Iowa Predictions

[BmorePat87]

Iowa is a week away. Republicans are making the secret ballot binding this year. That means that the actual voting process will determine which candidate the delegates will support. In the past, the voting, while not binding, was used by the media to say who "won" Iowa. In reality, it wasn't accurate. In 2012, it was Santorum, Romney, then Paul. In reality, Paul took 22 of 28 delegates and Romney took the other 6. Santorum's campaign failed to get any delegates elected in the actual caucus. Since delegates don't have to state who they're aligned with, Ron Paul delegates basically gamed the system.

But that has changed, so it's really less of a caucus now and more of a primary.

For Democrats, they have a complicated caucus system in which you win state delegates by winning precincts and counties. At the end of it all, the party counts things up and gives you a share of the national convention delegates based on how many state delegates you won.

So for your prediction, you are telling us the outcome of the Republican secret ballot and the outcome of the Democrat delegate allocation.

Mine:
GOP:
Trump- 27%
Cruz- 25%
Rubio- 18%

DNC:
1. Sanders
2. Clinton