09-12-2021, 10:16 PM
(09-12-2021, 09:54 PM)CardCounterChris Wrote: the problem is that 77% yeilds 0 points while 23% almost certainly concedes points. Analytics isn't just about success rate, but expected value for those decisions. There's no way that decision yields more points than it loses.
It’s not accurate to say that the successes don’t have points assigned to them. They absolutely do, and you can find that by finding the amount drives that had a successful 4th down conversion and how many points were scored on these drives.
A better metric is using win probability, which is what the 4th down decision bot uses. I posted that reference earlier, but we had an 88% chance to win. By going for it and getting it, our chance goes up to 92%. Failing it drops it to 82%. The bot rated it as a toss up decision.
