Trade Down Mock

[leonardfan40]

(04-12-2022, 03:26 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: My issues with this draft:

If we are trading for a division rival, I don't want a fair deal from them. I want to rake them over the coals. Getting a first round pick for a mid second and mid third is a great deal for them. It would be a fair-ish to slightly underwhelming deal for us with any given team, but only getting those picks from a division rival who just got to hand pick their player who they now get for at least 5 years is a terrible deal for us.

For reference, Baltimore traded up from 52 to 32 in 2018 and it cost them a 2nd round pick in 2018 and a 2nd round pick in 2019 which ended up being the 53rd overall pick in that draft (as well as a 4th round pick swap).

I'd accept nothing less than that from a division rival looking to trade up.

Bonitto is not a player that the Bengals typically take. I would be surprised if they took a guy who has no value in the run game. That said, I don't think he'd be a terrible pick, but these small-ish pass rushers are risky. They're also volatile. We all remember how Vic  Beasley caught fire in 2016 and played 5 more years after that for teams just waiting for him to do anything close to that again. Bruce Irvin had similar peaks and valleys.

I don't like the Kinnard pick because I don't like this whole "take a tackle and convert him to a guard" thing. We tried it with Carman, he struggled. If we're going Oline, give me a guy who I can trust can come in day 1 and play at a high level. I don't want a guy who needs to learn a new position.

David Bell tested horrifically. a 6'1" 210 lb receiver running a 4.65 with a 33" vert, 118" broad, 4.57 shuttle and 7.14 3 cone is scary as shit. According to Mathbomb, the average WR from 1987 to 2022 had a 4.58 40, 34.5" vert, 119" broad, 4.29 shuttle and 7.06 3 cone. Spending a 3rd round pick on a guy who is below average in every single speed, power and agility drill is too risky for my blood. Lots of productive college players flame out in the NFL with better athletic profiles than that.

Jones is a slot corner, only 5'8". We need someone who can contest Apple on the outside. I have no faith that we'd get much value out of Jones for at least 2 to 3 years.

I do like Kolar though, and don't have a problem with Flott in the 5th.

As far as the trade goes, trade value chart has it lopsided for Cincy giving up 600 pts but getting 660 back. Now I don’t think those charts are all that great but it gives you the ballpark. In 2018 Bal moved up 20 spots and basically only gave up a future 2nd rounder. Future picks are not as valuable as current year picks (would you rather have $100 today or $100 a year from now).

In this case they’d only be moving up 14 spots and giving up a day 2 pick to do it. Now maybe we could try to get their 4th rounder too but that would push things way in our favor. I’d obviously take the extra pick if it was there to be had. And yes this could strengthen Bal but it also strengthens us with another valuable player.

For perspective, in 2020 the Chargers moved from 37 to 23 and only gave up pick 71. That’s 14 spots, just like the trade in this mock. Only difference is pick 23 is more valuable than 31.

For Bell, there are more than just measurables that make up good WR’s. For instance, based on those numbers Tyler Boyd would be a completely “average” WR out of ALL WR’s tested. A ton of those never accomplished anything in the NFL including guys with much better numbers than Boyd. Then of the ones who actually have done anything I’d say Boyd would still probably be better than average of those guys. Bell’s tape speaks for itself, he’s an NFL WR. His numbers aren’t the best, but when combined with his tape they are more than good enough to be a starter at the next level.

I agree on Jones, I didn’t want to reach at CB and he was a great value but not really what we are needing at the moment. That’s why I doubled up. If it played out like this I’d be looking to add Steven Nelson or someone similar in FA. I was also thinking Hilton’s contract was up next year but looks like we’ve got him locked up 3 more years. May flip him out.

I also agree Bonitto is not the guy we usually take, but I’d argue he is exactly what we need at this point. We have DE depth. We lack pass rush depth outside of Hendrickson, Hubbard and hopefully Ossai. We need a guy who can wreak havoc as we have multiple “well rounded” guys back there who are mediocre at best getting after the QB