The Fight Against Fascists (I Can't Believe This Exists)

[hollodero]

(06-22-2021, 10:06 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: Estimates from studies range from 6% to 30%. This link is from Nate Silver's site, but the author is pretty good in describing the results of the studies (which I have read most of): https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/just-how-many-swing-voters-are-there/

The tl;dr is that the higher 30% number is based on registered voters, not likely, and about half of those were actually the "I don't like my party's person, so I won't vote" types, not actually swing voters. So the real range of estimates comes in between 6% and 16% of voters being what we would call "persuadable" or swing voters. The majority of people vote party-line.

That is an important and interesting statistic. I'd take from it that the most extreme discrepancy in a presidential election is around a 45-55 result, realistically it's way closer, and probably also way closer in some crucial swing states. I suspect the number of swing voters that usually are just discontent with the present and hence tend to vote opposition is high in comparison. 
Meaning, any person running three times for president for one party is basically guaranteed to end up president. Or any type of person running three concecutive times. That's the scary part.