04-28-2016, 11:56 AM
https://nflbeliefs.wordpress.com/2014/11/27/wide-receiver-hand-size-to-catch-rate-study/
Furthermore we believed there would a direct connection between hand size (measured from pinky to thumb) to the rate at which you caught accurate passes.
To test this theory, we used Pro Football Focus’s catch rate, which is just the number of drops divided by the number of catchable balls, over the past 3 seasons. The only players used were ones who had at least 100 catchable targets over the past 3 years and any player without a specific hand length mentioned did not qualify. This eliminated a number of older players like Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin because there hands were not measured at their combine or pro days. It also eliminated players like Wes Welker and Victor Cruz because they also did not have hand measurements done.
We were left with 42 players who fit the criteria and we plotted the data points.
. . .
These data points do not seem to indicate that hand size has much of an impact on the drop rate. Even further, when you look at the correlation coefficient, an equation that measures the relationship between two variables, it’s clear this data indicates there is almost no correlation at all.
It seemed like a sound theory; players with smaller hands would have less room for error when catching passes and vice versa; thus this would affect the rate at which they would drop balls. This idea seemed reaffirmed when someone like Larry Fitzgerald, who has legendary hands and a very low drop rate (2nd lowest in our study) has massive hands measured at 10.5 inches, but the data clearly indicates otherwise.
Of course, with a sample size this small, it’s very possible this conclusion could change over time and more and more players have hand measurements at pro days and the combine. For now, with the information we do have, no team should be ever avoid drafting a receiver with small hands because they believe they will have trouble catching passes, or simply believe a player with large hands should catch the ball with ease.
Go to link to see graph of plotted data points.
Furthermore we believed there would a direct connection between hand size (measured from pinky to thumb) to the rate at which you caught accurate passes.
To test this theory, we used Pro Football Focus’s catch rate, which is just the number of drops divided by the number of catchable balls, over the past 3 seasons. The only players used were ones who had at least 100 catchable targets over the past 3 years and any player without a specific hand length mentioned did not qualify. This eliminated a number of older players like Andre Johnson and Anquan Boldin because there hands were not measured at their combine or pro days. It also eliminated players like Wes Welker and Victor Cruz because they also did not have hand measurements done.
We were left with 42 players who fit the criteria and we plotted the data points.
. . .
These data points do not seem to indicate that hand size has much of an impact on the drop rate. Even further, when you look at the correlation coefficient, an equation that measures the relationship between two variables, it’s clear this data indicates there is almost no correlation at all.
It seemed like a sound theory; players with smaller hands would have less room for error when catching passes and vice versa; thus this would affect the rate at which they would drop balls. This idea seemed reaffirmed when someone like Larry Fitzgerald, who has legendary hands and a very low drop rate (2nd lowest in our study) has massive hands measured at 10.5 inches, but the data clearly indicates otherwise.
Of course, with a sample size this small, it’s very possible this conclusion could change over time and more and more players have hand measurements at pro days and the combine. For now, with the information we do have, no team should be ever avoid drafting a receiver with small hands because they believe they will have trouble catching passes, or simply believe a player with large hands should catch the ball with ease.
Go to link to see graph of plotted data points.
