Trade Down Mock

[*ochocincos*]

(04-12-2022, 10:16 PM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Kupp started as a slot WR and has evolved into a more well rounder WR especially this year. He’s still his best in the slot but as his route running improved he’s been outside more often and to open up the best matchups. Last year he was almost 50/50 slot/outside (still got most of his yards in the slot).

And I’m not saying Bell is Kupp or anything, just pointing out that 40 time, vert/broad jumps, etc do not determine if a WR will be successful.
Kupp absolutely beats Bell in short area burst which is important, but Bell is a better route runner at this point than Kupp was coming out. Bell won’t do the same things Kupp does but he’s absolutely athletic enough to produce.

The point is, people are putting way too much stock in workout numbers. His weren’t good, but they were good enough to show he can compete at this level if he makes up for it in other aspects of his game. He absolutely has those aspects to his game. Writing him off based on pad-less workouts would not be wise. Used the right way he can absolutely be a very good starting WR in this league. His tape speaks for itself.

Look at his top college performances and matchups:
2020 Greg Newsome (Browns 1st rounder) 9 catches 78 yards in 4 of the other 5 games played that season (covid shortened) he had over 100 yards
2021 Denzel Burke (likely first rounder) 9 catches 76 yards vs Burke and 11 catches 103 yards overall that game.
2021 Iowa 240 yards
2021 MSU 217 yards
2019 Iowa 197 yards and had 100 yard games in 6/12 contests as a true freshman

Treylon Burks workout numbers are pretty comparable to Bell’s. Bell’s tape and production are better. Burks will still be a first rounder most likely while Bell will probably fall to round 3 or later. Acting like one can’t play while the other can is ridiculous but if it plays out that way some team will get a steal.

200 yard games against top ranked college teams are rare, multiple for one player is very rare. Putting up 76+ yards a matchup against first or likely first round CB’s is also a good sign.

You don’t have to agree with me, just getting my thoughts down for a later date.

I get your point.
I just have a hesitation when his testing was that bad.
Again, I think he'll still produce some, but I don't think he'll be a consistent 1000+ yard WR.
Maybe he will.
Let's see over the course of the next few years.

EDIT - One thing I forgot to comment on was your comparison between Burks and Bell.
Burks is about 13 lbs heavier than Bell, but he ran a 4.55 compared to Bell's 4.65.
That's a BIG difference.
Burks actually had a decent RAS - https://twitter.com/mathbomb/status/1499522923455033346?lang=en

Looking back, Bell's RAS actually matches up closely with former Bengal Auden Tate.
Tate:
40 - 4.68 (4.66 pro day)
10 - 1.64 (1.60 pro day)
vert - 31.0
broad - 904
shuttle - 4.58 (pro day)
3-cone - 7.37 (pro day)

Keep in mind, Tate was also 15 lbs heavier than Bell too.
Bell tested just slightly better than Tate, but very very close.

Again, combine/pro day results not fully indicative of performance in the NFL, but it can help show things that tape may not. Tape can mask certain things because of the competition they're going against. Someone playing opponents in the Big 10 and someone else playing opponents in the PAC 12 are going against different players and schemes.

My expectation of Bell going into the NFL is Mohamed Sanu. As a slot receiver in a solid passing offense, he'd put up between 500-900 yards. If Bell's speed and agility really are more indicative of his performance and similar to Sanu, this is about the production I would expect from Bell in the NFL. And that's not bad. Sanu was a 3rd rounder too, and he was a solid WR2/3.