02-24-2016, 12:02 PM
(02-24-2016, 09:54 AM)Belsnickel Wrote: He won't be able to win the general election. He can win the nomination for the GOP because of the large field splitting things out so much, but there are more people in the GOP, and the country, that dislike him than like him. That being said, the third party/independent candidates will make the general interesting because I can see a lot of GOP types going that route instead of voting for Trump.
Not that long ago I'd be in agreement with you. Now I'm not so sure. Polling over hypothetical match ups are never that reliable. Once the match up becomes a reality and people are faced with the actual choice those opinions tend to change. I think Trump/Sanders is a major win for Trump and I'm starting to think that Trump/Clinton will be very close. Look at swing states alone. I can see Trump's message playing well in Ohio and I can absolutely see him winning Florida as well. People tend to think Hispanics won't vote for Trump but Cubans tend to vote conservative and, I realize I'm generalizing, they don't really identify with other Hispanics and generally wouldn't mind seeing illegals deported. As someone who grew up in CA I can absolutely tell you that there is a huge amount of animosity between Hispanics of different national origin. I believe I told you guys about the Puerto Rican girl I dated who would be furious if people thought she was Mexican.
So, give Trump Ohio and Florida and he absolutely has a path towards an EC victory. Again, I didn't think this possible just a month or two ago, I see it becoming progressively (no pun intended) likely though.
