What would you do in Syria

[hollodero]

(04-12-2017, 04:32 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: Some thoughts.

This was a stupid thing for the Assad regime to do. They were winning the war. The U.S. was leaving them alone. Russia was helping them.

I'm pretty sure that Russia had no idea that Assad would pull something like this. Ending the fighting in Syria was Putin's big 2017 project (besides rigging elections, which is more of an ongoing past time for him).

Some thoughts as well. I hate to be the cynic, but it struck me that in a sense Russia actually is a beneficiary of the whole Syria conflict. It brings waves of refugees to Europe, which is by far the biggest talking point for the destructive parties Putin supports. You can't influence elections in a more effective way.

Why would Putin want a solution then? If there were peace in Syria... the meddling gets a lot harder.
Which is why I believe Putin actually wants nothing of that kind to happen. I don't think human life interests that man the tiniest bit. What are Russians doing in Syria anyway. Nothing to ensure an Assad victory or an end to the fighting and killing. Nothing which would bring peace. But avoiding through their presence that anyone else could.

(04-12-2017, 04:32 PM)Bengalzona Wrote: The Russians had open dialogues with Iran, Turkey, the Kurds, Assad. Stabilizing Syria would be a feather in Russia's cap and help Putin's image building of Russia as a renewed superpower. I can pretty much guarantee that Assad is in Putin's doghouse over this (to the point the Russia may now consider removing him).

In that sense, the Trump admin made the right call here, even with the warning calls. We wanted to demonstrate force, but doing significant and/or permanent damage wasn't necessary. It was basically a staged and expensive temper tantrum. But it is a temper tantrum that can effectively make a point and may get the Russians to remove Assad without us having to do much more.

If Syria gets stabilized, demonstrated by the flow of refugees stopping and maybe many returning, then that will help stabilize Iraq and some of the political situations in Europe. Which, in turn, helps us. This strike may be cost effective.

Your optimism is honored, but even if Putin isn't as sinister as I think he is, peace is as far away as ever, the strike didn't do anything stabilizing. The US made itself a referee throwing flags in a civil war, that's about it. I don't want to criticize the move or the US. Just the cynicism that goes with all this was so clear when Spicer talked barrel bombs. Which kill several thousands civilians every year. But no one is throwing a flag there, barrel bombs are "in bounds" and that needed to be clarified. That's the bottom line of the message to Assad, keep on killing, just do it by means we don't deem too despicable.