10-11-2022, 03:45 PM
(10-11-2022, 03:22 PM)Go Cards Wrote: The Bengals are only 16 yards per game EPA from being 21st in the NFL and if you think that can't flip quickly you'd be mistaken. They're not as good as you're claiming, to this point anyway.
Like I've pointed out in other posts about this is that their parameters are too broad in rankings. Many teams that are the league leaders in rushing are built for this and probably have lower tier QB's and WR's that are never going to grade out highly in passing ratings. Their are just so many variables that have to be factored in that its just not black and white.
Most teams that do have the QB's to do so are usually strapped by the salary cap per the QB weighting down the cap and causing them to have lesser talent.
The Bengals have 3 great WR and a good QB, I promise you that when the run game begins to click and used as a weapon the long balls will open up.
Am willing to wager that the Bengals become a better passing team this year and score more points if they can establish the run and bring the safeties up, sure bet for you and your analytics. You cant lose, check your stats and name the wager.
The bolded makes no sense, or I am not understanding what you're meaning. EPA is expected points added, and encompasses interceptions, touchdowns, yards along with which half it is, where at on the field you are and time left in the half. Being "16 yards away from 21st" is either a misunderstanding of what you're trying to read, or an incorrect assessment. Or, amazing math somewhere.
If you think that the conclusion has been reached by just simply looking at who is good at rushing and then correlating that to their passing effectiveness, then you aren't thinking very deeply about it. This has been studied with a wide variety of QB tiers and analyzed by season, week, drive to see how their rating/EPA per attempt fluctuates by how good the running game is performing. If what you believe to be true, was true, then QB efficiency would increase as the running game performs better. It doesn't. For instance, Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees never saw a notable increase in efficiency while their running games were hot.
To your wager, we would need to lay out more precise parameters. What are you meaning by "establish the run", and how would we dictate who wins the wager? For instance, Burrow had a ~90 QB rating from week 1-4, where the running game was averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Against the Ravens, the running game averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and Burrow posted an 82 QB rating. At season end, I would want to see clear evidence of the running game performance correlating to passing game performance. From a statistical standpoint, that would mean a correlation coefficient of 0.4 or better to demonstrate that the relationship is at least moderate.
