What would you do in Syria

[Bengalzona]

(04-15-2017, 12:08 AM)Dill Wrote: That was an excellent post B-zona. I agree Syria is important to Russia. There is the warm water port, for example, and Syria makes Russia a military broker in the world oil economy.

It is better for Russia, less of a drain on resources, if Syria can be stabilized. It is a matter of economics as well as prestige I believe.

I would add there is another aspect of old Cold War style thinking here. The reduction of Russia's borders and power has not been easy on people like Putin, who remember the days when Russia was an equal player with the US. I think there are identity issues in part driving the investment in Syria. Russia's economy is the size of Italy's, but Russia leaders remember Superpower status. It still has a piece of that in the Middle East.

Thank you, sir.

The media here has been focusing on Russian influence in the U.S. election, Brexit, and possibly in upcoming German and French elections. Rightfully so. But there is another place they should be looking at Russian influence as well: Turkey.

Russia and Turkey have a history of enmity that goes back centuries. The Russians have coveted Turkey because of their control of the Bosphorus Strait, which strategically controls access to the Russia ports in Crimea and the Black Sea. Britain and France teamed with the Ottomans to keep the Russians from the area in the Crimean War during the 1850's. In World War 1, the Ottoman's sided with the Germans due to Russian incursions into their territory. The Amernian genocide had some of its roots in the Russian-Ottoman conflict. Turkey tried to remain neutral during World War 2, but initially supplied the Germans (until late in the war). During the Cold War, Turkey joined NATO and was one of our staunchest allies. They were a massive thorn in the side of the Soviet Union and the Cuban Missile crisis was directly linked to our stationing intercontinental ballistic missiles in Turkey. In the 60's and 70's, we worked constantly to broker an agreement between Greece and Turkey over the island of Cyprus, solely because we valued Turkey so much.

Today, things have changed dramatically. The election of Erdoğan has brought a highly conservative, fundamentalist Muslim-based government into power to replace the former liberal secular government. Turkey has always been a Muslim nation, but they have had the most secular and Western-friendly government of all Muslim nations since their founding in 1923. They are one of the few Muslim nations with a democratically-elected government. That too may change this weekend as Erdoğan has requested a referendum to expand his presidential powers to almost dictatorial levels. The referendum is a close vote, but is expected to pass. There is evidence that Russia is again making efforts to influence the vote, this time on behalf of Erdoğan.

Since Erdoğan's election, Turkey has created new ties with Russia and the two nations now have the closest relationship that they have had in two centuries. Russia has included Turkey, along with Iran and the Assad government, in its peace strategy discussions for Syria. The turning of Turkey from pro-Western to pro-Russian will be a monumental strategic coup for Putin. And it looks like that is taking place before our eyes.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/15/turkey-prepares-for-tight-vote-that-could-strengthen-erdogans-grip-on-power