01-03-2017, 05:23 PM
(01-03-2017, 04:41 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Waiting for a compensatory pick is not a losing strategy. The Bengals have 11 draft picks in the upcoming draft. You can bet that many of them won't make the team and wouldn't survive on the practice squad.
A compensatory pick in 2019 isn't the worst thing in the world if it ends up being a 3rd rounder.
As far as teams over valuing draft picks, I don't think there is ANY team that needs a QB that won't likely be using a first round pick on one of them. If you could get a QB like AJM for a second round pick, where they don't get the 5th year at the cheap rookie contract like a first rounder I would think a lot of teams would be interested.
If he refused to sign after the season, he would have to get a really good offer elsewhere which would, as a QB, almost certainly end up being a 3rd round pick (compensatory).
So, say the Browns trade one of their 2nd rounders to the Bengals for AJM, and he wants to leave after one year, the Browns would likely get a 3rd round compensatory pick, which can now be traded, the following year.
That is kind of "hedging your bet" if they don't work out.
Again, I would not let him go for anything less than a second rounder.
You can trade a high pick for AJM who is 27 and you have one year of control or you can give a veteran FA a 1 year deal to "show me". Mike Glennon is basically AJ McCarron (same age more starting experience) but is a FA and requires 0 draft picks. The reason you'd trade a 3rd for McCaron over Glennon is he will be cheaper and he can't say no to playing for you for a year.
Is there a project QB in the 2nd a team likes? Why not draft him and use a Ryan Fitzpatrick type for a year to bridge the gap? You probably don't plan to go to the Super Bowl year 1 with McCaron or someone else as there aren't any teams "1 guy away" looking at the field, so Fitzpatrick could buy you a year of sometimes good sometimes bad QB play.
My point is people over value the asset we have without looking at the full landscape. Fans tend to over value players, teams tend to over value draft picks. The reality is somewhere in between for both. We have no real leverage in trading McCaron, if we keep him we let him walk for a pick that doesn't help this team for two years, and by that time the window on this team may be long closed.
