09-12-2021, 09:18 PM
(09-12-2021, 09:09 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I remember when bilechick did something similar on his own 23 I think. Analytics can be a little too dumb sometimes lol.
Yeah, he was at his 28. The analytics aren’t ‘dumb’. Quite the opposite, these equations are usually created by very intelligent mathematical minds. They are guidelines that will generally give you a positive outcome in the long run. The numbers say to be very aggressive on fourth and 1 or less because you will convert them often enough to have a positive expected points outcome. All that means is that you will convert enough of those that end up leading to points for your team more than you fail them and it leads to points for the opposing team. In short, do this and you’ll score more points than they do. We saw that today in overtime. The last I checked, the numbers say to go for any 4th and 1 beyond your own 9 yard line. I wouldn’t personally do that, but I am very much in favor of being much more aggressive.
