Israel/Hamas War Superthread

[Dill]

(04-15-2024, 10:09 PM)samhain Wrote: Arguments aside, the attacks from Iran have to be the most telegraphed act of war in recent history.  It seemed imminent for more than a week and when it happened it was very underwhelming.  
2 half cocked theories I heard: Iran telegraphed it's plans through the Jordanian government to make sure the west would neutralize the incoming drones/missles and avoid significant retaliation.  
The second one is that the attack fell flat because it was intended.  Iran merely lobbed 150 missiles into Israel to make them show their defenses and what they could handle.

Iran wanted all parties to know of the attack ahead of time, and to know that the escalation was ended when the attack was over; plus it used mostly slow moving easy to shoot down drones, which would be consistent with a goal of "saving face" AND not doing enough to merit a serious counter attack, with the added benefit of sussing out Israeli defenses and US reaction. Though as has already been mentioned, Netanyahu is not especially predictable at the moment.

And now HE has to save face, a desperate politician not known for great political judgment, but tying US foreign policy to Israel's foreign policy. 
So still a very dangerous moment.

(04-15-2024, 10:09 PM)samhain Wrote: I dunno if either are true, but on its face the lack of damage is a bad look for Tehran.  It makes them look ineffective.

Look ineffective to whom?  Iran has finally attacked Israel directly, scaring the bejeezus out of ordinary Israelis for a few hours; they could not have known it was not intended to do significant damage when the sirens went off. Hamas and the Houthis likely wanted the attack, which cemented Iran's credibility with them. Hezbollah will applaud it even if they didn't want it. Saudis and Turks are not breathing a sigh of relief.

At one level it's symbolic; the calibration suggests no serious damage intended.

But at another it is not. Israel WAS directly ATTACKED from Iranian soil, and saved by the US, who's made it clear it wants "little brother" to stop picking unnecessary fights which force all parties up the ladder of escalation.  So a serious threshold has been crossed and have to wait and see how much deeper we'll be drawn into what could be another foreign war quagmire.