09-12-2021, 09:59 PM
(09-12-2021, 09:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I’m not sure I’m 100% following. The conversion rate on a 4th & 1 or shorter in the NFL was around 77% at the midway point last season. I think that is probably high if we were to look at historical data. I would expect it to be between 65-70% but still significantly higher than 50%. I could probably gather that data and present it if I can find play-by-play CSV files.
I think the lack of crowd noise will make last year a bit of a statistical anomaly for 4th down decisions. Easier to do anything when you can hear your quarterback as clear as day.
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