01-27-2016, 01:24 PM
I don't see any way Donald Trump gets the Republican nomination. He only has 30% of the party, and he is so strongly opposed by so many others that I don't see him ever getting a majority. As people drop out more of them will go to candidates other than Trump. HOWEVER I could be wrong. And even if I am right about the nomination there is still another hightmaer possibility
Trump splits the Republican party, and Hillary nose dives in the polls. Trump either runs as a independant in the general election, or if he wins the Republican nomination it forces a moderate Republican to run as a third party. No one of the candidates can win enough electorial votes te get elected. This throws the election to the House of Representatives.
Due to gerrymandering of districts most seats in the House are held by the most extreme members of each party. The districts arec drawn up so that everyone knows which party will win. So the winner usually has to be the most extreme to win. The Republicans hold a commanding control of the House (234 TO 201) This means the House is one of the few groups that has enough nut job members to elect Donald Trump. He would not have to come close to winning the general election. If he could just draw 20% that would easily be enough to send it to the house. No matter how weak the Democrat candidate runs then party ticket will get 35% of the votes. I know you would have to look at it state by state and see how many electorial votes could be won in each, but I am guessing that a three way split would hurt both major parties enough keep either of them from getting the necessary votes.
Trump splits the Republican party, and Hillary nose dives in the polls. Trump either runs as a independant in the general election, or if he wins the Republican nomination it forces a moderate Republican to run as a third party. No one of the candidates can win enough electorial votes te get elected. This throws the election to the House of Representatives.
Due to gerrymandering of districts most seats in the House are held by the most extreme members of each party. The districts arec drawn up so that everyone knows which party will win. So the winner usually has to be the most extreme to win. The Republicans hold a commanding control of the House (234 TO 201) This means the House is one of the few groups that has enough nut job members to elect Donald Trump. He would not have to come close to winning the general election. If he could just draw 20% that would easily be enough to send it to the house. No matter how weak the Democrat candidate runs then party ticket will get 35% of the votes. I know you would have to look at it state by state and see how many electorial votes could be won in each, but I am guessing that a three way split would hurt both major parties enough keep either of them from getting the necessary votes.
