so much for draining the swamp

[Dill]

(11-15-2016, 07:20 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: You say he could set us back 70 years, but what we've been doing lately hasn't really been working out that well for us.

What if Trump helps us avoid a Cold War and we start getting rid if ISIS jointly with Russia? Would that be considered moving us ahead 70 years?

We are getting rid of ISIS right now, at least the root and trunk. And you just raised one of my biggest concerns about Trump—Putin can play him. He increased bombing of Aleppo the day after Trump was elected. The Russian economy is about the size of Italy's so I don't think we'll see him projecting much power anywhere but around Russian borders. A friend in the White House will greatly help this.

How do you define “not working out”?  The US is still world’s pre-eminent military power, with the capacity to form coalitions with dozens of countries and lead them to achieve foreign policy ends. Bush 41 led 34 countries in the Persian Gulf War, including Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia which footed much of the bill. Obama pulled the P5 plus the EU together to achieve the Iran Deal.  
 
At the moment, no one else in the world can do this. Not China. Not Russia.  No one.

This capacity rests in part on a system of treaties with Asian and European partners like SEATO and NATO and our mutual security treaties with Japan and South Korea which have been honored for years. It is also cemented in place by trade and aid. The institutions which emerged to stabilize the world after WWI--World Bank, the IMF the UN—are all headquartered in the US, which still exercises great influence over them.

The perception that the US is STEADY, that it does not do policy 180s with its allies, that it respects international law (including bans on torture and the use of nuclear weapons) that it is unwilling to act or react militarily without thinking, is the final key to this tremendous capacity. It took a massive hit from the Iraq invasion—when millions around the world protested and only 4 countries showed up to invade (Poland with its hat out)-- but has been restored over the last 7 years (except on Fox News, where chaos reigns everywhere outside the US). But even Bush 43 never publicly wondered why we didn’t just take Iraq’s oil after invading the country, like pirates.

If we question or go back on our treaties or even send signals we are thinking of doing this, we push allies to rethink their national interest and find other arrangements to secure it. Projecting a right-wing domestic policy frame on the world to view allies like welfare moochers who need to find a job may do as much damage to US interests as a willingness to use Nukes.  That includes policy based on the belief that the world only respects "strong" presidents and "tests" weak ones, so foreign policy is constantly reacting to or preventing "tests" with little attention to the complex interplay of politics, economics and culture driving political change in various regions of the world..