Russia begins moving troops into eastern Ukraine

[Dill]

(03-10-2022, 06:16 PM)hollodero Wrote: I hear that all the time. I, however, think that is the same old Putin, maybe dropping his mask a little. But the goal of his is hardly new, and neither are the means he's willing to use. He might just be running out of time, to fulfil his masterplan of first destabilizing the west and then just take the pieces he wants for the Czar empire within his lifespan.

Of course, it is all too big a goal and megolomaniac, but Putin always was that way as well. He thought the west and their alliances could be effectively destroyed by supporting some nationalistic right-wing nutjobs and some other slick manoeuvers. It was hubris, as is the current invasion part of his plan.

Thanks for responding, H. A couple of questions--

Howcum you think Putin was "always that way"?  I haven't seen any evidence he was "megalomaniacal" before the limited Georgia invasion in 2008, which seemed to me, arguably, a rational response to Georgia's attempt to join NATO and attack on Ossetia. A similar case could be made for the Crimean Anschluss* in 2014 (I believe SSF has argued along this line as well.)

I don't think Putin ever thought that "the West" could be destroyed by supporting right wing authoritarians (e.g. Orban, Trump, Le Pen, Yevtushenko) and disinformation campaigns. But he certainly thought it could be weakened.

Anyway, when you compare Putin's most notable writing and speeches, and behavior, from the first decade of the century with those since 2018, there is quite a difference I think. The rational armature is gone, along with the sense of an achievable long game. No more talk of multipolarity and appeals to international norms/rule of law. Rather he seems no longer to be addressing the rest of the world at all, just Russians, and those without a secure history of Ukraine/Russia at that. More surprising is the (seeming) sudden inability to correctly gage international reactions to total invasion of a sovereign neighbor, so indispensable to a good long game. Hannity's "three-dimensional chess player" had checked out by 2019 for sure. Now Putin seems to be behaving like Saddam and other autocrats who shape their immediate security/advisory environment by gradually excluding/punishing truth tellers and rewarding yes-men. Much easier to do there than in the US (though not impossible in the US, as a recent president demonstrated). 

What makes you think Putin was ALWAYS megalomaniacal and looking to restore empire? Anything he wrote or said before 2010? Just wondering. I see incremental changes from 1999 onward, which appear to be in part driven by his inability to master democratic norms, especially a free press, and post 2014 by his suspension from the grown ups' table, e.g., the G7. I actually don't think he had a clear idea of what the new Russia should be like when Yeltsin appointed him temporary premier in 1999, and no long game for getting there. He sought to partner with the US, with partial success, after 9/11 (arguing against his own advisors) and recognized how important Russia could be in international affairs/conflicts, successfully parlaying that into global power; the US recognized it too, as signalled by his inclusion in the Iran Deal and the WTO and the G7 (pre 2014).