beside their name. I disagree though I believe there are plenty of people that vote strictly on the D and R in the general election. Though there's certainly a larger group in between those extremes.
I am curious as to how much of a percentage the legitimate swingers are that can and have voted in either direction.
Estimates from studies range from 6% to 30%. This link is from Nate Silver's site, but the author is pretty good in describing the results of the studies (which I have read most of): https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/just-how-many-swing-voters-are-there/
The tl;dr is that the higher 30% number is based on registered voters, not likely, and about half of those were actually the "I don't like my party's person, so I won't vote" types, not actually swing voters. So the real range of estimates comes in between 6% and 16% of voters being what we would call "persuadable" or swing voters. The majority of people vote party-line.
"A great democracy has got to be progressive, or it will soon cease to be either great or a democracy..." - TR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
"The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little." - FDR
