11-11-2016, 04:38 AM
(11-10-2016, 07:12 PM)Dill Wrote: I am not in the Middle East any more. Left in 2011.
My question about "interference" arose from the fact that Saudi Arabia and Iran are already participants in the fight. Iranian militia have, tensely, been in the field fighting on the same side as the US in Iraq for two years now. Saudi is one of the secondary causes of the rise of ISIS, owing to four decades of funding Islamicism in the Middle East, but that rise has finally worked against their interests.
The NI article you posted is interesting, and recognizes the conflicting options open to the US. But unlike the folks at NI, I think either Saudi or Iranian domination of Syria is a better outcome than continued existence of the Islamic state, though that would mean continued armed conflict in the region. In part because it means Saudi boots on the ground rather than Americans.
Or at least I thought that on Monday. Since my original comments, Trump has become president of the US, so what future US policy in the region might be like is a mystery. Erdogan has said he will not let the US operate from Turkey if Trump is president. If he means that, and Trump uses his executive "first strike" prerogatives, I forsee chaos. I no longer have any idea whether Iranian/Saudi help is good or bad. None of our "allies" in the region has any idea what the consequences of helping (and being identified with) the widely-perceived-to-be-anti-Muslim Trump administration will have for their own credibility.
I agree a Saudi or Iranian controlled Syria would be better for US interests than the continuation of ISIS. Saudia Arabia has supplied and funded ISIS. Iran supported the al Maliki Iraqi government which led to a sectarian civil war. Both have played a part in the creation of ISIS as part of their Sunni/Shia proxy war. Extending their respective influence is their primary goal, not defeating ISIS. Defeating ISIS is just a means to an end, but only if it helps them accomplish their goals. Iran wants to gain control so that's why they are willing to send Iranian militia. Saudi Arabia funded ISIS to combat the Iranian Shia influence in Iraq and Syria, but they are willing to send troops to defeat ISIS if it allows them to occupy Syria. They have been interfering for years. If you removed both from a multinational task force to defeat ISIS, each would continue to meddle covertly (as they have already done) to tip the balance of power in their favor.
