So Trump?

[*bfine32*]

(02-24-2016, 11:56 AM)BmorePat87 Wrote: It's not false. Trump has struggled to pass his 30-35% ceiling in national polls among all GOP candidates. As candidates have dropped out, we have seen Cruz and Rubio rise in the polls while Trump has stayed the same. Trump is still winning as there are enough candidates to split the remaining 60-65% of Republicans, but if Kasich dropped out and either Cruz or Rubio, the remaining candidate would be well pass 40-45%. 

Trump is benefiting from the fact that the GOP field is stubborn and their egos prevent them from getting behind one candidate. He turns off too many Republicans to ever get above 51% of their support. As Matt said, Republicans will opt for a 3rd party or stay home in November. He had a 35% unfavorable rating with the GOP in January (only Bush was higher). In the latest Ohio poll, he scored the highest on GOP candidates you would definitely not support with 32% of GOP voters saying they wouldn't back him if he won the nomination. 

So has he done well is the sense that he has won 3 of 4? Sure. Has he done well in the sense that he has garnered a majority of Republican's support? No. 

Trump just got 46% of the vote in Neveda. This was more than Cruz and Rubio combined. if something drastic doesn't happen by Tuesday you can pretty much write Trump in for the GOP nod.

Regardless of what polls say; Republicans will not stay at home and give the White House to Clinton because they don't like Trump. They are smart enough to realize that a president goes the way of his/her cabinet.