What would you do in Syria

[Bengalzona]

Some thoughts.

This was a stupid thing for the Assad regime to do. They were winning the war. The U.S. was leaving them alone. Russia was helping them.

I'm pretty sure that Russia had no idea that Assad would pull something like this. Ending the fighting in Syria was Putin's big 2017 project (besides rigging elections, which is more of an ongoing past time for him). The Russians had open dialogues with Iran, Turkey, the Kurds, Assad. Stabilizing Syria would be a feather in Russia's cap and help Putin's image building of Russia as a renewed superpower. I can pretty much guarantee that Assad is in Putin's doghouse over this (to the point the Russia may now consider removing him).

In that sense, the Trump admin made the right call here, even with the warning calls. We wanted to demonstrate force, but doing significant and/or permanent damage wasn't necessary. It was basically a staged and expensive temper tantrum. But it is a temper tantrum that can effectively make a point and may get the Russians to remove Assad without us having to do much more.

If Syria gets stabilized, demonstrated by the flow of refugees stopping and maybe many returning, then that will help stabilize Iraq and some of the political situations in Europe. Which, in turn, helps us. This strike may be cost effective.