So Trump?

[Benton]

(02-24-2016, 11:34 AM)Sovereign Nation Wrote: Sorry to say, but this is false.  Trump is dominating the polls.

He has lead by double digits in NH, SC and even NV.

Again Iowa is the lone loss, and that had Cruz using deceit to garner the needed people.  Trump didn't lose by double digits.  Like Cruz and Rubio has.

Now as to 3rd party.  Sure, I can see the party, not embracing Trump.  However I think if Trump is forced to 3rd party, that will just lead to more people wondering WHY?  Why isn't Trump the nominee when he has done so well in the primaries?

Well, no.

Trump's number is leading because his base doesn't change much. 30-40%. That leaves 60-70% voting for [other]. And that's divided between four(ish) establishment candidates. That 60-70% is going to vote for whichever of those candidates isn't named Trump.

As I said, if Cruz and Rubio stop butting heads (doesn't look like they will) or enough of the supporters for the other camps move to one of those two (which is starting to happen now that Jeb's out), you'll see one of the two establishment guys picking up more delegates. Right now Cruz and Rubio are brokering for who that's going to be, and who is going to get the push.

The only way I see it working out for Trump is if the party can't convince Rubio or Cruz to take a back seat before Super Tuesday. Leap Day could make a big difference this year.

As to the third party, it's like the first part of the post. He's doing well because he's one of several. It's not like the Dem race where it's the lesser of two evils, for GOP voters it's '6-of-1, half dozen of another.' Same thing, more or less, happened with Ross Perot. There's always going to be a fringe segment that enjoy being different and supporting a candidate that's seen as an outsider, regardless of how well his policies match up to their interests. Trump is right, many of his supporters would still vote for him if he shot somebody. Why? Because they don't care about the man or his actions, they care about how they perceive their individuality. It's not about Trump, it's about them.