09-13-2021, 05:44 PM
This is one of those situations where I trust analytics a lot more than I trust the prevailing philosophies of fans. In this case the analytics are essentially a push, so either decision is justifiable.
Fans have a significant bias from their own flawed understanding of probabilities (this isn't just me saying things, this is backed up by decades of cognitive scientific research starting with Kahneman and Tversky) and their incomplete pictures of the relationships between what can happen and what does happen. "Common sense" in this case is better described as "common misconception".
Coaches are taking 4th down risks much more often than they used to league-wide because that's what the analytics tend to recommend, and this incident is an extension of that philosophy.
Fans have a significant bias from their own flawed understanding of probabilities (this isn't just me saying things, this is backed up by decades of cognitive scientific research starting with Kahneman and Tversky) and their incomplete pictures of the relationships between what can happen and what does happen. "Common sense" in this case is better described as "common misconception".
Coaches are taking 4th down risks much more often than they used to league-wide because that's what the analytics tend to recommend, and this incident is an extension of that philosophy.
